The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2024 9:49:53 GMT
West Dunbartonshire is a Lab hold with 1,425 elected on the 4th stage No further details except the Soveriety, Communism, and LD all got knocked out That seems a really good result for Labour and another poor one for the SNP, given that their top candidate was so far in front of Labour's top candidate in 2022 Full figures, anyone? |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 14, 2024 10:14:12 GMT
Count 1
Lab 1398
SNP 1095
Con 125
Muir 87
LD 52
Comm 47
Sov 12
Count 4 (decisive)
Lab 1425
SNP 1127
Con 130
Muir 98
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Jun 14, 2024 10:23:11 GMT
Highland, Tain & Easter Ross Quota: 1242 Dundas elected after seventh stage
Ind (Dundas) 895
SNP 630
LD 621 Con 134 Green 89 Ind (Shearer) 89
Libertarian 25
Hmmm |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 14, 2024 10:27:48 GMT
Actually a slightly better performance by the Nats than at last year's byelection in this division?
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Post by carolus on Jun 14, 2024 10:28:53 GMT
Highland, Tain & Easter Ross Quota: 1242 Dundas elected after seventh stage
Ind (Dundas) 895
SNP 630
LD 621 Con 134 Green 89 Ind (Shearer) 89
Libertarian 25
Stage 2: Ind (Dundas) 898 (+3)
SNP 636 (+6) LD 625 (+4) Con 135 (+4) Green 94 (+5) Ind (Shearer) 91 (+2)
Stage 3: Ind (Dundas) 938 (+40) SNP 643 (+7) LD 637 (+12) Con 143 (+8) Green 95 (+1)
Stage 4: Ind (Dundas) 946 (+8) SNP 682 (+39) LD 668 (+31) Con 145 (+2)
Stage 5: Ind (Dundas) 997 (+51) LD 708 (+40) SNP 689 (+7)
Stage 6: Ind (Dundas) 1179 (+182) LD 890 (+182)
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 14, 2024 10:35:46 GMT
Clydebank Central Total votes: 2845 Lab🌹1391 - 48.9% (+ 9.2) SNP🎗️1095 - 38.4% (- 14.0) Con🌳125 - 4.4% (- 3.5) Independent/SFP (muir) 87 - 3.1% (new) Communist☭ 52 - 1.8% (new) LD🔶52 - 1.8% (new) Sovereignty 12 - 0.4% Labour elected stage 4 This result is more consistent with polling which has put Labour 10% ahead of the SNP. For context this ward voted around 61% Yes in 2014 and had one of the strongest yes results in Scotland. Labour really knocked it out the park here. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Jun 14, 2024 10:42:12 GMT
Do these results mean that the last SNP candidate to be elected to anything, was still elected under Nicola Sturgeon?
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Post by yellowfox on Jun 14, 2024 11:10:03 GMT
Do these results mean that the last SNP candidate to be elected to anything, was still elected under Nicola Sturgeon? That is the case yes. Part of the reason that I struggle to see them holding onto more than a single digit number of seats. Basically a 2015 Lib Dem style result were you can’t really predict which ones survive. In the interest of balance, that’s a 11.6% first preference SNP>Lab swing. If that two-party result was replicated (and it won’t be) the SNP would statistically hold onto 4 of the greater Glasgow SNP-Lab straight fights (both Paisley seats, Cumbernauld and East Kilbride). You could also make an argument that differential turnout in local by-elections harms the SNP relative to other parties as they have lower propensity voters, meaning that they could do slightly better than that. This does seem to fly in the face of all the evidence of actual votes we’ve seen in the last 18 months though, so I’m somewhat sceptical. |
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kevinf
Labour
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Post by kevinf on Jun 14, 2024 11:49:27 GMT
Clydebank Central Total votes: 2845 Lab🌹1391 - 48.9% (+ 9.2) SNP🎗️1095 - 38.4% (- 14.0) Con🌳125 - 4.4% (- 3.5) Independent/SFP (muir) 87 - 3.1% (new) Communist☭ 52 - 1.8% (new) LD🔶52 - 1.8% (new) Sovereignty 12 - 0.4% Labour elected stage 4 This result is more consistent with polling which has put Labour 10% ahead of the SNP. For context this ward voted around 61% Yes in 2014 and had one of the strongest yes results in Scotland. Labour really knocked it out the park here. “Communists on course to tie with Lib Dems” |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,425
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Post by iain on Jun 14, 2024 12:15:27 GMT
Tain & Easter Ross results with Independent preferences redistributed:
| 2022 election | 2023 by-election | 2024 by-election | | SNP | 42.8% | 24.6% | 30.8% | | Lib Dem | 35.3% | 34.4% | 35.7% | | Conservative | 16.2% | 14.4% | 9.4% | | Labour |
| 5.7% | | | Green |
| 3.7% | 5.0% | | Libertarian |
| 1.5% | 2.1% | | Non-transferrable | 5.2% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 14, 2024 12:20:11 GMT
GWBWI
Lab +49
Con +18
LDm -13
SNP -42
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jun 14, 2024 12:31:02 GMT
An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.
