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Post by markgoodair on May 31, 2024 16:44:33 GMT
Dr David Boucher is the TUV candidate.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jun 7, 2024 22:11:43 GMT
Dan Boucher (TUV)
Áine Groogan (Green)
Claire Hanna (SDLP)
Michael Henderson (UUP)
Tracy Kelly (DUP)
Kate Nicholl (Alliance)
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Post by irish observer on Jun 18, 2024 13:41:37 GMT
Hanna will benefit by the tactical SF voting pact. Nicholl won't beat her.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 28, 2024 22:21:39 GMT
Hanna will benefit by the tactical SF voting pact. Nicholl won't beat her. It's ironic that Emma Little-Pengelly's victory in 2017 has transformed this seat into a SDLP stronghold for at least a decade. Had she lost in 2017 I would expect this one to be leaning towards Alliance. It certainly 'feels' like the sort of seat they would do well in as an affluent constituency with many mixed neighbourhoods. |
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Post by irish observer on Jun 28, 2024 23:45:53 GMT
Hanna will benefit by the tactical SF voting pact. Nicholl won't beat her. It's ironic that Emma Little-Pengelly's victory in 2017 has transformed this seat into a SDLP stronghold for at least a decade. Had she lost in 2017 I would expect this one to be leaning towards Alliance. It certainly 'feels' like the sort of seat they would do well in as an affluent constituency with many mixed neighbourhoods. Alliance have always done well here. Anna Lo regained an Alliance presence here which she passed on. Monica McWilliams' victory in '98 for the NIWC shocked many at the time as Alliance lost out to her. In the end Unionism has declined here in what was once Martin Smyth's constituency. Remember Alasdair McDonnell himself came through a split Unionist vote to win here himself while now Hanna has won as the United anti-Brexit candidate in this essentially middle class but also QUB centred constituency. Still contains pockets of Loyalist support however and it was Peter Robinson who oversaw Pengelly's win here by carving out a coalition similar to his win's in East Belfast, arguably their greatest ever political strategist. |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Jul 1, 2024 18:43:21 GMT
It's ironic that Emma Little-Pengelly's victory in 2017 has transformed this seat into a SDLP stronghold for at least a decade. Had she lost in 2017 I would expect this one to be leaning towards Alliance. It certainly 'feels' like the sort of seat they would do well in as an affluent constituency with many mixed neighbourhoods. Alliance have always done well here. Anna Lo regained an Alliance presence here which she passed on. Monica McWilliams' victory in '98 for the NIWC shocked many at the time as Alliance lost out to her. In the end Unionism has declined here in what was once Martin Smyth's constituency. Remember Alasdair McDonnell himself came through a split Unionist vote to win here himself while now Hanna has won as the United anti-Brexit candidate in this essentially middle class but also QUB centred constituency. Still contains pockets of Loyalist support however and it was Peter Robinson who oversaw Pengelly's win here by carving out a coalition similar to his win's in East Belfast, arguably their greatest ever political strategist. Intervention from him here
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 5, 2024 0:02:20 GMT
"S. Belfast & mid-down tallies are running: SDLP - 46%, Alliance - 21%, DUP - 15%."
Lucidtalk.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 5, 2024 1:19:21 GMT
FINAL TALLIES PROJECTION - South Belfast & Mid-Down: SDLP - 47%, Alliance - 21%, DUP - 16%.
10k or so majority.
Lucidtalk.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 5, 2024 5:48:43 GMT
Ended up a bit higher than the tallies, 12.5k majority.
Considering the boundary changes and the Greens standing a candidate, great performance for Hanna.
