sanders
Green
Posts: 2,991 
Member is Online
|
Post by sanders on Oct 29, 2024 8:16:02 GMT
 | | Con | Lab | Ref | LD | Grn | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Worcester | 25.0% | 40.4% | 14.6% | 8.7% | 10.4% |
| 0.9% | | | Malvern Hills | 36.4% | 15.4% | 14.8% | 22.9% | 9.9% |
| 0.7% | | | Wychavon | 39.5% | 21.2% | 17.9% | 13.3% | 7.6% |
| 0.5% | | | Redditch | 31.7% | 36.7% | 20.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% |
| 2.1% | | | Bromsgrove | 32.8% | 26.8% | 19.0% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 0.3% | | | Wyre Forest | 32.1% | 30.3% | 21.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% |
| |
| | | | | | | | | | Worcestershire | 33.4% | 27.7% | 18.0% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | |
One of the better counties for the Tories really. Worcester was predictably awful, but Redditch was only narrowly lost, Wyre Forest one of few 1997 Labour seats they held while Bromsgrove is also the kind of seat Labour would have won elsewhere. Meanwhile with the Lib Dems winning 72 seats you'd expect West Worcestershire to have been one of them on past form (more so than eg. Tewkesbury next door). Droitwich & Evesham was never going to be vulnerable to anyone, but still it was a very solid vote share and majority..      The emrgence of the Lib Dems as a force in Bromsgrove town is novel (commented on elsewhere by No Offence Alan I think)I It looks like a map of France. |
|
|
|
Post by froome on Oct 29, 2024 8:45:14 GMT
The gap for Reform in the Staffs map is where they didn't put forward a candidate. The same is not true for many patches of white for the Lib Dems in said county. Tbf to the LDs, Pete is using a different scale for the two parties - white is below 4 for Reform and below 5 for the LDs. Using the same scale for both (and for ourselves) would alter things a little. |
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,028
|
Post by nyx on Oct 29, 2024 10:01:02 GMT
Pretty brutal for the Tories to be only 1.2% behind in Warwickshire but end up with only one seat to Labour's four. Stratford-on-Avon in the end didn't surprise me, the local council was LD-controlled for a time in the 90s, and there was always LD potential there, even though they had failed to realise it on a regular basis before. It's always been pretty weak territory for Labour however drawn. It was clear that the LDs would throw a lot of resources at the seat whereas the Tories had to spread theirs much more thinly. I thought the LDs would also win S Shropshire but they fell quite a way short in the end, perhaps they didn't put in quite enough resources. Given that 72 seats was very much at the upper end of our projections, we've taken that on the chin. File under "maybe next time". In hindsight it was perhaps a mistake to prioritize North Shropshire so much and just further increase an already extreme winning margin– South Shropshire, Hinckley, Kenilworth, West Worcestershire were all probably winnable. But I am not surprised the party was cautious given past experiences; one can hardly fault them for it. |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Oct 29, 2024 11:56:10 GMT
Given that 72 seats was very much at the upper end of our projections, we've taken that on the chin. File under "maybe next time". In hindsight it was perhaps a mistake to prioritize North Shropshire so much and just further increase an already extreme winning margin– South Shropshire, Hinckley, Kenilworth, West Worcestershire were all probably winnable. But I am not surprised the party was cautious given past experiences; one can hardly fault them for it. 'Next Time' the whole dynamic will have changed and the LDs are nearly certain to be under a massive squeeze from potentially four quarters. They may be back down to 6-seats? July was just collateral benefit from an anti-Conservative mass urge by the majority of the electorate. That has completely and utterly evaporated and 'Buyer Distress' has set in very early and with an urgency. |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Oct 29, 2024 18:11:10 GMT
In hindsight it was perhaps a mistake to prioritize North Shropshire so much and just further increase an already extreme winning margin– South Shropshire, Hinckley, Kenilworth, West Worcestershire were all probably winnable. But I am not surprised the party was cautious given past experiences; one can hardly fault them for it. 'Next Time' the whole dynamic will have changed and the LDs are nearly certain to be under a massive squeeze from potentially four quarters. They may be back down to 6-seats? July was just collateral benefit from an anti-Conservative mass urge by the majority of the electorate. That has completely and utterly evaporated and 'Buyer Distress' has set in very early and with an urgency. I doubt the Tories will have recovered sufficiently for that. Even if Labour bomb. |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
