xenon
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Posts: 421
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Post by xenon on Jul 18, 2024 18:57:32 GMT
I have just realised I haven't done a proper debrief on my seat. I concur with batman that this is a very significant result (even more so than Dundee Central, and probably only tied with Stirling and Strathallan as to Labour's best Scottish turnaround). Broughty Ferry will have almost certainly voted Labour, and likely by a greater margin over the SNP than the more working class Dundee areas to the west of it. Monifieth will have done similarly, as it has very similar demographics although it is slightly less affluent. Carnoustie and Arbroath are hard to judge seeing as local elections in the former have been dominated by independents recently, and Labour have barely registered at all in either of them (whereas they currently have a councillor in both Monifieth and Broughty Ferry). I would imagine the SNP probably led these two towns, as well as the surrounding landward areas. The two Dundee proper wards are too close to call (if I had to guess then East End would be Labour and North East would be SNP, although both going Labour isn't impossible if the rural SNP vote held up to a similar degree as neighbouring constituencies). My "ideal result" basically came true, and if the SNP continue to slide then there is a real chance this could go Labour's way in 2029. I will monitor Gethins' parliamentary contributions with interest. Hopefully they will be more constructive than the ones I've seen recently from Flynn and Wishart who if anything seem to have become even more confrontational despite their heavy losses.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2024 20:48:29 GMT
Yes. Hopefully we can remove the remaining SNP MPs in 2029. This turns red. Argyll, the Perthshire seats etc all finally turn blue. The SNP lead in Aberdeenshire North as well as Moray West was small.
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 421
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Post by xenon on Jul 18, 2024 21:00:31 GMT
Yes. Hopefully we can remove the remaining SNP MPs in 2029. This turns red. Argyll, the Perthshire seats etc all finally turn blue. The SNP lead in Aberdeenshire North as well as Moray West was small. The SNP have won seats in every general election since 1970. I would be very surprised if they were completely wiped out – they will have an Edinburgh South equivalent. Before this election many had thought it would be here, but now it's more likely to be a multi-party marginal (Argyll or Aberdeen South), whichever seat covers Perth (which has evaded the Tories for so long), or Na h-Eileanan an Iar (to continue its long tradition of voting however it jolly well pleases).
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Post by batman on Jul 18, 2024 21:07:04 GMT
Not the last-named, surely. Torcuil Crichton got almost 50% of the vote this year, and will enjoy a first-time incumbency boost, although in the longer term he is going on 60 & may not be good for that many parliaments. I'm sure eventually the SNP will win that seat back, but I very much doubt that it will be next time.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Aug 16, 2024 0:05:01 GMT
I have just realised I haven't done a proper debrief on my seat. I concur with batman that this is a very significant result (even more so than Dundee Central, and probably only tied with Stirling and Strathallan as to Labour's best Scottish turnaround). Broughty Ferry will have almost certainly voted Labour, and likely by a greater margin over the SNP than the more working class Dundee areas to the west of it. Monifieth will have done similarly, as it has very similar demographics although it is slightly less affluent. Carnoustie and Arbroath are hard to judge seeing as local elections in the former have been dominated by independents recently, and Labour have barely registered at all in either of them (whereas they currently have a councillor in both Monifieth and Broughty Ferry). I would imagine the SNP probably led these two towns, as well as the surrounding landward areas. The two Dundee proper wards are too close to call (if I had to guess then East End would be Labour and North East would be SNP, although both going Labour isn't impossible if the rural SNP vote held up to a similar degree as neighbouring constituencies). My "ideal result" basically came true, and if the SNP continue to slide then there is a real chance this could go Labour's way in 2029. I will monitor Gethins' parliamentary contributions with interest. Hopefully they will be more constructive than the ones I've seen recently from Flynn and Wishart who if anything seem to have become even more confrontational despite their heavy losses. Carnoustie and Arbroath will have both voted SNP, Carnoustie more so than Arbroath. Had the old boundaries been in place, Labour would have likely won both seats covering Dundee.
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