Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 26, 2024 11:16:36 GMT
Percentage wise I make Arbroath Con 41.9 (+10.5) SNP 29.3 (-6.9) Lab 16.1 (+9.6) LD 8.3 (+3.9) Green 4.4 (+1.1) No ind or Alba from before I think, once the indy votes from last time were relocated to 2nd preferences, it would be a slightly less impressive increase for the Tories, but an even worse fall for the SNP - still a good Lab showing. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 26, 2024 11:18:32 GMT
Arbroath percentages apparently Con 41.9 (+10.5) SNP 29.3 (-6.9) Lab 16.1 (+9.6) LD 8.3 (+3.9) Grn 4.3 (New) No ind as prev The 4 seater on those numbers would be: Con 2 SNP 1 Lab 1 Con gain 1 from Ind Lab gain 1 from SNP Assuming the indy re-stood, you'd probably be looking at 1 Con and 1SNP then 2 from 3 out of Ind, Lab and Con (ie SNP definitely losing 1) |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Apr 26, 2024 11:19:39 GMT
I wish they would give us the full results, not just the first preferences and the ultimate winner.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 26, 2024 11:20:44 GMT
And didn't realise this ward had only become safe for Labour that recently, in said context a very creditable result for them. Very recent. It was Lib Dem for a long time until the coalition government when Labour gained the ward. Then PC became the main challenger. Though that was when in Cardiff it was the Neil McEvoy party.
All three seats were won by the Lib Dems from Labour in 2004 and held in 2008 (eight years in total) - not sure if that counts as a long time. Plaid were a very credible and close 3rd 2008. Post 2010 the Lib Dem vote collapsed and Plaid maintained their presence, they won a by-election in the ward in 2016 only to loose it in 2017. Their vote is a mix of Welsh Speakers and Muslims. The ward went from three to four seats in 2022. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 26, 2024 11:20:52 GMT
Surprisingly decent Labour result, in a ward that doesn't appear to have any recent history of Labour strength.
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dizz
Labour
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Post by dizz on Apr 26, 2024 11:33:18 GMT
The 4 seater on those numbers would be: Con 2 SNP 1 Lab 1 Con gain 1 from Ind Lab gain 1 from SNP Assuming the indy re-stood, you'd probably be looking at 1 Con and 1SNP then 2 from 3 out of Ind, Lab and Con (ie SNP definitely losing 1) Since the Indy resigned a comeback might be unlikely? |
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Post by certain on Apr 26, 2024 11:38:09 GMT
I wish they would give us the full results, not just the first preferences and the ultimate winner. This may be because the crap counting software only includes this info in the declaration. Anything else has to be dug out of the detailed tables. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 26, 2024 11:38:13 GMT
Assuming the indy re-stood, you'd probably be looking at 1 Con and 1SNP then 2 from 3 out of Ind, Lab and Con (ie SNP definitely losing 1) Since the Indy resigned a comeback might be unlikely? Sorry - brainfart moment there... forgot it was the indy seat up... |
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Sibboleth
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'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 26, 2024 11:55:39 GMT
And didn't realise this ward had only become safe for Labour that recently, in said context a very creditable result for them. Until the 1980s Grangetown tended to vote Labour in General Elections but was a marginal ward that often narrowly returned Conservatives in local elections, the latter being a legacy of the machine politics and, ultimately, political issues (temperance!) of another age. |
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Post by gramps191919 on Apr 26, 2024 13:04:30 GMT
Jack Cruickshanks (Scottish Conservatives) – 1682 votes (42%)
Kathleen Wolf (SNP) – 1175 votes (29%)
Mark Hilton (Scottish Labour) – 644 votes (16%)
Sandra O’Shea (Scottish LibDems) - 333 (8%)
Mark Findlay (Scottish Green Party) – 176 votes (4%)
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 26, 2024 13:24:12 GMT
And the final statistics for this local electoral year, following the two contests on 25/ 04/24
Excluding countermanded elections, there were 173 ordinary by elections for 175 seats between May 4th 2023 and April 25th 2024.
The Conservatives have defended 47- Held 19 and lost 28: 5 to the Greens, 16 to the Lib Dems, 6 to Labour and 1 to an Independent. ( retention rate 40%) and have gained 12
Labour have defended 53- Held 38 and lost 15- 5 to the Conservatives, 5 to Independents, 3 to the Lib Dems and 2 to the Greens( retention rate 72%) and have gained 12
Lib Dems have defended 34- Held 30 and lost 4, 1 each to the Conservatives and Greens and 2 to Independents ( retention rate 88%) and have gained 23
Greens have defended 10- Held 6 and lost 4: 1 each to the Conservatives, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and to an Independent( retention rate 60%) and have gained 10
There have been elections for 16 seats previously won by Independents: 8 have been won by an another Independent , 3 have been lost to the Conservatives, 2 to the Greens and and 1 each to Labour, the Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru.And Independents have gained 10
Residents/ local groups have defended 7, held 5 and lost 2 to the Lib Dems.
