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Post by carolus on Apr 8, 2024 13:54:13 GMT
With all the SOPNs in: There are 37 PCC elections this year, down from 39 in 2021 as North Yorkshire and South Yorkshire have had the roles merged into the mayor. Candidate totals: 37 (n/c) Con 37 (n/c) Lab 35 (-2) LD: missing Cleveland, West Midlands 8 (+1) Green - Avon & Somerset, Hertfordshire, Leicestershire, Merseyside, Norfolk, Suffolk, Sussex, West Mercia 6 (-13) Ind: Dorset, Gloucestershire, Northumbria, Surrey, Thames Valley, Wiltshire 4 (n/c) PC: Dyfed-Powys, Gwent, North Wales, South Wales 3 (+1) English Democrats: Essex, Lincolnshire, West Mercia
2 (-10) Reform UK: Derbyshire, Lincolnshire 1 (+1) One Leicester - Leicestershire 1 (+1) Justice & Anti-Corruption: Hampshire 1 (+1) More Police Officers for Thames Valley: Thames Valley 1 (+1) Workers Party: Bedfordshire The disappearance of the Independents continues, from 52 (11 elected) in 2012 to 25 (3) in 2016, 19 (0) in 2021 to just six this time. I suppose a sign that parties have been getting steadily more organised in campaigning for them. Reform's big drop also noteworthy. |
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Post by listener on Apr 11, 2024 11:54:50 GMT
Here is an interim report on the reconstruction of the 2021 results.
I now have complete results for 25 PCCs and can complete another 4 by arithmetic (with only 1 district missing).
That leaves 10 incomplete. Whilst most elections officers have responded, some could not locate their district results or provided the overall result for the entire police area. I am now writing out to the 2021 PAROs, to see if they can provide a spreadsheet grid from 2021.
The incomplete PCCs are currently Devon and Cornwall, Essex, Leicestershire, Lincolnshire, Merseyside, Staffordshire, Surrey, Gwent, North Wales and South Wales.
I will post my findings shortly on the individual threads.
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Post by listener on Apr 22, 2024 12:04:43 GMT
Second interim report.
I have received a very positive response from election officers and PAROs and now have complete results for 36 PCCs in 2021, including 5 PCCs completed by arithmetic (with 1 district missing).
This leaves 3 incomplete - Devon and Cornwall (3 districts missing), Essex (4 districts missing) and North Wales (no data at all).
I will start posting my findings on the individual threads this afternoon.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,541 
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Post by Foggy on Apr 22, 2024 22:05:23 GMT
Will this set of PCCs be the first to serve the envisaged statutory four-year term, I wonder? The first lot did 3 and a half years, the next batch 5 and the most recent mandate ended up only lasting 3. Could the posts be abolished/replaced before 2028, resulting in none of them ever actually spending exactly 4 years in office?
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Post by listener on Apr 22, 2024 23:01:15 GMT
I have posted up to Northumbria.
The rest (including Wales and incomplete results) will follow tomorrow.
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Post by arnieg on Apr 23, 2024 7:08:34 GMT
With all the SOPNs in: There are 37 PCC elections this year, down from 39 in 2021 as North Yorkshire and South Yorkshire have had the roles merged into the mayor. Candidate totals: 37 (n/c) Con 37 (n/c) Lab 35 (-2) LD: missing Cleveland, West Midlands 8 (+1) Green - Avon & Somerset, Hertfordshire, Leicestershire, Merseyside, Norfolk, Suffolk, Sussex, West Mercia 6 (-13) Ind: Dorset, Gloucestershire, Northumbria, Surrey, Thames Valley, Wiltshire 4 (n/c) PC: Dyfed-Powys, Gwent, North Wales, South Wales 3 (+1) English Democrats: Essex, Lincolnshire, West Mercia
2 (-10) Reform UK: Derbyshire, Lincolnshire 1 (+1) One Leicester - Leicestershire 1 (+1) Justice & Anti-Corruption: Hampshire 1 (+1) More Police Officers for Thames Valley: Thames Valley 1 (+1) Workers Party: Bedfordshire The disappearance of the Independents continues, from 52 (11 elected) in 2012 to 25 (3) in 2016, 19 (0) in 2021 to just six this time. I suppose a sign that parties have been getting steadily more organised in campaigning for them. Reform's big drop also noteworthy. Just who is campaigning for: Two (or more) Leicesters Injustice and pro-corruption Less police for the Thames Valley |
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Post by carolus on Apr 23, 2024 10:24:01 GMT
I have posted up to Northumbria. The rest (including Wales and incomplete results) will follow tomorrow. Sterling work on this - should be a very interesting comparison for the results next week.
