Spen Valley

[stb12]

Spen Valley

[YL]

Almanac profile

Candidates

Javed Bashir (Ind)
Alison Brelsford (Lib Dem)
Laura Evans (Con)
Kim Leadbeater* (Lab)
Martin Price (Green)
Sarah Wood (Reform UK)

[YL]

This is quite an interesting constituency. There's a consensus among those who have done notional calculations that it's notionally Tory, but the estimated majorities vary quite a bit, and it has a Labour incumbent who has chosen it over the neighbouring, and notionally much more Labour, Dewsbury & Batley. I know it was reported that Leadbeater did quite well in the by-election in the wards going into this constituency, and she must be likely to win unless the national environment changes, but by how much?

[borisminor]

Mar 17, 2024 8:10:45 GMT YL said:

This is quite an interesting constituency. There's a consensus among those who have done notional calculations that it's notionally Tory, but the estimated majorities vary quite a bit, and it has a Labour incumbent who has chosen it over the neighbouring, and notionally much more Labour, Dewsbury & Batley. I know it was reported that Leadbeater did quite well in the by-election in the wards going into this constituency, and she must be likely to win unless the national environment changes, but by how much?

Yes Spen Valley is clearly notionally Conservative. I suspect the notional Conservative lead would be far larger if the Heavy Woollen Independent hadn't received 12.2% in Batley and Spen who clearly took a lot of the pro-Brexit/anti-Corbyn votes. In fact there is a possibility that Batley and Spen would have gone Conservative if the Independent hadn't stood, and the exit poll projections had this as Conservative on election night. In the by-election I suspect if Kim Leadbeater won the Spen Valley wards she would have only won them narrowly, there would have been very few Conservative votes in Batley especially with Galloway standing. I imagine Batley and Spen, 2021 was a case of coming through the middle of a split vote to win.  Leadbeater is clearly the favourite to win here and is putting a lot of work in on the ground and already has a large amount of name recognition in the new areas of the seat.

[bsjmcr]

Mar 19, 2024 10:55:04 GMT borisminor said:

Mar 17, 2024 8:10:45 GMT YL said:

This is quite an interesting constituency. There's a consensus among those who have done notional calculations that it's notionally Tory, but the estimated majorities vary quite a bit, and it has a Labour incumbent who has chosen it over the neighbouring, and notionally much more Labour, Dewsbury & Batley. I know it was reported that Leadbeater did quite well in the by-election in the wards going into this constituency, and she must be likely to win unless the national environment changes, but by how much?

Yes Spen Valley is clearly notionally Conservative. I suspect the notional Conservative lead would be far larger if the Heavy Woollen Independent hadn't received 12.2% in Batley and Spen who clearly took a lot of the pro-Brexit/anti-Corbyn votes. In fact there is a possibility that Batley and Spen would have gone Conservative if the Independent hadn't stood, and the exit poll projections had this as Conservative on election night. In the by-election I suspect if Kim Leadbeater won the Spen Valley wards she would have only won them narrowly, there would have been very few Conservative votes in Batley especially with Galloway standing. I imagine Batley and Spen, 2021 was a case of coming through the middle of a split vote to win.  Leadbeater is clearly the favourite to win here and is putting a lot of work in on the ground and already has a large amount of name recognition in the new areas of the seat.

Have Labour selected for Dewsbury & Batley yet? It is interesting she went for the notionally less strong Labour seat. There are of course a lot of complex issues in the current time in the Dewsbury and Batley areas, perhaps felt it would be a headache and best to leave it to a local Asian candidate - I thought the former Kirklees council leader would have been a shoo-in but believe he stood down in disgrace over a colleague’s speeding fines (why is it always speed cameras?).
And I assume Kim feels she wasn’t destined for a life in politics, and is not a ‘career politican’, and if and when she loses Spen Valley (say in the ‘2005’ equivalent future election), wouldn’t mind at all, and will continue to have a career in in public life as an active campaigner. 

[borisminor]

Apr 12, 2024 11:07:08 GMT bsjmcr said:

Mar 19, 2024 10:55:04 GMT borisminor said:

Yes Spen Valley is clearly notionally Conservative. I suspect the notional Conservative lead would be far larger if the Heavy Woollen Independent hadn't received 12.2% in Batley and Spen who clearly took a lot of the pro-Brexit/anti-Corbyn votes. In fact there is a possibility that Batley and Spen would have gone Conservative if the Independent hadn't stood, and the exit poll projections had this as Conservative on election night. In the by-election I suspect if Kim Leadbeater won the Spen Valley wards she would have only won them narrowly, there would have been very few Conservative votes in Batley especially with Galloway standing. I imagine Batley and Spen, 2021 was a case of coming through the middle of a split vote to win.  Leadbeater is clearly the favourite to win here and is putting a lot of work in on the ground and already has a large amount of name recognition in the new areas of the seat.

Have Labour selected for Dewsbury & Batley yet? It is interesting she went for the notionally less strong Labour seat. There are of course a lot of complex issues in the current time in the Dewsbury and Batley areas, perhaps felt it would be a headache and best to leave it to a local Asian candidate - I thought the former Kirklees council leader would have been a shoo-in but believe he stood down in disgrace over a colleague’s speeding fines (why is it always speed cameras?).
And I assume Kim feels she wasn’t destined for a life in politics, and is not a ‘career politican’, and if and when she loses Spen Valley (say in the ‘2005’ equivalent future election), wouldn’t mind at all, and will continue to have a career in in public life as an active campaigner. 

