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Post by carlton43 on Oct 30, 2024 9:55:11 GMT
'Next Time' the whole dynamic will have changed and the LDs are nearly certain to be under a massive squeeze from potentially four quarters. They may be back down to 6-seats? July was just collateral benefit from an anti-Conservative mass urge by the majority of the electorate. That has completely and utterly evaporated and 'Buyer Distress' has set in very early and with an urgency. 6 seats? Unseating most of a party's MPs is not something which is easy or especially common. The only way I could imagine the Conservatives regaining a lot of those seats is if they manage to clearly unite the right behind them. If on the other hand Reform continue their rise and possibly overtake the Conservatives... well, I would say it's more likely that Reform gains places like Sunderland before they gain places like Taunton. Your scenario is probably more valid than mine but your mistake was to see it in terms of the Conservatives alone, as the only party likely to relieve them of seats, and to underrate the volatility of the present political dynamic, which might see a mass collapse of support to parties with more serious and relevant policies. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Nov 2, 2024 13:38:27 GMT
Last few posts have been move to pretty maps, this thread was created as the best possible thing without full admin powers at present so let’s keep it on topic
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 4, 2024 12:10:28 GMT
 | | Lab | Con | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Telford & The Wrekin | 39.5% | 25.6% | 6.8% | 21.8% | 5.7% | 0.5% |
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| | | | | | | | | | North Shropshire | 8.3% | 25.0% | 48.0% | 15.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| | | Oswestry | 7.5% | 21.2% | 51.9% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| | | Shrewsbury & Atcham | 41.6% | 24.4% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 4.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | | | South Shropshire | 10.6% | 31.3% | 40.2% | 13.5% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| | | Bridgnorth | 17.5% | 35.7% | 19.7% | 22.9% | 3.9% | 0.3% |
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| | | | | | | | | | Shropshire UA | 21.8% | 27.3% | 30.2% | 16.5% | 3.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Shropshire | 27.5% | 26.8% | 22.7% | 18.2% | 4.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 4, 2024 12:28:05 GMT
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,267
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Post by WJ on Nov 4, 2024 16:47:11 GMT
| | Lab | Con | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Telford & The Wrekin | 39.5% | 25.6% | 6.8% | 21.8% | 5.7% | 0.5% |
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| | | | | | | | | | North Shropshire | 8.3% | 25.0% | 48.0% | 15.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| | | Oswestry | 7.5% | 21.2% | 51.9% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| | | Shrewsbury & Atcham | 41.6% | 24.4% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 4.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | | | South Shropshire | 10.6% | 31.3% | 40.2% | 13.5% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| | | Bridgnorth | 17.5% | 35.7% | 19.7% | 22.9% | 3.9% | 0.3% |
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| | | | | | | | | | Shropshire UA | 21.8% | 27.3% | 30.2% | 16.5% | 3.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Shropshire | 27.5% | 26.8% | 22.7% | 18.2% | 4.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
This feels about right, though I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the North Shropshire wards went Tory; maybe Shawbury would be a good candidate for that? How close was Reform to coming first in one or other of the Telford wards? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 4, 2024 19:50:57 GMT
| | Lab | Con | LD | Ref | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Telford & The Wrekin | 39.5% | 25.6% | 6.8% | 21.8% | 5.7% | 0.5% |
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| | | | | | | | | | North Shropshire | 8.3% | 25.0% | 48.0% | 15.8% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| | | Oswestry | 7.5% | 21.2% | 51.9% | 16.1% | 3.0% | 0.3% |
| | | Shrewsbury & Atcham | 41.6% | 24.4% | 14.2% | 14.6% | 4.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | | | South Shropshire | 10.6% | 31.3% | 40.2% | 13.5% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| | | Bridgnorth | 17.5% | 35.7% | 19.7% | 22.9% | 3.9% | 0.3% |
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| | | | | | | | | | Shropshire UA | 21.8% | 27.3% | 30.2% | 16.5% | 3.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Shropshire | 27.5% | 26.8% | 22.7% | 18.2% | 4.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
This feels about right, though I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of the North Shropshire wards went Tory; maybe Shawbury would be a good candidate for that? How close was Reform to coming first in one or other of the Telford wards? You would know better than me about North Shropshire - obviously the scale of the Lib Dem victory and the absence of any particular local strongholds for them leads the data to point to a big Lib Dem lead everywhere. Shawbury and The Meres do have a jhigher Tory share than most wards on my figures, but that isn't saying much. The closest Reform come in Telford is in Priorslee but that's because it's a three way marginal - they have a higher vote share in several other wards, but with Labour further ahead. The closest they come in the whole county is in Highley but again not due to a massively high vote itself but because it's close three ways (almost a four way marginal) |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 4, 2024 20:12:29 GMT
You always have the issue of local elections often being very personality driven in Shropshire - and this is true of town wards as well - which really complicates matters as there's no way of really modelling it.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 4, 2024 20:20:10 GMT
Yeah - North Shorpshire is a nightmare but was made easier in this election by the Lib Dems being so far ahead across the board. South Shropshire has much more strongly demarcated (and consistent) areas of partisan support.
