Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 26, 2024 8:28:55 GMT
I was speaking to somebody who was at Uni with Bowie last week. Most of what he had to say about him was unrepeatable, suffice to say it wasn't very positive.
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 26, 2024 8:43:29 GMT
HE HAS A VERY LOUD VOICE FOR SUCH A SMALL MAN
I forgot to mention that Michael Turvey has produced the finest-ever Lib Dem Election bar chart
Since 1997
The Lib Dems have represented this seat for 18 years
The SNP has represented this seat for 2 years
The Conservatives have represented this seat for 7 years
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2024 8:45:55 GMT
I just can't see Balmoral having an SNP MP again.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426 
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Post by iain on Jun 26, 2024 8:50:39 GMT
There will be a significant recovery in the Lib Dem vote. Their candidate Michael Turvey a near neighbour of mine and is husband of Cllr Yi-Pei Chou Turvey, who is basically Eve from Killing Eve. Labour will advance from Corbyn deposit losing territory to their natural 10%. The only fields that are voting Tory are in the hands of less than five hereditary landowners. None of this helps Andrew Bowie. Glen Reynolds however does help Andrew Bowie. Really too close to call Why do you expect a significant Lib Dem recovery? Given the slight Scottish leader bounce we got last time I’m expecting our Scottish vote to fall slightly in the vast majority of seats north of the border. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 26, 2024 8:58:22 GMT
There will be a significant recovery in the Lib Dem vote. Their candidate Michael Turvey a near neighbour of mine and is husband of Cllr Yi-Pei Chou Turvey, who is basically Eve from Killing Eve. Labour will advance from Corbyn deposit losing territory to their natural 10%. The only fields that are voting Tory are in the hands of less than five hereditary landowners. None of this helps Andrew Bowie. Glen Reynolds however does help Andrew Bowie. Really too close to call Why do you expect a significant Lib Dem recovery? Given the slight Scottish leader bounce we got last time I’m expecting our Scottish vote to fall slightly in the vast majority of seats north of the border. I think it's likely that this will be the case in most seats and especially in the central belt where Labour will really squeeze the vote, but it's possible that in a few seats which used to have LD strength which has been squeezed by the Tories to keep the SNP out, that this might unwind and recover a bit this election? |
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 26, 2024 9:00:12 GMT
The underlying Lib Dem potential is considerable, but as we have seen it was soft. The desire of the equally soft Tory vote to find a palatable alternative is a huge opportunity. The SNP vote is also soft and looking for a palatable non-Tory option.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 26, 2024 9:05:14 GMT
There will be a significant recovery in the Lib Dem vote. Their candidate Michael Turvey a near neighbour of mine and is husband of Cllr Yi-Pei Chou Turvey, who is basically Eve from Killing Eve. Labour will advance from Corbyn deposit losing territory to their natural 10%. The only fields that are voting Tory are in the hands of less than five hereditary landowners. None of this helps Andrew Bowie. Glen Reynolds however does help Andrew Bowie. Really too close to call Why do you expect a significant Lib Dem recovery? Given the slight Scottish leader bounce we got last time I’m expecting our Scottish vote to fall slightly in the vast majority of seats north of the border. Both the Tory and SNP vote have fallen significantly. The local Lib Dems are working it - it is a long way from the official "target" seats. True, in the "freepost only" seats, I expect our vote to fall (if only because of other smaller parties standing more candidates this time). |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jun 26, 2024 9:38:03 GMT
I just can't see Balmoral having an SNP MP again. King Charles likes to wear the kilt. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 26, 2024 21:22:40 GMT
Calling this for the Conservatives.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 26, 2024 22:02:12 GMT
Calling this for the Conservatives. To expand on this: - The Conservatives performed strongly here in elections held in 2021 and 2022 relative to the rest of Aberdeenshire. - This is the only Aberdeenshire constituency where the Scottish Greens are standing (which will damage the SNP's vote share by 1-2%). - The SNP candidate has recently attracted negative publicity for pro-Putin tweets. I'm very happy to put my head above the parapet and go against what the MRP polls widely suggest here. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Jun 26, 2024 23:10:12 GMT