No they haven't selected as far as I am aware. I imagine that it is getting too late to run a full selection so are deliberately waiting for the election to be called so they can impose someone convenient to the leadership.

[edgbaston]

Apr 12, 2024 20:07:31 GMT borisminor said:

Apr 12, 2024 11:07:08 GMT bsjmcr said:

Have Labour selected for Dewsbury & Batley yet? It is interesting she went for the notionally less strong Labour seat. There are of course a lot of complex issues in the current time in the Dewsbury and Batley areas, perhaps felt it would be a headache and best to leave it to a local Asian candidate - I thought the former Kirklees council leader would have been a shoo-in but believe he stood down in disgrace over a colleague’s speeding fines (why is it always speed cameras?).
And I assume Kim feels she wasn’t destined for a life in politics, and is not a ‘career politican’, and if and when she loses Spen Valley (say in the ‘2005’ equivalent future election), wouldn’t mind at all, and will continue to have a career in in public life as an active campaigner. 

No they haven't selected as far as I am aware. I imagine that it is getting too late to run a full selection so are deliberately waiting for the election to be called so they can impose someone convenient to the leadership.

Bingo

[mattbewilson]

Apr 12, 2024 20:44:00 GMT edgbaston said:

Apr 12, 2024 20:07:31 GMT borisminor said:

No they haven't selected as far as I am aware. I imagine that it is getting too late to run a full selection so are deliberately waiting for the election to be called so they can impose someone convenient to the leadership.

Bingo

I've heard Hugh is keen but has no chance but we'll see

[Ports]

Not clear whether he is on the ballot but the Conservative PPC has seemingly withdrawn due to inappropriate images of minors he posted online, according to the below tweet:

[YL]

www.kirklees.gov.uk/beta/voting-and-elections/statement-of-persons-nominated.aspx

6 candidates, no Workers Party, and a late change of Tory candidate: the previous choice is on the SOPN as nomination withdrawn.

[YL]

Javed Bashir had previously been selected as a Lib Dem in Dewsbury & Batley.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Conservative candidate is Laura Evans, who was also the last minute replacement for the Greater Manchester mayoralty in May.

[hullenedge]

www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/tory-yorkshire-election-candidate-quits-29315213

[edgbaston]

“Just minutes before today's candidacy deadline, he revealed he was quitting - saying the “events were of their time and I can understand how they could be viewed differently in today’s world”’

I read this and thought I wonder what the date was, 1990? 2000? Nope 2016!!!

[Clark]

This was a good result for Labour and a good decision by Leadbeater to contest this seat as opposed to next door. The Tories won 3 out of the 6 wards here in the local elections a few months earlier. I guess Reform and their candidate issues put pay to them having a chance.

Interesting the Lib Dems took 2,823 votes in Cleckheaton ward alone at the locals but took only 1,425 in the constituency as a whole a few months later!

[Crimson King]

not dissimilar to my 2499 in Idle and Thackley comfortably exceeding the 1910 for us in all of Bradford East

[YL]

Jul 14, 2024 8:17:50 GMT Clark said:

This was a good result for Labour and a good decision by Leadbeater to contest this seat as opposed to next door. The Tories won 3 out of the 6 wards here in the local elections a few months earlier. I guess Reform and their candidate issues put pay to them having a chance.

Interesting the Lib Dems took 2,823 votes in Cleckheaton ward alone at the locals but took only 1,425 in the constituency as a whole a few months later!

Yes, a comfortable win for Labour, with the Tories actually being narrowly pushed into third by Reform UK in a seat they were notionally defending. I suppose Heavy Woollen District conservatism might be relatively prone to being tempted by Reform UK.

[Ron Swanson]

Jul 14, 2024 8:17:50 GMT Clark said:

This was a good result for Labour and a good decision by Leadbeater to contest this seat as opposed to next door. The Tories won 3 out of the 6 wards here in the local elections a few months earlier. I guess Reform and their candidate issues put pay to them having a chance.

Interesting the Lib Dems took 2,823 votes in Cleckheaton ward alone at the locals but took only 1,425 in the constituency as a whole a few months later!

It is clearly a better fit for her than Dewsbury & Batley, even if she'd stood there & won that one.

I think she'll take some shifting from here as well.

[bsjmcr]

Jul 14, 2024 21:35:29 GMT YL said:

Jul 14, 2024 8:17:50 GMT Clark said:

This was a good result for Labour and a good decision by Leadbeater to contest this seat as opposed to next door. The Tories won 3 out of the 6 wards here in the local elections a few months earlier. I guess Reform and their candidate issues put pay to them having a chance.

Interesting the Lib Dems took 2,823 votes in Cleckheaton ward alone at the locals but took only 1,425 in the constituency as a whole a few months later!

Yes, a comfortable win for Labour, with the Tories actually being narrowly pushed into third by Reform UK in a seat they were notionally defending. I suppose Heavy Woollen District conservatism might be relatively prone to being tempted by Reform UK.

Probably not helped by a serial candidate who has stood in what feels like nearly every constituency and Mayoral election on the wrong side of the Pennines (as they say) rather than a local one of the many Conservative councillors in this area. Credit where it's due though for putting her hat in the ring again I suppose. 

[Deleted]

Tories are a Spent force here, at least for now. Forget Valley. It's more of a chasm or abyss for them. Nice to see the old seat name resuscitated, however.