Pretty poor from many of the councils that so much effort has to go in to finding results that were reported less than three years ago, though.
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Post by listener on Apr 23, 2024 14:42:44 GMT
South Yorkshire 2021 result posted here for the record - as the individual thread is locked
SOUTH YORKSHIRE RESULT 2021
2021 PARO – Barnsley
Overall result (First Stage) (total valid ballots 306,755)
Labour ahead in all districts
Lab 165,442 – 53.9%
Con 98,851 – 32.2%
Lib Dem 42,462 – 13.8%
Barnsley (total valid ballots 51,340)
Lab 27,890 – 54.3%
Con 17,934 – 34.9%
Lib Dem 5,516 – 10.7%
Doncaster (total valid ballots 62,112)
Lab 32,761 – 52.7%
Con 25,104 – 40.4%
Lib Dem 4,247 – 6.8%
Rotherham (total valid ballots 57,002)
Lab 28,185 – 49.4%
Con 22,867 – 40.1%
Lib Dem 5,950 – 10.4%
Sheffield (total valid ballots 136,301)
Lab 76,606 – 56.2%
Con 32,946 – 24.2%
Lib Dem 26,749 – 19.6%
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Post by listener on Apr 24, 2024 21:18:22 GMT
I have now posted complete results from 2021 for 36 Police Areas, partial results for 2 and no information for the final 1.
I hope that the detailed results, compared with the 2024 results, will provide an interesting analysis in the run-up to the General Election. I would encourage everyone out there to collect the local results from next week's count and publish them here.
The 2021 PAROs in Exeter, Colchester and Flintshire have not replied to me. I would welcome support from others, to chase up the results grids from 2021.
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Post by listener on Apr 27, 2024 13:19:49 GMT
Both Exeter and Flintshire have turned up trumps, providing the full analysis for Devon and Cornwall and North Wales.
That leaves only 4 districts in Essex outstanding.
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Post by carolus on Apr 29, 2024 9:02:27 GMT
Both Exeter and Flintshire have turned up trumps, providing the full analysis for Devon and Cornwall and North Wales. That leaves only 4 districts in Essex outstanding. Colchester have just sent me the spreadsheet - I'll upload it in a moment. |
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Post by carolus on Apr 29, 2024 9:16:22 GMT
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Post by listener on Apr 29, 2024 12:24:12 GMT
Thanks, Carolus, for the Essex results.
When I set out a couple of weeks ago, we had less than 50% of the local results. Thanks to the combined effort of the Forum, we now have a complete set of local results from 2021.
Amazing success for the Forum - and a permanent resource for psephologists.
Now we need to assemble the complete local results for 2024.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 29, 2024 13:01:24 GMT
Do we have complete sets from 2011 and 2016?
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,541
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Post by Foggy on Apr 29, 2024 15:27:04 GMT
Do we have complete sets from 2011 and 2016? Considering the first PCC elections took place in November 2012, getting results from 2011 would be an achievement even beyond the power of these boards! |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,611
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Post by john07 on Apr 29, 2024 16:56:59 GMT
Do we have complete sets from 2011 and 2016? Considering the first PCC elections took place in November 2012, getting results from 2011 would be an achievement even beyond the power of these boards! Notional results that would have happened had there been elections in 2011? |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 29, 2024 18:36:33 GMT
I believe the use of FPTP instead of SV will depress turnout for these elections even further.
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Post by carolus on Apr 29, 2024 18:39:47 GMT
I would be surprised if it had any impact at all.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,225
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 2, 2024 6:51:02 GMT
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on May 5, 2024 11:19:29 GMT
As has been commented elsewhere the change in the voting system has really saved the Conservatives in these contests.
They have held 17 so far, with probably 2 more wins to come, and of those 17 wins, the winning margin is less than 5% in 9 of them, and only more than 10% in 3.
It’s a bit like the 1994 Euro elections.
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