It does look like some of the wards in Shrewsbury have a tendency to be much more strongly Labour (or less strongly in some cases) than they 'should' be. Not the easiest county to model especially as I don't know much of it well
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 4, 2024 20:31:52 GMT
Yeah - North Shorpshire is a nightmare but was made easier in this election by the Lib Dems being so far ahead across the board. South Shropshire has much more strongly demarcated (and consistent) areas of partisan support. It does look like some of the wards in Shrewsbury have a tendency to be much more strongly Labour (or less strongly in some cases) than they 'should' be. Not the easiest county to model especially as I don't know much of it well Ah the Bayston Hill problem. It probably really was good for Labour this year. It certainly won't have been at other recent General Elections! Of course we see this for other parties as well: the spectacularly bad Conservative result at Copthorne in 2021 was in part a personal rejection of the incumbent councillor, who was the very controversial leader of the council at the time. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 4, 2024 20:36:58 GMT
The Bayston Hill problem indeed lol
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Post by aargauer on Nov 4, 2024 20:42:26 GMT
You always have the issue of local elections often being very personality driven in Shropshire - and this is true of town wards as well - which really complicates matters as there's no way of really modelling it. Its a very odd place full of very odd people in my experience. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,786
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Post by john07 on Nov 4, 2024 20:54:30 GMT
You always have the issue of local elections often being very personality driven in Shropshire - and this is true of town wards as well - which really complicates matters as there's no way of really modelling it. Its a very odd place full of very odd people in my experience. Objection: All my family come from Shropshire. On reflection: Objection withdrawn! |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 4, 2024 22:55:50 GMT
Its a very odd place full of very odd people in my experience. Objection: All my family come from Shropshire. On reflection: Objection withdrawn! Jockey country I believe in your case. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 4, 2024 22:56:53 GMT
The Bayston Hill problem indeed lol It has what is probably the best fish and chip shop in Shropshire though. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,786
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Post by john07 on Nov 4, 2024 23:06:15 GMT
Objection: All my family come from Shropshire. On reflection: Objection withdrawn! Jockey country I believe in your case. Sir Gordon Richards was born in Donnington Wood which is a bit upmarket from, my birthplace, Donnington, I believe? Not to be confused with Castle Donington in Leicestershire, home of the racing circuit. I recall walking through Donnington when a car drew up and the driver asked me the way to the racetrack. I suspect that he was a journalist sent to cover a meeting and had got lost. I had to tell him that he was two or three counties away. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 5, 2024 0:07:48 GMT
Ah no, I meant as in the term being used for friend: ow bist old jockey and so on. God knows why. Though maybe that's more of a Madeley/Dawley thing.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,786
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Post by john07 on Nov 5, 2024 0:52:28 GMT
Ah no, I meant as in the term being used for friend: ow bist old jockey and so on. God knows why. Though maybe that's more of a Madeley/Dawley thing. My grandfather, from Ketley Bank, would use the variant: Well owd mon ow bist. My father swore it was authentic Anglo Saxon. I didn’t believe him. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 5, 2024 1:05:28 GMT
Ah no, I meant as in the term being used for friend: ow bist old jockey and so on. God knows why. Though maybe that's more of a Madeley/Dawley thing. My grandfather, from Ketley Bank, would use the variant: Well owd mon ow bist. My father swore it was authentic Anglo Saxon. I didn’t believe him. It's certainly authentic Middle English. |
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Nov 5, 2024 9:31:56 GMT
The upcoming council elections are going to be really interesting. I know council and national election patterns don't always match well, but I suspect we will see a lot of blue country turn gold.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Nov 5, 2024 9:32:44 GMT
The Bayston Hill problem indeed lol It has what is probably the best fish and chip shop in Shropshire though. The Shire Fryer? My family all swear by it. I've not made it over there yet. |
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