stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 1:46:26 GMT
Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
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Post by uthacalthing on Apr 6, 2024 22:36:33 GMT
Notionally the SNPs safest seat, the SNP have selected former NE Fife MP Stephen Gethins
After losing his Westminster seat Gethins was appointed Professor of Practice in International Relations at the University of St Andrews.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on May 3, 2024 16:37:38 GMT
Deleted already. See Dundee for details! Or not!
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on May 3, 2024 19:01:26 GMT
I predict an independent gain here for Bob Servant.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 1,084
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Post by Sg1 on May 3, 2024 19:05:51 GMT
I predict an independent gain here for Bob Servant. He'll play the Braveheart card, no doubt. Free wellies has clinched it for me.
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Post by markgoodair on May 23, 2024 20:26:46 GMT
Ghazi Khan will be the Alba party candidate.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 7, 2024 17:33:20 GMT
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 426
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Post by xenon on Jun 18, 2024 18:48:10 GMT
This is my seat. Notionally this is one of the safest SNP seats in the country. The party has historic strength in both the eastern fringes of Dundee and coastal towns of Monifieth, Carnoustie and Arbroath, their weakest area probably being the more affluent suburb of Broughty Ferry.
The main opposition is also fairly evenly split between Labour in the Dundee half, and the Conservatives in the Angus half, although the former obviously performed very poorly in 2019. Labour will likely take second place this time around, although I notice that today's Ipsos MRP has them only 1 point shy of the SNP, on 35% to the SNP's 36% (https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/ipsos-election-mrp), and the Tories trailing behind on 16%.
The SNP probably have the most competent candidate in Stephen Gethins, a former NE Fife MP and international relations expert, and one of the few SNP voices whose contributions would undeniably carry real weight and be nationally relevant, particularly if nominated for the Foreign Affairs Committee as he was previously. He was rather unlucky in being the only SNP MP to lose their seat in 2019.
His Labour opponent is Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank, who is the chief executive of the Dundee University Students' Union, which is a fairly useful background in terms of being familiar with common constituency problems (albeit some mainly affecting a small subset of the electorate). However there were questions raised after her imposition as Labour's candidate by the SEC, a member of which is Cheryl-Ann's mother Georgia (who is also a councillor for Maryfield ward just over the border in Dundee Central).
The Tory and Lib Dem candidates are both parachuted in from Aberdeenshire.
Gethins would undeniably make a more competent and more prominent MP than Cruickshank due to his previous experience, and the fact that he would presumably be one of only a dozen or so remaining SNP MPs, rather than one among several hundred new and anonymous Labour backbenchers. However I cannot in good conscience vote for the SNP in their current state, as the national leadership are stale, incompetent and increasingly rudderless (let alone the fact that I do not wish to facilitate their bizarre independence proxy-vote strategy).
The situation leaves me in rather a quandary. I had made my mind up some weeks ago to vote Labour safe in the knowledge that they had basically no chance of winning the seat – but the previously mentioned poll seems to upset that narrative somewhat (even if it turns out to be an outlier). I shall probably still vote for Cruickshank (the only alternative being to vote for the anonymous Lib Dem, which would be completely pointless), but will do so in the vague hope that she loses narrowly – ideally by the same two vote margin that occured in North East Fife in 2017. This would hopefully keep Prof Gethins honest and reduce the sort of smarmy SNP complacency that has been all too common recently.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 19, 2024 6:31:08 GMT
This is my seat. Notionally this is one of the safest SNP seats in the country. The party has historic strength in both the eastern fringes of Dundee and coastal towns of Monifieth, Carnoustie and Arbroath, their weakest area probably being the more affluent suburb of Broughty Ferry. The main opposition is also fairly evenly split between Labour in the Dundee half, and the Conservatives in the Angus half, although the former obviously performed very poorly in 2019. Labour will likely take second place this time around, although I notice that today's Ipsos MRP has them only 1 point shy of the SNP, on 35% to the SNP's 36% (https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opinion-polls/ipsos-election-mrp), and the Tories trailing behind on 16%. The SNP probably have the most competent candidate in Stephen Gethins, a former NE Fife MP and international relations expert, and one of the few SNP voices whose contributions would undeniably carry real weight and be nationally relevant, particularly if nominated for the Foreign Affairs Committee as he was previously. He was rather unlucky in being the only SNP MP to lose their seat in 2019. His Labour opponent is Cheryl-Ann Cruickshank, who is the chief executive of the Dundee University Students' Union, which is a fairly useful background in terms of being familiar with common constituency problems (albeit some mainly affecting a small subset of the electorate). However there were questions raised after her imposition as Labour's candidate by the SEC, a member of which is Cheryl-Ann's mother Georgia (who is also a councillor for Maryfield ward just over the border in Dundee Central). The Tory and Lib Dem candidates are both parachuted in from Aberdeenshire. Gethins would undeniably make a more competent and more prominent MP than Cruickshank due to his previous experience, and the fact that he would presumably be one of only a dozen or so remaining SNP MPs, rather than one among several hundred new and anonymous Labour backbenchers. However I cannot in good conscience vote for the SNP in their current state, as the national leadership are stale, incompetent and increasingly rudderless (let alone the fact that I do not wish to facilitate their bizarre independence proxy-vote strategy). The situation leaves me in rather a quandary. I had made my mind up some weeks ago to vote Labour safe in the knowledge that they had basically no chance of winning the seat – but the previously mentioned poll seems to upset that narrative somewhat (even if it turns out to be an outlier). I shall probably still vote for Cruickshank (the only alternative being to vote for the anonymous Lib Dem, which would be completely pointless), but will do so in the vague hope that she loses narrowly – ideally by the same two vote margin that occured in North East Fife in 2017. This would hopefully keep Prof Gethins honest and reduce the sort of smarmy SNP complacency that has been all too common recently. Hopefully, as an international relations prof, he'll also be the new counterweight to the pro-Putin, pro-Russian tendency among some on the left of SNP given Stewart MacDonald looks like he may lose.