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Post by irish observer on Jul 5, 2024 16:40:26 GMT
Ended up a bit higher than the tallies, 12.5k majority. Considering the boundary changes and the Greens standing a candidate, great performance for Hanna. Correct but obviously benefitting from the SF tactical decision to stand down in favour of an anti-Brexit MP in a non-Nationalist seat. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 16:43:06 GMT
Ended up a bit higher than the tallies, 12.5k majority. Considering the boundary changes and the Greens standing a candidate, great performance for Hanna. Correct but obviously benefitting from the SF tactical decision to stand down in favour of an anti-Brexit MP in a non-Nationalist seat. Bit pointless considering the DUP will be well out of contention here now even with more of a split vote again. I thought Sinn Fein were trying to pressure the SDLP to withdraw in a couple of their seats, but that obviously turned out unnecessary anyway |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 5, 2024 16:49:51 GMT
The point is SDLP contesting all seats at Westminster is pointless when anti-Brexit candidates such as Alliance are in poll position in several seats such as North Down and East Belfast.
Big picture, small picture. Or Father Ted analogy to Dougal of the cows in the caravan. Dougal didn't get the big picture ever!
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 16:56:38 GMT
The point is SDLP contesting all seats at Westminster is pointless when anti-Brexit candidates such as Alliance are in poll position in several seats such as North Down and East Belfast. Big picture, small picture. Or Father Ted analogy to Dougal of the cows in the caravan. Dougal didn't get the big picture ever! Brexit has happened though and it’s up to the UK government and EU how things go with the protocol so thinking on pro and anti-Brexit lines is surely a bit redundant. In 2019 it at least made sense since Brexit could still have been stopped and the parliamentary numbers might have been tight again Also it strikes me in Northern Ireland that parties standing for Westminster even in no-hope seats is part of trying to build up a vote for an Assembly seat |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 5, 2024 19:13:31 GMT
The point is SDLP contesting all seats at Westminster is pointless when anti-Brexit candidates such as Alliance are in poll position in several seats such as North Down and East Belfast. Big picture, small picture. Or Father Ted analogy to Dougal of the cows in the caravan. Dougal didn't get the big picture ever! Brexit has happened though and it’s up to the UK government and EU how things go with the protocol so thinking on pro and anti-Brexit lines is surely a bit redundant. In 2019 it at least made sense since Brexit could still have been stopped and the parliamentary numbers might have been tight again Also it strikes me in Northern Ireland that parties standing for Westminster even in no-hope seats is part of trying to build up a vote for an Assembly seat Remember that the Irish Government with the assistance of the SDLP and John Hume had the GFA ratified by the European Parliament as an international treaty in effect a European also hence the Peace Dividend and the funds that flowed which had a cross-border dimension. Since Brexit local councils on both sides of the Border have partnered to ensure that these funds have been retained. We have done this activity when some in Britain didn't even know what was going on here bar shooting on TV during the Troubles. Fact. Its easy for someone to say run one Unionist to cockblock the Nationalists. That doesn't help this place or slate the cross-community Alliance Party who had offices attacked since a Flegs protest. Since 2 of your MPs were murdered in a recent Parliament by nutcases some of you should really be more careful about what you say on threads to do with the 6 Ulster Counties or Ireland in general. We remember our history here while you abolished it as a compulsory subject at School. And I'm a former public representative who knows some in Irish politics who couldn't have constituency clinics due to harrassment on social media!! And still can't. Witness Holly Cairns for example, see Cara Hunter's case. Some of you don't realise that having SF as the largest party and 9/18 seats controlled by Nationalists and 1 by Alliance will now prompt calls for a Border Poll by SF. It will be demanded. They are now the largest party at Council, Assembly and at Westminster level and its in the GFA. I read it and voted for it. Have you? That's the referendum now. By the way we all receive referenda documents because we have a written constitution unlike in the UK, written by Dev and Civil Servants by the way. And many Irish citizens in these 6 counties now have no MEPs now thanks to Brexit hence they all look to Dublin for political help on the one island which is now more integrated than ever and Brexit has been a push-factor in this. Some of you debated Brexit ad