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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 1:48:53 GMT
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
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Post by markgoodair on May 29, 2024 7:03:47 GMT
Ray Georgeson is the Liberal Democrats candidate.
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Post by nw12398 on May 29, 2024 10:34:25 GMT
It will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems campaign here much. They've been almost entirely squeezed out in the last 4 elections but this time there's bound to be a lot of voters who'd rather neither the Tories or SNP won.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on May 29, 2024 12:00:37 GMT
It will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems campaign here much. They've been almost entirely squeezed out in the last 4 elections but this time there's bound to be a lot of voters who'd rather neither the Tories or SNP won. In terms of Lib Dem resources - where else are activists going to go? Edinburgh West must be pretty safe this time out, which would leave nowhere closer than Mid-Dunbartonshire or NE Fife. Edinburgh South I think is worth some Lib Dem effort, but more to try to re-capture second and build than anything else. The real question is how many activists they have left in the area - last local elections saw a small improvement, but they only polled just ahead of us and were lacking candidates in several wards, so perhaps suggesting the party is not as strong here as once it was...
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 29, 2024 12:14:50 GMT
Just to illustrate this, vote totals from the local elections from the wards wholly in this constituency (ie excluding the small part of Tweeddale East that's included:
Con 11531 Ind 10016 SNP 6724 LD 2833 GRN 2366 LAB 1584 OTH 319
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Post by michaelarden on May 29, 2024 12:29:29 GMT
Just to illustrate this, vote totals from the local elections from the wards wholly in this constituency (ie excluding the small part of Tweeddale East that's included: Con 11531 Ind 10016 SNP 6724 LD 2833 GRN 2366 LAB 1584 OTH 319 Isn't there a long history here of Liberal Independents - wasn't David Steel's agent an independent local councillor for example?
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 29, 2024 12:36:09 GMT
Just to illustrate this, vote totals from the local elections from the wards wholly in this constituency (ie excluding the small part of Tweeddale East that's included: Con 11531 Ind 10016 SNP 6724 LD 2833 GRN 2366 LAB 1584 OTH 319 Isn't there a long history here of Liberal Independents - wasn't David Steel's agent an independent local councillor for example? Where it's possible to see from transfers (which isn't many wards due to either no LD candidate or them being eliminated before the indies) the indy vote broke fairly evenly but a bit more to the Tories than the Lib Dems. I'm not aware of any of them being particularly Liberal indies, but someone with more local knowledge may have a better idea.
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Post by stb12 on May 29, 2024 13:40:00 GMT
It will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems campaign here much. They've been almost entirely squeezed out in the last 4 elections but this time there's bound to be a lot of voters who'd rather neither the Tories or SNP won. In terms of Lib Dem resources - where else are activists going to go? Edinburgh West must be pretty safe this time out, which would leave nowhere closer than Mid-Dunbartonshire or NE Fife. Edinburgh South I think is worth some Lib Dem effort, but more to try to re-capture second and build than anything else. The real question is how many activists they have left in the area - last local elections saw a small improvement, but they only polled just ahead of us and were lacking candidates in several wards, so perhaps suggesting the party is not as strong here as once it was... I think I’m correct in saying that boundary changes in two of their seats (Caithness and NE Fife) put them notionally behind the SNP. Admittedly with the SNP’s poor polling for a while now and a further increased chance of unionist tactical voting they’re probably going to be safe in both but can’t afford to be complacent all the same in terms of committing resources
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 29, 2024 13:53:13 GMT
In terms of Lib Dem resources - where else are activists going to go? Edinburgh West must be pretty safe this time out, which would leave nowhere closer than Mid-Dunbartonshire or NE Fife. Edinburgh South I think is worth some Lib Dem effort, but more to try to re-capture second and build than anything else. The real question is how many activists they have left in the area - last local elections saw a small improvement, but they only polled just ahead of us and were lacking candidates in several wards, so perhaps suggesting the party is not as strong here as once it was... I think I’m correct in saying that boundary changes in two of their seats (Caithness and NE Fife) put them notionally behind the SNP. Admittedly with the SNP’s poor polling for a while now and a further increased chance of unionist tactical voting they’re probably going to be safe in both but can’t afford to be complacent all the same in terms of committing resources That's probably true, but even if it wasn't it wouldn't have much bearing on Berwickshire - Caithness and even Fife are a hell of distance away, in terms of the activist base they wouldn't help much. I'd imagine Tony Otim is right in that the activist base is likely to be pretty decayed in this constituency and neighbouring ones, I fear.
