Post by Robert Waller on Nov 20, 2023 23:43:57 GMT
Another update of a profile by warofdreams, by myself but with comments on boundary changes by YL
York Outer is a doughnut, completely surrounding the seat of York Central. This unusual set-up, one of only two such examples in the UK*, has existed only since 2010, and while York receives a lot of tourists, most visitors will only pass through this constituency and will not tarry in it. Its name was not a popular choice, but it is hard to come up with a better name for a constituency with no centre. The manner of the split has made York Outer a safe Conservative seat so far, held by Julian Sturdy since its creation, but it is far from universally middle class or Tory, especially in local elections. It is actually more mixed in character than may be thought.
The seat includes some suburbs of York, particularly in the north, where it includes half the Nestle chocolate factory and the model village of New Earswick, built by Joseph Rowntree to house its workers. It also covers the modern housing estates of Rawcliffe and Clifton Without, and the pleasant suburbanised villages of Fulford (south), Huntington (north east), and Osbaldwick (east). Dringhouses, to the southwest, is more mixed, including some council housing. Further out are the small town of Haxby and numerous villages. Bishopthorpe, home of the Archbishop of York's palace, Copmanthorpe, and Poppleton, are essentially outer suburbs, while even the smaller and more remote villages are close enough to the city that many residents commute in to work.
There are distinct differences in the demographic variables that can be applied to the neighbourhoods of York Outer. Although overall this constituency is one of the most owner highly owner occupied in housing tenure in England and Wales at 7th place of 575 seats with 80.3%, there is one concentration of the social rented sector in New Earswick MSOA in the 2021 census – 30.7%. This reflects New Earswock’s industrial background as originally the site of the model village constructed for workers at Rowntree’s chocolate factory from 1902; the village is still largely owned and run by the Joseph Rowntree Housing Trust. Similarly the Huntington and New Earswick MSOAs are the most working class in occupational terms, with around 30% professional and managerial only, compared with nearly 50% in Bishopthorpe and Copmanthorpe, for example, and the same in South Bank & Dringhouses. The last named MSOA also has the highest percentage with university degrees, at over 56%.
Nov 23, 2022 18:20:05 GMT YL said:
The Boundary Commission's proposals make only minor changes to the two York constituencies, realigning with new ward boundaries. However, one change may be significant: the main campus of York University moves from Outer to Central; this may make this seat a little harder for Labour to win. Generally, the Conservatives have tended to do well in the rural areas, and the Lib Dems to win the suburbs, some with large majorities. However, in the 2019 locals, the Conservatives performed very poorly, taking only 2 seats on the City of York Council, both in this constituency, with the Lib Dems and some independents mopping up the remainder. In the most recent municipal elections in May 2023 the Tories were rewarded in only three wards in all: the elegant Bishopthorpe, where they held off a Green challenge by 44 votes, Copmanthorpe, adjacent in the south west corner of the York Outer seat, where they narrowly ousted an incumbent Independent, and sharing the eastern more rural, and hence larger in acreage, Osbaldwick & Derwent with an Independent, though the candidature pattern suggested they may have run together.
The Liberal Democrats again returned the most councillors in York Outer, winning most of the rest of the 12 wards within the constituency, including all of them in the highly populated northern tier of Heworth Without, Huntington & New Earswick and Rawcliffe & Clifton Without – in all of which it is hard to see where York Central might end and Outer begin. They also won two more rural wards still further north more independent of the city: Haxby & Wigginton, which make up a separate built up area with over 9,500 electors and so merits three council seats; and the even more rural Strensall where they made a gain from the Conservatives in 2023 compared with 2019. Other yellow victories were Rural West York (self explanatory) and further in, the urban Dringhouses & Woodthorpe, and Wheldrake in the outermost south eastern quadrant of the York council area
Labour were successful in one ward in May 2023, which was a gain from the Lib Dems. This was Fulford & Heslington, further in than Wheldrake in the south eastern sector. 12% of this ward’s electors were in York Central before the boundary changes, but this anomaly will now be ironed out and it will all be in York Outer. The same applies to three other split wards: Heworth Without (9% of which has been in Central), Fulford & Heslington (12%) and Rawcliffe & Clifton without (3%). Overall, adding up all the votes in the York Outer seat in 2023, the Liberal Democrats led with a 44% share, well ahead of Conservatives (21.7%) and Labour (20.9%), with the Greens on 8.0%.
Voting patterns in general elections are very different. While the Lib Dems were only 6.9% behind the Conservatives in 2010, since then, they have only managed third, with the challenge, such as it is, coming from the Labour Party, whose candidate polled 31% in December 2019 compared with 18% for the Liberal Democrat. Therefore a major question for the next general election, presumably in 2024, is whether the Liberal Democrat local vote will continue not to translate to Westminster contests. If it does not, will it coalesce behind a resurgent national Labour party in a collection if wards in which they have so weak a local base? Will a split in the opposition enable even an enfeebled and unpopular Conservative party, in all probability heading out of government, to cling on even if their share in York Outer drops to 40% or below? These are all moot points in this unusual, even odd, but interesting seat.
*After the boundary review, the other one will be Warwick & Leamington within Kenilworth & Southam. Before it, there was also one other, Bath within NE Somerset. Credit nyx and warofdreams for these two points.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 25.3% 74/575
Owner occupied 80.3% 7/575
Private rented 11.1% 567/575
Social rented 8.6% 553/575
White 95.7% 152/575
Black 0.4% 482/575
Asian 2.0% 391/575
Managerial & professional 40.3% 153/575
Routine & Semi-routine 20.4% 444/575
Degree level 39.2% 128/575
No qualifications 14.2% 460/575
Students 6.2% 223/575
General Election 2019: York Outer
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Julian Sturdy 27,324 49.4 -1.7
Labour Anna Perrett 17,339 31.3 -5.4
Liberal Democrats Keith Aspden 9,992 18.1 +7.8
Independent Scott Marmion 692 1.3
C Majority 9,985 18.1 +3.7
2019 electorate 74,673
Turnout 55,588 74.4 -1.7
Conservative hold
Swing 1.8 Lab to C
Boundary Changes
York Outer consists of
96.7% of York Outer
1.4% of York Central
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/yorkshire-and-the-humber/Yorkshire%20and%20the%20Humber%20Region_543_York%20Outer_Landscape.pdf
2019 Notional Results on New Boundaries (Rallings and Thrasher)
| Con | 27173 | 49.6% |
| Lab | 16391 | 29.9% |
| LD | 10222 | 18.7% |
| Ind | 692 | 1.3% |
| Brexit | 263 | 0.5% |
| Green | 9 | 0.0% |
| Con Majority | 7579 | 13.9% |
