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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 1:33:53 GMT
York Outer
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Mar 14, 2024 17:42:38 GMT
Almanac profileCandidatesDarren Borrows (Ind) Luke Charters (Lab) John Crispin-Bailey (Reform UK) David Eadington (Yorkshire Party) Keith Hayden (Ind) Andrew Hollyer (Lib Dem) Mike Kearney (Green) Hal Mayne (Ind) Julian Sturdy* (Con)
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 7, 2024 18:14:26 GMT
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Jun 22, 2024 21:35:04 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Jun 23, 2024 18:22:46 GMT
Could the Conservatives drop from 1st to 3rd here? Whilst Labour is best positioned to benefit from tactical anti-Conservative votes here this seat's demographics are naturally quite favourable to the Liberal Democrats.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 24, 2024 0:35:02 GMT
Could the Conservatives drop from 1st to 3rd here? Whilst Labour is best positioned to benefit from tactical anti-Conservative votes here this seat's demographics are naturally quite favourable to the Liberal Democrats. It was a Lib Dem target as a newly created seat back in 2010 and they came up short by about 3.5K votes. They got coalitioned - the opposite of tangoed - in 2015 and it's given Labour the chance to step in. In answer to your question I imagine it's possible given the polls and the enduring strength of the Lib Dems at a local level but it depends how many of their supporters vote tactically to remove the incumbent and the impact of Reform on the Conservative vote of course.
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 24, 2024 0:40:08 GMT
Did he win? It would be useful to know before I vote on the outcome here.
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right
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Post by right on Jun 24, 2024 4:25:17 GMT
Did he win? It would be useful to know before I vote on the outcome here. Definitely the best independent candidate yet. I've been complaining about how content free they are, and that would certainly not be fair about him
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 4:30:35 GMT
Prediction
LAB 46 CON 24 LD 22 GRN 4 REF 3 OTH 1
The Tories will struggle to win this back (and yes, this was notionally Lib Dem before 2010 like Oxford East, IIR).
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steve
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Post by steve on Jun 24, 2024 7:01:58 GMT
Prediction LAB 46 CON 24 LD 22 GRN 4 REF 3 OTH 1 The Tories will struggle to win this back (and yes, this was notionally Lib Dem before 2010 like Oxford East, IIR). This seat has the potential to be a Lab/Lib Dems contest in 2028/29, although who knows what our politics will be like by then given what may occur in July.
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YL
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Post by YL on Jul 9, 2024 7:07:43 GMT
This was one of Labour's more impressive gains, with their vote share up 15.4 percentage points and a majority not far short of 10,000.
It's also now the least deprived Labour seat.
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Post by matureleft on Jul 9, 2024 7:39:14 GMT
This was one of Labour's more impressive gains, with their vote share up 15.4 percentage points and a majority not far short of 10,000. It's also now the least deprived Labour seat. Yes, staggering, and another of the seats where Reform intervention didn’t alter the result but merely increased the Labour majority. Seats like this illustrate the choice of strategy that must be made by the Tories. Go for the Reform voters and their agenda or pursue a more centre-right approach (but with some evidence of competence).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2024 7:47:05 GMT
This was one of Labour's more impressive gains, with their vote share up 15.4 percentage points and a majority not far short of 10,000. It's also now the least deprived Labour seat. Yes, staggering, and another of the seats where Reform intervention didn’t alter the result but merely increased the Labour majority. Seats like this illustrate the choice of strategy that must be made by the Tories. Go for the Reform voters and their agenda or pursue a more centre-right approach (but with some evidence of competence). Not at all staggering. I wish people woiuld this again before being shocked by this and that, or staged by x, y, z result. This seat is doianted by well-payed public sector professionals at York Uni and York St John uni (the later has grown exponentially in recent times and a look at all the students in the city proves that. The days when York had a thriving private sector (Fry's, Rowntree's, Terry's) are long gone and the old factories in York are all yuppy apartments (my grandad worked at Rowntrees 1955 - 88)
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Post by matureleft on Jul 9, 2024 10:38:16 GMT
Yes, staggering, and another of the seats where Reform intervention didn’t alter the result but merely increased the Labour majority. Seats like this illustrate the choice of strategy that must be made by the Tories. Go for the Reform voters and their agenda or pursue a more centre-right approach (but with some evidence of competence). Not at all staggering. I wish people woiuld this again before being shocked by this and that, or staged by x, y, z result. This seat is doianted by well-payed public sector professionals at York Uni and York St John uni (the later has grown exponentially in recent times and a look at all the students in the city proves that. The days when York had a thriving private sector (Fry's, Rowntree's, Terry's) are long gone and the old factories in York are all yuppy apartments (my grandad worked at Rowntrees 1955 - 88) I see. So that growth has happened in the last 5 years in spite of the tough time that universities have had? And they all live here? While chocolate is certainly less important than it was it hasn’t disappeared. And the place is HQ to a range of major private sector businesses. What you may be trying to say is there’s less manufacturing here than there was and the private sector is more centred on services (and corporate governance in its various forms) than it was. True, but this is scarcely unique to here. I’ve heard this line before that a place is full of public service professionals now who all vote Labour. It’s facile and poorly argued. First, has the squeeze on local government passed people by? They employ substantially fewer people than they did. Most other parts of the public sector (with a very qualified exception of parts of the NHS) have also suffered cuts. And universities (while this will be patchier) have not had an employment bonanza. Secondly, private sector employment has altered nationwide (not just in a seat like this). We make less. Much of that change happened in the 1980s but it has continued. We have more service sector jobs at all levels. They remain private sector. Thirdly, and most materially, it’s unclear why such changes must disadvantage the Tory party. I lived in Cambridge through a long period of change. The bit that puzzled me was why the Tory party seemed to alienate the highly educated (and often highly-paid) private sector workers migrating to the area. Surely a low-tax but liberal and internationalist offering would appeal? But that increasingly wasn’t what they got.
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