SNP have defended 5, lost 5, 2 to the Conservatives and 3 to Labour ( retention rate 0%)
PC have defended 3, held 1 , lost 2, 1 to Labour and 1 to an Independent (retention rate 33%) and have gained 1
Overall totals and net changes
Con 31 (-16)
Lab 50 (-3)
LD 53 (+19)
Green 16 (+6)
Ind 18 (+ 2)
SNP 0 (-5)
PC 2( -1)
Res/ local groups 5 (-2)
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Post by batman on Apr 26, 2024 14:10:10 GMT
Don't the by-elections next Thursday count as part of this electoral year?
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dizz
Labour
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Post by dizz on Apr 26, 2024 14:33:44 GMT
Percentage wise I make Arbroath Con 41.9 (+10.5) SNP 29.3 (-6.9) Lab 16.1 (+9.6) LD 8.3 (+3.9) Green 4.4 (+1.1) No ind or Alba from before Will be interesting as a ‘neutral observer’ on the GE night watching to see if Humza can lock the Cons out of every seat in Scotland…. |
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Post by certain on Apr 26, 2024 15:35:48 GMT
I wish they would give us the full results, not just the first preferences and the ultimate winner. This may be because the crap counting software only includes this info in the declaration. Anything else has to be dug out of the detailed tables. AFAIK Angus Council has yet to make a full declaration of the results. This must be some sort of record. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Apr 26, 2024 17:06:31 GMT
This may be because the crap counting software only includes this info in the declaration. Anything else has to be dug out of the detailed tables. AFAIK Angus Council has yet to make a full declaration of the results. This must be some sort of record. At the moment all I can see in the "Results" section of their website is this page, which informs us that the winning candidate was elected on stage 5 (which of course cannot have been necessary, but we know that), and links to this page, which links to the "Declaration of results report", which merely gives the first preferences, information about rejected ballots, and who won and on what count. So not the full result. It doesn't matter quite so much here, where the eventual winner had a clear lead on first preferences which based on what we know about transfer patterns in recent Scottish by-elections was never likely to be closed, but if the election is actually close or if the first preference leader isn't the eventual winner it's pathetically inadequate. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Apr 26, 2024 18:46:32 GMT
As usual, Ballot Box Scotland has the numbers:  Stage 4 was Con 1997, SNP 1467. Green transfers: SNP 62, Lib Dem 42, Lab 32, Con 9, non transferable 31. I think that is a bit worse for the SNP than usual  |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 26, 2024 20:54:19 GMT
GWBWI
Con +44
Lab +30
LDm +2
PC +0
Grn -10
SNP -29
A good finish to the year for the Cons, with two consecutive postive, and first place, weeks.
Over the whole year, a different picture:
LDm +3116
Lab +1751
Grn +650
PC +88
SNP -212
Con -2094
My aim has always been to use this accumulated data to do some analysis on what exactly a good, or bad, week is in numerical terms. In truth, finding the time is difficult at the moment, so don't hold your breath. But it is still in the plan!
Roll on May 2nd (for which I may well not be able to vote, as in order to get my driving licence back I've just had to send my passport off, despite official guidance being that it's not necessary. DVLA, eh?)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 26, 2024 21:46:19 GMT
And didn't realise this ward had only become safe for Labour that recently, in said context a very creditable result for them. Until the 1980s Grangetown tended to vote Labour in General Elections but was a marginal ward that often narrowly returned Conservatives in local elections, the latter being a legacy of the machine politics and, ultimately, political issues (temperance!) of another age. Grangetown was once very hostile to the Liberals, not least because of temperance, and was home to the "Hotel de Marl", one of the funniest examples of malicious compliance imaginable. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 27, 2024 10:20:00 GMT
Don't the by-elections next Thursday count as part of this electoral year? I think they are treated as "sui generis" for the purposes of this calculation (as was the case with last year's) |
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 27, 2024 14:23:28 GMT
As usual, Ballot Box Scotland has the numbers: Stage 4 was Con 1997, SNP 1467. Green transfers: SNP 62, Lib Dem 42, Lab 32, Con 9, non transferable 31. I think that is a bit worse for the SNP than usual So it started with a Conservative majority of 513 and finished as 530. Most of the Scottish by-elections are similar in this respect and on the few occasions where there is ultimately a different result this can be put down to the "random" choice of those who bother to select the nth choice out of n candidates. And to have adopted this once fashionable electoral idea we have large wards / divisions where local representation is watered down. This is only one example of why "Politics" is broken in a very, very big way. So I will again sign off. |
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