Calling this for the Conservatives. To expand on this: - The Conservatives performed strongly here in elections held in 2021 and 2022 relative to the rest of Aberdeenshire. - This is the only Aberdeenshire constituency where the Scottish Greens are standing (which will damage the SNP's vote share by 1-2%). - The SNP candidate has recently attracted negative publicity for pro-Putin tweets. I'm very happy to put my head above the parapet and go against what the MRP polls widely suggest here. Regarding the 2022 locals, where will that Independent vote go I wonder... I will take a trip out into this seat later this week to see how the poster/stakeboard count goes - prior to the 2019 election they were equal between SNP and CON. |
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 26, 2024 23:24:57 GMT
To expand on this: - The Conservatives performed strongly here in elections held in 2021 and 2022 relative to the rest of Aberdeenshire. - This is the only Aberdeenshire constituency where the Scottish Greens are standing (which will damage the SNP's vote share by 1-2%). - The SNP candidate has recently attracted negative publicity for pro-Putin tweets. I'm very happy to put my head above the parapet and go against what the MRP polls widely suggest here. Regarding the 2022 locals, where will that Independent vote go I wonder... I will take a trip out into this seat later this week to see how the poster/stakeboard count goes - prior to the 2019 election they were equal between SNP and CON. Kemnay, Blackburn, Newtonhill, Portlethen and a few coastal towns/villages in Means should go SNP. Stonehaven will be 50/50. Everything else should go Conservative by my reckoning. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Jun 27, 2024 22:03:59 GMT
Regarding the 2022 locals, where will that Independent vote go I wonder... I will take a trip out into this seat later this week to see how the poster/stakeboard count goes - prior to the 2019 election they were equal between SNP and CON. Kemnay, Blackburn, Newtonhill, Portlethen and a few coastal towns/villages in Means should go SNP. Stonehaven will be 50/50. Everything else should go Conservative by my reckoning. Agree although I'd say Stonehaven leans more Tory rather than 50/50. Banchory is very Tory and most of the towns and villages along the Dee feel that way too - Kincardine O'Neil, Ballater and Braemar for sure - Aboyne maybe not, perhaps just leaning Conservative. Similarly in the Donside too - I know the Tories did well in Alford in 2022 Locals. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 22:06:01 GMT
Calling this for the Conservatives. Yep. I don't see a seat that gave a majority of the vote to two Scottish aristocrats (Sir Robert Hill Smith and Alexander Amherst Burnett) in 2015 going SNP again. If they'd had SV here, the Tories would probably have run the SNP close in 2015. This is a fundamentally anti-SNP seat like Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk where the Lib Dem vote has largely coalesced around the Tory (like Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk) and had almost 2/3 vote against independence (like Berwickshire). |
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Post by irish observer on Jul 1, 2024 12:04:48 GMT
WANK is still an awful name for any constituency. Thin the Tories may hold here.
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Post by uthacalthing on Jul 1, 2024 22:46:35 GMT
It's raining today in WAnK (lower case n) so no grass cutting took place, nor will take place tomorrow.
It pains me to wish a dripping wet Tory Hold but Glen Reynolds really is unpleasant and I know unpleasant when I see it.
I hope he has been making himself known to as many floating voters as possible
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Post by aberdeensouth on Jul 2, 2024 7:47:52 GMT
Theresa May was here at the weekend. Andrew Bowie is very active on social media showing off all his canvassing efforts. Hopefully he holds it.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,140
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Post by cogload on Jul 2, 2024 8:08:15 GMT
Theresa May was here at the weekend. Andrew Bowie is very active on social media showing off all his canvassing efforts. Hopefully he holds it. She wouldn't make the journey if it wasn't tight. So a hint in itself. |
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Jul 2, 2024 8:55:37 GMT
Theresa May was here at the weekend. Andrew Bowie is very active on social media showing off all his canvassing efforts. Hopefully he holds it. She wouldn't make the journey if it wasn't tight. So a hint in itself. As we saw in the Perth and Kinross-shire thread she was also canvassing for Luke Graham there (think him and Bowie were two Scottish MPs she was pretty close to) |
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Post by aberdeensouth on Jul 2, 2024 9:59:52 GMT
She wouldn't make the journey if it wasn't tight. So a hint in itself. As we saw in the Perth and Kinross-shire thread she was also canvassing for Luke Graham there (think him and Bowie were two Scottish MPs she was pretty close to) This seat was always going to be a tight race. Bowie was May’s PPS, so this visit was presumably long - planned. May seems to like to keep in with the Scottish MPs. She does have them to thank for giving her a majority, after all. |
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