|
Post by john07 on Oct 29, 2024 18:17:03 GMT
| | Con  | Lab  | Ref  | LD  | Grn  | Ind  | Oth  | | | | | | | | | | | | | Worcester |   25.0% |   40.4% |   14.6% | 8.7% |   10.4% |
| Â Â 0.9% | | | Malvern Hills | 36.4% | 15.4% | 14.8% | Â Â 22.9% | 9.9% |
| 0.7% | | | Wychavon | 39.5% | 21.2% | 17.9% | 13.3% | 7.6% |
| 0.5% | | | Redditch | 31.7% | 36.7% | 20.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% |
| 2.1% | | | Bromsgrove | 32.8% | 26.8% | 19.0% | 14.7% | 3.3% | Â Â 3.1% | 0.3% | | | Wyre Forest | 32.1% | 30.3% | 21.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% |
| |
| | | | | | | | | | Worcestershire | 33.4% | 27.7% | 18.0% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 1.3% | 0.7% | |
One of the better counties for the Tories really. Worcester was predictably awful, but Redditch was only narrowly lost, Wyre Forest one of few 1997 Labour seats they held while Bromsgrove is also the kind of seat Labour would have won elsewhere. Meanwhile with the Lib Dems winning 72 seats you'd expect West Worcestershire to have been one of them on past form (more so than eg. Tewkesbury next door). Droitwich & Evesham was never going to be vulnerable to anyone, but still it was a very solid vote share and majority.. The emrgence of the Lib Dems as a force in Bromsgrove town is novel (commented on elsewhere by No Offence Alan I think)I It looks like a map of France. If so La Grande Briere, in Brittany, appears to have been ‘reclaimed by the sea’! |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,887
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Oct 29, 2024 18:19:38 GMT
'Next Time' the whole dynamic will have changed and the LDs are nearly certain to be under a massive squeeze from potentially four quarters. They may be back down to 6-seats? July was just collateral benefit from an anti-Conservative mass urge by the majority of the electorate. That has completely and utterly evaporated and 'Buyer Distress' has set in very early and with an urgency. I doubt the Tories will have recovered sufficiently for that. Even if Labour bomb. They will be seen to be the utterly useless total irrelevance we have always known them to be. They can 'prosper' briefly when one or both of the majors are passing through serious unpopularity and they then form the 'useful dustbin' for irritations, disdain and outright anger. The poor souls always think it is because there is a rampant desire for their policies and a love for their super candidates. They never learn! |
|
nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,028
|
Post by nyx on Oct 30, 2024 3:41:55 GMT
In hindsight it was perhaps a mistake to prioritize North Shropshire so much and just further increase an already extreme winning margin– South Shropshire, Hinckley, Kenilworth, West Worcestershire were all probably winnable. But I am not surprised the party was cautious given past experiences; one can hardly fault them for it. 'Next Time' the whole dynamic will have changed and the LDs are nearly certain to be under a massive squeeze from potentially four quarters. They may be back down to 6-seats? July was just collateral benefit from an anti-Conservative mass urge by the majority of the electorate. That has completely and utterly evaporated and 'Buyer Distress' has set in very early and with an urgency. 6 seats? Unseating most of a party's MPs is not something which is easy or especially common. The only way I could imagine the Conservatives regaining a lot of those seats is if they manage to clearly unite the right behind them. If on the other hand Reform continue their rise and possibly overtake the Conservatives... well, I would say it's more likely that Reform gains places like Sunderland before they gain places like Taunton. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 30, 2024 6:53:40 GMT
 | | Con | Grn | Lab | Ref | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Hereford | 26.9% | 9.8% | 32.4% | 19.6% | 10.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | | | South Herefordshire | 36.3% | 17.9% | 18.7% | 17.6% | 9.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | | | Leominster | 32.5% | 41.5% | 7.1% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% | | | Malvern Hills | 28.8% | 48.3% | 6.6% | 13.9% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Herefordshire | 32.0% | 26.0% | 17.5% | 17.1% | 7.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
Not the easiest area to model given the paucity of good local election data, so take with a decent quantity of salt |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 30, 2024 6:56:18 GMT
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
|
Post by Foggy on Oct 30, 2024 6:57:03 GMT
Well, the county-wide score of 7% for the Lib Dems isn't in dispute, which is pretty pathetic in the circumstances.
