stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,365 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 2:21:20 GMT
Cardiff North
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 7, 2024 17:14:21 GMT
| Douglas Laurence Gwynn | Reform UK | Address in the Cardiff North constituency | | Irfan Latif | Welsh Liberal Democrats | Address Cardiff | | Anna McMorrin | Welsh Labour | Address in the Cardiff North constituency | | Malcom Philips | Plaid Cymru | Address in the Cardiff South and Penarth constituency | | Meg Shepherd-Foster | Wales Green Party | Address in Caerphilly | | Joel Williams | Welsh Conservatives | Address in the Cardiff North constituency |
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on Jun 14, 2024 0:00:48 GMT
Hard to believe nobody has posted on this thread other than the SOPN.
This was Tory held 1970-1997 and 2010-2017.
Though the chance of them gaining it is somewhere between zero and nil. A fairly significant swing is expected from what I have heard. Probably Labour above 60% of the vote when we were a touch above 50% in 2017 and a touch below in 2019.
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Post by greenhert on Jun 14, 2024 11:07:38 GMT
Hard to believe nobody has posted on this thread other than the SOPN. This was Tory held 1970-1997 and 2010-2017. Though the chance of them gaining it is somewhere between zero and nil. A fairly significant swing is expected from what I have heard. Probably Labour above 60% of the vote when we were a touch above 50% in 2017 and a touch below in 2019. Well above 60%. In fact this seat will see one of the heaviest crashes in the Conservative vote in Wales this year, especially with it being home primarily to affluent, well educated but largely mortgaged homeowners. In fact I predict they will finish 3rd behind the Liberal Democrats here. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 14, 2024 11:54:58 GMT
This seat has changed a lot demographically since 1997. See the Almanac for details. Lots of public sector jobs, lots of middle class housing, there's comfortable affluence almost everywhere. for the Conservatives to regain this we need to see David Cameron 2.0 leading a moderate one-nation party in c2035 after c10 years of Labour when the party is once again on the rocks with sleaze, scandel and domestic policy crises. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 17, 2024 9:21:07 GMT
Starvation's MRP (one poll and all the caveats of a MRP I know) has this as a projection: | Lab | 40.6% | | Con | 25.6% | | Green | 15.6% | | Plaid | 7.4% | | Reform | 6.9% | | Lib Dem | 3.9% |
I can not for the life of me see Labour going backwards here even with boundary changes which on current polling should make it a tad safer, but I also can not fathom how the Greens could end up on 15.6%, up from 1.6% in 2019 (and 4.8/7.5% in 2021). |
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batman
Labour
Posts: 12,358
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Jun 17, 2024 11:37:39 GMT
yes that's pretty ludicrous. The Lib Dems surely will not be last or lose their deposit nor will the Greens be as high as that.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 18, 2024 19:31:59 GMT
I’d love to think she’s desperate, but there’s every chance she’ll be in the actual Foreign Office next month.
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 18, 2024 20:14:17 GMT
Am I weird for thinking there's nothing particularly wrong with that tweet?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 18, 2024 20:17:56 GMT
Nothing wrong with it, just a strange thing to do
IMO, but each to their own etc.
I agree that most of the people at that gig tonight if they vote, will be voting Labour.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 18, 2024 20:18:46 GMT
Nothing wrong with it, just a strange thing to do IMO, but each to their own etc. I agree that most of the people at that gig tonight if they vote, will be voting Labour. "Swiftie Veterans for Justice"  |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,760
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Post by right on Jun 22, 2024 21:19:42 GMT
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,849
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Post by johng on Jun 22, 2024 21:27:27 GMT
All the Welsh Labour leaflets I've seen only have the Welsh flag.
You can see the same on that website:
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
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Post by andrea on Jun 22, 2024 21:44:28 GMT
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Post by Penddu on Jun 23, 2024 9:33:57 GMT
It has always been the case - UJ is rarely seen in Wales outside of some government buildings. Not our flag. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 23, 2024 9:45:15 GMT
It has always been the case - UJ is rarely seen in Wales outside of some government buildings. Not our flag. Is now the time to point out that the banner of Owen Glyndwr had four lions on it?  |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 23, 2024 10:07:47 GMT
It has always been the case - UJ is rarely seen in Wales outside of some government buildings. Not our flag. Slight exaggeration. |
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Post by Penddu on Jun 23, 2024 13:29:07 GMT
It has always been the case - UJ is rarely seen in Wales outside of some government buildings. Not our flag. Is now the time to point out that the banner of Owen Glyndwr had four lions on it? The point being?? |
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Post by Penddu on Jun 23, 2024 13:32:43 GMT
It has always been the case - UJ is rarely seen in Wales outside of some government buildings. Not our flag. Slight exaggeration. Not really - count the number of UJ flags that are Not on a government building, Conservative Club or military vets type organisation. Individuals and most private organisations fly the Red Dragon only. |
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on Jun 23, 2024 13:49:24 GMT
Not really - count the number of UJ flags that are Not on a government building, Conservative Club or military vets type organisation. Individuals and most private organisations fly the Red Dragon only. If an individual has a flagpole, he's probably a twat regardless of which flag he flies. |
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