There have been 11 ordinary by elections since 2nd May 2024.
The Conservatives have defended 6- Held 5 and lost 1 to Labour ( retention rate 83%) and have gained 1
Labour have defended 3- held 3- (retention rate 100%) and have gained 1
There have been 2 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 1 was won by another Independent and 1 was gained by the Conservatives.
Overall totals and net changes
Con 6 (=)
Lab 4 (+1)
Ind 1 (-1)
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Jun 14, 2024 12:58:07 GMT
can I just say, even if I don’t every time, that I appreciate both jamesdoyle and andrewp ‘s contributions |
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Post by certain on Jun 14, 2024 13:21:29 GMT
Count 1 Lab 1398 SNP 1095 Con 125 Muir 87 LD 52 Comm 47 Sov 12 Count 4 (decisive) Lab 1425 SNP 1127 Con 130 Muir 98 Do we have the other stage results? |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 14, 2024 15:55:08 GMT
Count 1 Lab 1398 SNP 1095 Con 125 Muir 87 LD 52 Comm 47 Sov 12 Count 4 (decisive) Lab 1425 SNP 1127 Con 130 Muir 98 Do we have the other stage results? Yes, they're all on www.west-dunbarton.gov.uk/council/newsroom/news/2024/june/by-election/Count 2 (elimination of Sovereignty) saw the SNP and the Lib Dems gain 4 votes each, Labour 2 and the Tories 1, with one vote exhausted. Count 3 (elimination of the Communist) saw the SNP gain 19 votes, Labour and Muir 4 each and the Lib Dems 3, with 17 further votes exhausted. Count 4 (elimination of the Lib Dem) saw Labour gain 21, the SNP 9, Muir 7 and the Tories 4, with 18 further votes exhausted. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2024 16:22:47 GMT
Count 1 Lab 1398 SNP 1095 Con 125 Muir 87 LD 52 Comm 47 Sov 12 Count 4 (decisive) Lab 1425 SNP 1127 Con 130 Muir 98 Do we have the other stage results? If the count were-p done properly according to the proper rules of AV properly, then it would have gone straight from the first round to the last round (Lab vs. SNP) in one swell foop, without doing all the little dribblings in separate stages. |
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Post by jimboo2017 on Jun 14, 2024 16:41:39 GMT
Auntie and Nephew it seems |
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Post by certain on Jun 14, 2024 19:01:59 GMT
Do we have the other stage results? If the count were-p done properly according to the proper rules of AV properly, then it would have gone straight from the first round to the last round (Lab vs. SNP) in one swell foop, without doing all the little dribblings in separate stages. That's true. But even under the Scottish rules the count was complete at Stage 3, when the winner had an overall majority of 10 (1404 to 1394). See Rule 55. But the computerised counting system is crap. |
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Post by nobodyimportant on Jun 20, 2024 9:42:52 GMT
Tain & Easter Ross results with Independent preferences redistributed:
| 2022 election | 2023 by-election | 2024 by-election | | SNP | 42.8% | 24.6% | 30.8% | | Lib Dem | 35.3% | 34.4% | 35.7% | | Conservative | 16.2% | 14.4% | 9.4% | | Labour |
| 5.7% | | | Green |
| 3.7% | 5.0% | | Libertarian |
| 1.5% | 2.1% | | Non-transferrable | 15.4% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
That third row adds up to 110? |
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 20, 2024 10:32:58 GMT
Tain & Easter Ross results with Independent preferences redistributed:
| 2022 election | 2023 by-election | 2024 by-election | | SNP | 42.8% | 24.6% | 30.8% | | Lib Dem | 35.3% | 34.4% | 35.7% | | Conservative | 16.2% | 14.4% | 9.4% | | Labour |
| 5.7% |
| | Green |
| 3.7% | 5.0% | | Libertarian |
| 1.5% | 2.1% | | Non-transferrable | 15.4% | 15.7% | 17.0% |
That third row adds up to 110? I make it that the third row adds up to 40 and the third column (which is what I think you meant to type) adds up to 100. |
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