infinitum for years on other threads and took various potshots as Irish Government Ministers but look at you now basically friendless in a Europe going to the right currently headed by Orban of Hungary for 6 months who hates Ukraine because he's Hungarian. Which naturally benefits Putin of course and your main natural ally in Europe since 1973 you have utterly pissed off completely like a stood up stud in a disco who is going elsewhere for a ride. And a US Administration teetering on its last legs while your Atlanticist Tory Government is obliterated and Labour may now try and tear itself apart over NATO/Europe/Gaza/Scotland/God know's what else. You'll continue to rue Brexit but so will we but we're cute hoors in the business game and have the sense to exploit our opportunities in business and in diplomacy and in All-Ireland politics and with our diaspora. You basically feel once the City is alright your fine. Yet London votes Labour doesn't it while the rest of the country voted for Brexit. Who has the greater buyers remorse? And what becomes the most common business language of the EU now? English or German? How do we respond, learn the lingo and get on with it and don't worry about what the French do which has obsessed you lot for 1200 years or more. That's call adapting. That's why we still have MEPs who'll work together for our collective interests and we'll make friends with all of them using our contacts whoever they are to make more friends and make friends first with the next US President who's bound to have some Irish connections somewhere. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 19:28:18 GMT
Brexit has happened though and it’s up to the UK government and EU how things go with the protocol so thinking on pro and anti-Brexit lines is surely a bit redundant. In 2019 it at least made sense since Brexit could still have been stopped and the parliamentary numbers might have been tight again Also it strikes me in Northern Ireland that parties standing for Westminster even in no-hope seats is part of trying to build up a vote for an Assembly seat Remember that the Irish Government with the assistance of the SDLP and John Hume had the GFA ratified by the European Parliament as an international treaty in effect a European also hence the Peace Dividend and the funds that flowed which had a cross-border dimension. Since Brexit local councils on both sides of the Border have partnered to ensure that these funds have been retained. We have done this activity when some in Britain didn't even know what was going on here bar shooting on TV during the Troubles. Fact. Its easy for someone to say run one Unionist to cockblock the Nationalists. That doesn't help this place or slate the cross-community Alliance Party who had offices attacked since a Flegs protest. Since 2 of your MPs were murdered in a recent Parliament by nutcases some of you should really be more careful about what you say on threads to do with the 6 Ulster Counties or Ireland in general. We remember our history here while you abolished it as a compulsory subject at School. And I'm a former public representative who knows some in Irish politics who couldn't have constituency clinics due to harrassment on social media!! And still can't. Witness Holly Cairns for example, see Cara Hunter's case. Some of you don't realise that having SF as the largest party and 9/18 seats controlled by Nationalists and 1 by Alliance will now prompt calls for a Border Poll by SF. It will be demanded. They are now the largest party at Council, Assembly and at Westminster level and its in the GFA. I read it and voted for it. Have you? That's the referendum now. By the way we all receive referenda documents because we have a written constitution unlike in the UK, written by Dev and Civil Servants by the way. And many Irish citizens in these 6 counties now have no MEPs now thanks to Brexit hence they all look to Dublin for political help on the one island which is now more integrated than ever and Brexit has been a push-factor in this. Some of you debated Brexit ad infinitum for years on other threads and took various potshots as Irish Government Ministers but look at you now basically friendless in a Europe going to the right currently headed by Orban of Hungary for 6 months who hates Ukraine because he's Hungarian. Which naturally benefits Putin of course and your main natural ally in Europe since 1973 you have utterly pissed off completely like a stood up stud in a disco who is going elsewhere for a ride. And a US Administration teetering on its last legs while your Atlanticist Tory Government is obliterated and Labour may now try and tear itself apart over NATO/Europe/Gaza/Scotland/God know's what else. You'll continue to rue Brexit but so will we but we're cute hoors in the business game and have the sense to exploit our opportunities in business and in diplomacy and in All-Ireland politics and with our diaspora. You basically feel once the City is alright your fine. Yet London votes Labour doesn't it while the rest of the