Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

[stb12]

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

[markgoodair]

Ray Georgeson is the Liberal Democrats candidate.

[Deleted]

It will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems campaign here much. They've been almost entirely squeezed out in the last 4 elections but this time there's bound to be a lot of voters who'd rather neither the Tories or SNP won.

[Tony Otim]

May 29, 2024 10:34:25 GMT @nw12398 said:

It will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems campaign here much. They've been almost entirely squeezed out in the last 4 elections but this time there's bound to be a lot of voters who'd rather neither the Tories or SNP won.

In terms of Lib Dem resources - where else are activists going to go? Edinburgh West must be pretty safe this time out, which would leave nowhere closer than Mid-Dunbartonshire or NE Fife. Edinburgh South I think is worth some Lib Dem effort, but more to try to re-capture second and build than anything else.

The real question is how many activists they have left in the area - last local elections saw a small improvement, but they only polled just ahead of us and were lacking candidates in several wards, so perhaps suggesting the party is not as strong here as once it was...

[Tony Otim]

Just to illustrate this, vote totals from the local elections from the wards wholly in this constituency (ie excluding the small part of Tweeddale East that's included:

Con 11531
Ind 10016
SNP 6724
LD 2833
GRN 2366
LAB 1584
OTH 319

[michaelarden]

May 29, 2024 12:14:50 GMT Tony Otim said:

Just to illustrate this, vote totals from the local elections from the wards wholly in this constituency (ie excluding the small part of Tweeddale East that's included:

Con 11531
Ind 10016
SNP 6724
LD 2833
GRN 2366
LAB 1584
OTH 319

Isn't there a long history here of Liberal Independents - wasn't David Steel's agent an independent local councillor for example?

[Tony Otim]

May 29, 2024 12:29:29 GMT michaelarden said:

May 29, 2024 12:14:50 GMT Tony Otim said:

Just to illustrate this, vote totals from the local elections from the wards wholly in this constituency (ie excluding the small part of Tweeddale East that's included:

Con 11531
Ind 10016
SNP 6724
LD 2833
GRN 2366
LAB 1584
OTH 319

Isn't there a long history here of Liberal Independents - wasn't David Steel's agent an independent local councillor for example?

Where it's possible to see from transfers (which isn't many wards due to either no LD candidate or them being eliminated before the indies) the indy vote broke fairly evenly but a bit more to the Tories than the Lib Dems. I'm not aware of any of them being particularly Liberal indies, but someone with more local knowledge may have a better idea.

[stb12]

May 29, 2024 12:00:37 GMT Tony Otim said:

May 29, 2024 10:34:25 GMT @nw12398 said:

It will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems campaign here much. They've been almost entirely squeezed out in the last 4 elections but this time there's bound to be a lot of voters who'd rather neither the Tories or SNP won.

In terms of Lib Dem resources - where else are activists going to go? Edinburgh West must be pretty safe this time out, which would leave nowhere closer than Mid-Dunbartonshire or NE Fife. Edinburgh South I think is worth some Lib Dem effort, but more to try to re-capture second and build than anything else.

The real question is how many activists they have left in the area - last local elections saw a small improvement, but they only polled just ahead of us and were lacking candidates in several wards, so perhaps suggesting the party is not as strong here as once it was...

I think I’m correct in saying that boundary changes in two of their seats (Caithness and NE Fife) put them notionally behind the SNP. Admittedly with the SNP’s poor polling for a while now and a further increased chance of unionist tactical voting they’re probably going to be safe in both but can’t afford to be complacent all the same in terms of committing resources

[Adam in Stroud]

May 29, 2024 13:40:00 GMT stb12 said:

May 29, 2024 12:00:37 GMT Tony Otim said:

In terms of Lib Dem resources - where else are activists going to go? Edinburgh West must be pretty safe this time out, which would leave nowhere closer than Mid-Dunbartonshire or NE Fife. Edinburgh South I think is worth some Lib Dem effort, but more to try to re-capture second and build than anything else.

The real question is how many activists they have left in the area - last local elections saw a small improvement, but they only polled just ahead of us and were lacking candidates in several wards, so perhaps suggesting the party is not as strong here as once it was...

I think I’m correct in saying that boundary changes in two of their seats (Caithness and NE Fife) put them notionally behind the SNP. Admittedly with the SNP’s poor polling for a while now and a further increased chance of unionist tactical voting they’re probably going to be safe in both but can’t afford to be complacent all the same in terms of committing resources

That's probably true, but even if it wasn't it wouldn't have much bearing on Berwickshire - Caithness and even Fife are a hell of distance away, in terms of the activist base they wouldn't help much.