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Post by stb12 on May 29, 2024 14:12:26 GMT
I think I’m correct in saying that boundary changes in two of their seats (Caithness and NE Fife) put them notionally behind the SNP. Admittedly with the SNP’s poor polling for a while now and a further increased chance of unionist tactical voting they’re probably going to be safe in both but can’t afford to be complacent all the same in terms of committing resources That's probably true, but even if it wasn't it wouldn't have much bearing on Berwickshire - Caithness and even Fife are a hell of distance away, in terms of the activist base they wouldn't help much. I'd imagine Tony Otim is right in that the activist base is likely to be pretty decayed in this constituency and neighbouring ones, I fear. Yeah it’s not my part of Scotland but it’s probably true, the last two Scottish parliament elections they haven’t even been able to win a list seat in the South Scotland region so there really is very little base to work with at all other than history
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jun 7, 2024 23:41:24 GMT
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binky
Non-Aligned
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Post by binky on Jun 19, 2024 12:06:22 GMT
Probably going to be the safest Tory seat in Scotland this time around?
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 12:13:13 GMT
Possibly could be the only one?
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Post by stb12 on Jun 19, 2024 12:21:37 GMT
Possibly could be the only one? This would certainly be the last standing if they’re reduced to one seat. Dumfriesshire etc was the one Scottish seat previously but that was due to the Lib Dem strength in this seat which has now totally collapsed
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 12:41:09 GMT
Psephologically this seat isn't that different from DC & T vis a vis the gap between the Tories & the SNP, but DC & T has a larger potential Labour vote & probably BR & S a larger potential LD one.
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Post by stb12 on Jun 19, 2024 12:44:10 GMT
Psephologically this seat isn't that different from DC & T vis a vis the gap between the Tories & the SNP, but DC & T has a larger potential Labour vote & probably BR & S a larger potential LD one. My instinct would be that both of those seats survive together, certainly David Mundell has survived tough situations previously, and there will still be a large element of anti-SNP tactical voting surviving in border areas
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graham
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Post by graham on Jun 24, 2024 10:37:46 GMT
Did not David Steel build up a strong personal vote in much of this seat which then transferred to Archie Kirkwod? Where has that gone?
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 24, 2024 11:17:28 GMT
Just to illustrate this, vote totals from the local elections from the wards wholly in this constituency (ie excluding the small part of Tweeddale East that's included: Con 11531 Ind 10016 SNP 6724 LD 2833 GRN 2366 LAB 1584 OTH 319 Are you equating a first preference vote on STV to an X in FPTP? That would be dubious for any seat where tactical voting under FPTP comes into play. And yes tactical voting does come into play under STV, but it is a very different issue. Take Edinburgh South and the Morningside division. The vote has traditionally been fairly evenly split between Conservative, Green, Lib Dem, and Labour, with the SNP trailing in local elections. I would wager that huge number of Tories and Lib Dems plus some Green votes would go to tactically to Labour in a General Election. It all makes predictions based on local elections very complex.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 24, 2024 11:25:03 GMT
Just to illustrate this, vote totals from the local elections from the wards wholly in this constituency (ie excluding the small part of Tweeddale East that's included: Con 11531 Ind 10016 SNP 6724 LD 2833 GRN 2366 LAB 1584 OTH 319 Are you equating a first preference vote on STV to an X in FPTP? That would be dubious for any seat where tactical voting under FPTP comes into play. And yes tactical voting does come into play under STV, but it is a very different issue. Take Edinburgh South and the Morningside division. The vote has traditionally been fairly evenly split between Conservative, Green, Lib Dem, and Labour, with the SNP trailing in local elections. I would wager that huge number of Tories and Lib Dems plus some Green votes would go to tactically to Labour in a General Election. It all makes predictions based on local elections very complex. I'm not equating anything, just illustrating how the Lib Dem strength in this area has definitely waned in recent years.
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Post by uthacalthing on Jun 26, 2024 8:35:25 GMT
John Lamont is another of these dripping wet formidable campaigners who add nothing of value to Parliament. The ideal compromise candidate.
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