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Post by gwynthegriff on May 8, 2024 21:22:56 GMT
However what I was wondering, and failed to make clear, was whether any PCC has made a sufficient mark in that office to overcome a universal national swing against his party or to significantly outperform a UNS in favour of his party I very much doubt it.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,536
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Post by johng on May 8, 2024 21:47:21 GMT
it's a bit surprising on the face of it that the Tories should be ahead of Labour in Denbighshire, Anglesey & Conwy, but behind them in Gwynedd. But then, Gwynedd is not very good for the Tories even though it's not exactly great for Labour either
Very low turnout is the answer I believe.
I don't think the results are particularly discouraging for us, but there's a lot of work to do with a lot of blue to turn red.
Plaid's narrow margin in Ynys Mon is actually very good for us. In Ceredigion, which has a similar size electorate, they were ahead 7,146 to 1,971 over the second placed party. I think they'd like to see more clear water than this result shows - especially as Plaid voters are usually considered high propensity ones in comparison to the Labour vote.
Gwynedd has been better for Labour than the Tories for a while. Results in Arfon have always been marginal with Hywel Williams clinging on by no more than a couple of thousand (92 in 2017!).
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Post by lancastrian on May 8, 2024 22:30:22 GMT
LancashirePreston Rossendale Wyre The missing Lancashire results: Here are the full figures: 20240503_165920 by James GrovesLabour ahead in: Blackburn with Darwen, Blackpool, Burnley, Chorley, Hyndburn, Lancaster, Preston, Rossendale, South Ribble, West Lancashire, Wyre Conservatives ahead in: Fylde, Pendle, Ribble Valley J
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Inactivist
Posts: 5,551
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Post by Foggy on May 9, 2024 1:16:00 GMT
it's a bit surprising on the face of it that the Tories should be ahead of Labour in Denbighshire, Anglesey & Conwy, but behind them in Gwynedd. But then, Gwynedd is not very good for the Tories even though it's not exactly great for Labour either Yeah, all the terraced houses, old slate mines and quarries up here constantly cause me to think "hmm, weird that Labour frequently outpoll the Tories round these parts". If anything, it's the evidence in the local architecture that every denomination used to have its own place of worship – there used to be a strong correlation between Liberal support and nonconformist beliefs – which makes the utter collapse of the centre so shocking. In 2019 there wasn't even a Lib Dem candidate in Arfon! Remainers were expected to vote for a separatist, in a supreme bit of irony.
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Post by jm on May 10, 2024 8:49:24 GMT
I have now collated results for every council area except those listed below. I may need to contact the respective ROs unless anyone here has been able to find them... Cheshire Cheshire East WarringtonCumbria (all) Cumberland Westmorland and FurnessDerbyshireBolsover DerbyHigh Peak North East Derbyshire South DerbyshireDyfed-Powys Ceredigion PowysEssexBrentwood Castle Point Rochford ThurrockHertfordshireDacorum East Hertfordshire KentMaidstone ThanetTonbridge and Malling Lancashire Preston Rossendale WyreLincolnshireEast LindseyNorth Wales (all)
South Wales (all)
StaffordshireSouth Staffordshire Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke-on-Trent WarwickshireNuneaton and BedworthRugbyThanks to those who have assisted with collating LA results, I am now just missing these areas. I have emailed the respective ROs... Bolsover Brentwood Castle Point Dacorum East Hertfordshire Maidstone Tonbridge and Malling South Staffordshire Staffordshire Moorlands Stoke-on-Trent
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Post by jm on May 12, 2024 17:19:26 GMT
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