country voted for Brexit. Who has the greater buyers remorse? And what becomes the most common business language of the EU now? English or German? How do we respond, learn the lingo and get on with it and don't worry about what the French do which has obsessed you lot for 1200 years or more. That's call adapting. That's why we still have MEPs who'll work together for our collective interests and we'll make friends with all of them using our contacts whoever they are to make more friends and make friends first with the next US President who's bound to have some Irish connections somewhere. Wow, so to be clear I’m just discussing things like the merits of parties standing from a psephological perspective, I’m not taking sides or trying to get deeper into Irish political history |
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Post by therealriga on Jul 5, 2024 19:58:38 GMT
And what becomes the most common business language of the EU now? English or German? I hate to go all Francis Urquhart but....English, because it's the most widely spoken, dominates popular culture and doesn't have the negative historical baggage attached to it that German does in significant parts of the continent. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 5, 2024 20:46:31 GMT
The point is SDLP contesting all seats at Westminster is pointless when anti-Brexit candidates such as Alliance are in poll position in several seats such as North Down and East Belfast. Big picture, small picture. Or Father Ted analogy to Dougal of the cows in the caravan. Dougal didn't get the big picture ever! Brexit has happened though and it’s up to the UK government and EU how things go with the protocol so thinking on pro and anti-Brexit lines is surely a bit redundant. In 2019 it at least made sense since Brexit could still have been stopped and the parliamentary numbers might have been tight again Also it strikes me in Northern Ireland that parties standing for Westminster even in no-hope seats is part of trying to build up a vote for an Assembly seat It's part of it, but Westminster elections are not the big event here. If you're a minor party, using it to build momentum and profile is important, but if you have a very reliable voting base like Sinn Fein you can skip one with less effect. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Jul 5, 2024 20:49:21 GMT
Brexit has happened though and it’s up to the UK government and EU how things go with the protocol so thinking on pro and anti-Brexit lines is surely a bit redundant. In 2019 it at least made sense since Brexit could still have been stopped and the parliamentary numbers might have been tight again Also it strikes me in Northern Ireland that parties standing for Westminster even in no-hope seats is part of trying to build up a vote for an Assembly seat It's part of it, but Westminster elections are not the big event here. If you're a minor party, using it to build momentum and profile is important, but if you have a very reliable voting base like Sinn Fein you can skip one with less effect. True for Sinn Fein but the SDLP have quite a bit of building back to do |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 6, 2024 15:14:12 GMT
Brexit has happened though and it’s up to the UK government and EU how things go with the protocol so thinking on pro and anti-Brexit lines is surely a bit redundant. In 2019 it at least made sense since Brexit could still have been stopped and the parliamentary numbers might have been tight again Also it strikes me in Northern Ireland that parties standing for Westminster even in no-hope seats is part of trying to build up a vote for an Assembly seat It's part of it, but Westminster elections are not the big event here. If you're a minor party, using it to build momentum and profile is important, but if you have a very reliable voting base like Sinn Fein you can skip one with less effect. As an all-island party they have simply re-positioned their voter base to move from a LE and Euro election to a Westminster election where they hold all seats with increased vote share and almost take out Campbell and make inroads in Foyle and Upper Bann. Narrative moves onto a success story. Thats their narrative. Plus they get paid still for going to Westminster even though they don't attend the place. Their voters know this. And are more concerned with a functioning Assembly which no UK Government will risk letting collapse lest they repeat the mistake of the British Government during Sunningdale. Lesson demand more, get more. |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 6, 2024 15:19:21 GMT
My earlier post was reflective of some frankly to call them "spoonerisms" would be polite and phrases matter here so does history in Irish politics North and South.
Look I'm doing analysis and to those of you who are doing seasoned and rational analysis with me you know who you are on this thread! I may occasionally do a broadside or two but that's only to scare off the exotics!
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