|
|
sanders
Green
Posts: 2,991
Member is Online
|
Post by sanders on Oct 30, 2024 7:01:00 GMT
| | Con | Grn | Lab | Ref | LD | Ind | Oth | | | | | | | | | | | | | Hereford | 26.9% | 9.8% | 32.4% | 19.6% | 10.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | | | South Herefordshire | 36.3% | 17.9% | 18.7% | 17.6% | 9.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | | | Leominster | 32.5% | 41.5% | 7.1% | 16.0% | 2.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% | | | Malvern Hills | 28.8% | 48.3% | 6.6% | 13.9% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | |
| | | | | | | | | | Herefordshire | 32.0% | 26.0% | 17.5% | 17.1% | 7.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
Not the easiest area to model given the paucity of good local election data, so take with a decent quantity of salt Striking map. Hereford was one of the three cities the Tories won along with Ripon and Salisbury. Leominster was one of best Green areas back in 1992, so this is a long-time in coming. Funnily enough, the first ever Green MP, Caroline Lucas went to Malvern College, along with Jeremy Paxman, so it's poetic that Lucas's old school is now in a Green seat. The Hereford constituency was a near miss for Labour in 1966 too. |
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
|
Post by Foggy on Oct 30, 2024 7:13:31 GMT
Malvern College is located in Tory-held West Worcestershire CC.
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 30, 2024 7:15:40 GMT
Malvern College is in Malvern which is in West Worcestershire. The 'Malvern Hills' in my table refers to the part of that district which was historically in Herefordshire and reverted in 1995 when the Herefordshire UA was created. The bulk of the Malvern Hills district remains of course in Worcestershire and on aggregate the district (on the old boundaries as well as the new) would have voted Conservative.
The current Malvern Hills district also includes parts of the former Leominster district (that part which was historically in Worcestershire) but that would not be enough to put the whole of the old Leominster district in the Conservative column
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 30, 2024 7:24:07 GMT
Malvern College is located in Tory-held West Worcestershire CC. . Also Herefordshire is a very small county I realise. In terms of population, how many are smaller? Rutland? City of London (obviously). They aren't. I've explained this. Maybe read more and comment less. |
|
sanders
Green
Posts: 2,991
Member is Online
|
Post by sanders on Oct 30, 2024 7:25:49 GMT
Malvern and Malvern Hills being in separate council areas is confusing. Also Herefordshire is a very small county I realise. In terms of population, how many are smaller? Rutland? City of London (obviously). They aren't. I've explained this. Maybe read more and comment less. But that would be incompatible with being an attention seeker? I see your point, but it's still somewhat confusing, but I am not the most intelligent person on the site by a long chalk. I've deleted my comment, but what about this question: Herefordshire is a very small county I realise. In terms of population, how many are smaller? Rutland? City of London (obviously). . |
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
|
Post by YL on Oct 30, 2024 7:52:06 GMT
Herefordshire is a very small county I realise. In terms of population, how many are smaller? Rutland? City of London (obviously). . That depends what you mean by "county". If you mean the English ceremonial counties, then yes Herefordshire is the third smallest by population after the City and Rutland. ( This is easy enough to check.) If you mean administrative counties, then most unitary authorities are officially counties and quite a few of them have lower populations than Herefordshire. (And if you mean historic counties, then Westmorland would also be smaller. Huntingdonshire would also have been historically but is now bigger, because of the growth of its part of Peterborough.) |
|
|
|
Post by batman on Oct 30, 2024 8:26:44 GMT
Surprising number of red blobs in that map, more than I'd have expected.
I very much doubt that sanders is the most intelligent person on this site, although he may possibly be the most arrogant.
|
|
YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
|
Post by YL on Oct 30, 2024 8:38:59 GMT
Surprising number of red blobs in that map, more than I'd have expected. Labour were not far short of winning Hereford & South Herefordshire, and they surely won't have had much strength in the rural parts, so it makes sense for them to have been ahead in Hereford city by enough that they might well have carried most of its wards, though as Pete says there is a paucity of local election data. |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Oct 30, 2024 9:12:10 GMT
Surprising number of red blobs in that map, more than I'd have expected. I very much doubt that sanders is the most intelligent person on this site, although he may possibly be the most arrogant. The best thing about this site is that the outsized number of abnormally high IQs. |
|