I'd imagine Tony Otim is right in that the activist base is likely to be pretty decayed in this constituency and neighbouring ones, I fear. 

[stb12]

May 29, 2024 13:53:13 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

May 29, 2024 13:40:00 GMT stb12 said:

I think I’m correct in saying that boundary changes in two of their seats (Caithness and NE Fife) put them notionally behind the SNP. Admittedly with the SNP’s poor polling for a while now and a further increased chance of unionist tactical voting they’re probably going to be safe in both but can’t afford to be complacent all the same in terms of committing resources

That's probably true, but even if it wasn't it wouldn't have much bearing on Berwickshire - Caithness and even Fife are a hell of distance away, in terms of the activist base they wouldn't help much.

I'd imagine Tony Otim is right in that the activist base is likely to be pretty decayed in this constituency and neighbouring ones, I fear. 

Yeah it’s not my part of Scotland but it’s probably true, the last two Scottish parliament elections they haven’t even been able to win a list seat in the South Scotland region so there really is very little base to work with at all other than history

[iain]

8 candidates:
Lab, Con, LD, SNP, Reform , Green, Ind, Scottish Family Party

www.scotborders.gov.uk/elections-voting/elections

[binky]

Probably going to be the safest Tory seat in Scotland this time around?

[batman]

Possibly could be the only one?

[stb12]

Jun 19, 2024 12:13:13 GMT batman said:

Possibly could be the only one?

This would certainly be the last standing if they’re reduced to one seat. Dumfriesshire etc was the one Scottish seat previously but that was due to the Lib Dem strength in this seat which has now totally collapsed

[batman]

Psephologically this seat isn't that different from DC & T vis a vis the gap between the Tories & the SNP, but DC & T has a larger potential Labour vote & probably BR & S a larger potential LD one.

[stb12]

Jun 19, 2024 12:41:09 GMT batman said:

Psephologically this seat isn't that different from DC & T vis a vis the gap between the Tories & the SNP, but DC & T has a larger potential Labour vote & probably BR & S a larger potential LD one.

My instinct would be that both of those seats survive together, certainly David Mundell has survived tough situations previously, and there will still be a large element of anti-SNP tactical voting surviving in border areas

[graham]

Did not David Steel build up a strong personal vote in much of this seat which then transferred to Archie Kirkwod? Where has that gone?

[john07]

May 29, 2024 12:14:50 GMT Tony Otim said:

Just to illustrate this, vote totals from the local elections from the wards wholly in this constituency (ie excluding the small part of Tweeddale East that's included:

Con 11531
Ind 10016
SNP 6724
LD 2833
GRN 2366
LAB 1584
OTH 319

Are you equating a first preference vote on STV to an X in FPTP?

That would be dubious for any seat where tactical voting under FPTP comes into play. And yes tactical voting does come into play under STV, but it is a very different issue.

Take Edinburgh South and the Morningside division. The vote has traditionally been fairly evenly split between Conservative, Green, Lib Dem, and Labour, with the SNP trailing in local elections. I would wager that huge number of Tories and Lib Dems plus some Green votes would go to tactically to Labour in a General Election.

It all makes predictions based on local elections very complex.

[Tony Otim]

Jun 24, 2024 11:17:28 GMT john07 said:

May 29, 2024 12:14:50 GMT Tony Otim said:

Just to illustrate this, vote totals from the local elections from the wards wholly in this constituency (ie excluding the small part of Tweeddale East that's included:

Con 11531
Ind 10016
SNP 6724
LD 2833
GRN 2366
LAB 1584
OTH 319

Are you equating a first preference vote on STV to an X in FPTP?

That would be dubious for any seat where tactical voting under FPTP comes into play. And yes tactical voting does come into play under STV, but it is a very different issue.

Take Edinburgh South and the Morningside division. The vote has traditionally been fairly evenly split between Conservative, Green, Lib Dem, and Labour, with the SNP trailing in local elections. I would wager that huge number of Tories and Lib Dems plus some Green votes would go to tactically to Labour in a General Election.

It all makes predictions based on local elections very complex.

I'm not equating anything, just illustrating how the Lib Dem strength in this area has definitely waned in recent years.

[uthacalthing]

John Lamont is another of these dripping wet formidable campaigners who add nothing of value to Parliament. The ideal compromise candidate.