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Post by irish observer on Jun 26, 2024 17:37:49 GMT
I give this to Gethins as future SNP leader.
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xenon
Forum Regular
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Post by xenon on Jun 26, 2024 18:28:18 GMT
I give this to Gethins as future SNP leader. He'd probably in with a shot this year if Flynn somehow loses (which I don't think is very likely) and the SNP are reduced to single digits (which I think is even less likely). But definitely one to watch out for, he seems to be going quite strong on the pro-EU angle, but I'm not entirely sure who his allies are/were in the SNP's Westminster group.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 26, 2024 18:42:05 GMT
The EU focus is a good play from Gethins in the Ferry given how well the Liberal Democrats did on a local level there in 2022.
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xenon
Forum Regular
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Post by xenon on Jun 26, 2024 18:52:01 GMT
The EU focus is a good play from Gethins in the Ferry given how well the Liberal Democrats did on a local level there in 2022. I think that increase was entirely down to the popularity of Cllr Craig Duncan rather than any great love of the Lib Dems or Europhile policies in general (same story as Fraser MacPherson in the West End). However the Tories did do notably badly in what was previously a pretty strong area for them, and I would imagine Broughty Ferry definitely swings heavily Remain in a similar way to middle class professional dominated areas in other Scottish cities.
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stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
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Post by stb12 on Jun 26, 2024 19:17:38 GMT
I give this to Gethins as future SNP leader. He'd probably in with a shot this year if Flynn somehow loses (which I don't think is very likely) and the SNP are reduced to single digits (which I think is even less likely). But definitely one to watch out for, he seems to be going quite strong on the pro-EU angle, but I'm not entirely sure who his allies are/were in the SNP's Westminster group. Although the SNP Westminster leader will have reduced profile if the Lib Dems retake the third party status
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jun 26, 2024 21:25:41 GMT
Calling this for the SNP.
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xenon
Forum Regular
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Post by xenon on Jun 27, 2024 14:10:52 GMT
Hadn't come across the Sovereignity Party before (and had assumed they were just another indy fundamentalist splinter), but on closer inspection they seem to be far loopier than that: whocanivotefor.co.uk/person/117350/moira-macpherson-brownDescribes herself as "Scotland's foremost anti-lockdown protester", which can't have been particularly effective as I've never heard of her.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 27, 2024 14:33:13 GMT
Hadn't come across the Sovereignity Party before (and had assumed they were just another indy fundamentalist splinter), but on closer inspection they seem to be far loopier than that: whocanivotefor.co.uk/person/117350/moira-macpherson-brownDescribes herself as "Scotland's foremost anti-lockdown protester", which can't have been particularly effective as I've never heard of her. They've stood in a few local elections - the Borders in 2022 and by-election there, plus recent by-election in West Dunbartonshire. Results to date suggest they will not be over-taxing for those counting the votes.
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Post by batman on Jul 17, 2024 15:37:55 GMT
I've only just clocked the result here. Although Labour generally performed very strongly in Scotland, this may perhaps have some claim to be their very best result of all, even though the SNP's Stephen Gethins held the seat. I can barely believe that Labour got well over twice the Tory vote & was only about 800 votes away from winning in this territory; Labour has never figured in Arbroath, still less in its surrounds, at least not in my adult lifetime, and Broughty Ferry has never been a Labour area. Labour must have polled extremely well in the remaining Dundee city wards & in Carnoustie to have come this close. They will be disappointed not to have won in either Dundee seat although disappointment in Scotland has been sparse generally speaking
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2024 15:41:04 GMT
Politically perhaps this should be 'Dundee Outer'
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jul 17, 2024 21:13:25 GMT
I think Broughty Ferry is mostly Tory so I imagine a lot of those voters will have tactically gone to Labour. And of course, Labour will have polled well in Dundee too as Batman mentions - we know this by how close Labour came to unseating Chris Law. A very bad night for the SNP could've been a whole lot worse.
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