Post by YL on Jan 2, 2024 12:49:47 GMT
In the constituency boundary review implemented for the 1950 General Election, well over 150 constituency names disappeared. A handful of names which disappeared then have since returned, but the majority have long gone. The review implemented in 2024 restored four of those names to the constituency map after 74 years, and perhaps the most surprising of those was Spen Valley in West Yorkshire, with boundaries remarkably close to those of the constituency which disappeared in 1950. It was essentially the successor to Batley & Spen, but with Batley being replaced by the town of Mirfield, coming from the Dewsbury constituency, and the village of Kirkheaton, coming from Huddersfield. It is entirely within the Metropolitan Borough of Kirklees, of which it contains five whole wards and part of a sixth.
In spite of its contribution to parliamentary nomenclature, the Spen is not one of Yorkshire's bigger rivers: its headwaters rise in the hills south of Bradford and it flows south-eastwards through Cleckheaton, Liversedge and Heckmondwike to join the Calder between Mirfield and Dewsbury. The confluence with the Calder is not in this constituency (and never was) but Cleckheaton, Liversedge, Heckmondwike and Mirfield all are, together with Gomersal, Birstall and Birkenshaw, which are north-east of the Spen, and Kirkheaton, which is on the other side of the Calder from most of the constituency; one difference between the new constituency and the 1918-50 one is that the latter included rather more territory south of the Calder.
The local election results, discussed in more detail below, suggest that most of this constituency will vote fairly reliably Conservative and that Labour will be relying on Heckmondwike to give themselves a chance; notional results vary, but suggest that it will be a marginal constituency either close to a bellwether or with a slight Conservative lean. It is thus less of a Labour seat than its main predecessor, Batley & Spen, which has had a complicated and one on occasion tragic political history. In its first election, 1983, it was won by Elizabeth Peacock, who was the sort of maverick Conservative who can go down well in this part of the world, and she hung on until 1997; even then the swing was quite low. The new Labour MP, Mike Wood held on comfortably in 2010, giving this a reputation as being a low swing seat; he was replaced in 2015 by Jo Cox, who infamously was murdered by a far right extremist in June 2016. The resulting by-election was not contested by the major parties, and was won by Tracy Brabin, who held on in 2017 and 2019 but resigned in 2021 to become Mayor of West Yorkshire, triggering another by-election. That 2021 by-election was contested by George Galloway for his Workers' Party, getting over 20% of the vote, though within these new boundaries he probably only polled well in Heckmondwike (which there were reports that he carried, though it's not clear that they are reliable); the Labour candidate was Jo Cox's sister Kim Leadbeater, who beat the Conservative candidate by only 323 votes (possibly saving Keir Starmer's Labour leadership). Leadbeater reportedly did quite well in the remaining areas to be transferred to this new constituency, and she chose to contest this constituency in spite of the boundary changes being unhelpful for Labour. In the 2024 election she won comfortably, and although they were notionally defending the constituency the Conservatives, not helped by a last minute change of candidate, were narrowly pushed into third by Reform UK.
Much of the constituency is part of the Heavy Woollen District (see Dewsbury & Batley) and indeed many of the towns here are contiguous with the Dewsbury/Batley urban area. Birstall, in the north-east, is essentially a northern extension of Batley. Birstall is a little less deprived than Batley but still fairly working class; where it really stands out is that it is one of the white parts of the Heavy Woollen District. It shares its ward with Birkenshaw, on the other side of the M62, which is a little better off and also very white; this ward has consistently voted Conservative. The urban area also extends west from Batley to include the town of Heckmondwike, which is less white, with a high Asian Muslim population especially in its eastern parts. Heckmondwike voted for BNP councillors in 2004 and 2006, though it seems unlikely that it would have done so on its current demographics and more recently it has been consistently Labour, except in 2024 when as with many Yorkshire wards with high Muslim populations it voted for an Independent.
West of Heckmondwike and Birstall are two more wards from the current Batley & Spen constituency, Liversedge & Gomersal and Cleckheaton. These are both largely white wards on the western edge of the Heavy Woollen District, with mixed demographics which are not especially deprived but also not strongly middle class, with levels of degree level education below average. Liversedge & Gomersal usually votes Conservative, while Cleckheaton is a Liberal Democrat stronghold at council level, though presumably it is more Conservative in General Elections; both these wards also had some high BNP votes but they never won either.
South of those two wards, and on the Calder rather than the Spen, is the town of Mirfield, perhaps the most middle class part of the constituency, with the highest proportions in middle class jobs and with degrees, though even here the proportion of the latter is only around the national average. Mirfield is another Conservative voting ward in local elections, though Labour did come within 200 votes in 2023. Finally, between Mirfield and Huddersfield is the Kirkheaton area, part of the Dalton ward; most of the ward is part of Huddersfield town and remains part of Huddersfield constituency, but Kirkheaton is separate enough to have been separated from the town and was part of the previous Spen Valley as well, though it is nowhere near the Spen and quite separate from most of the constituency. It is by far the least deprived part of Dalton ward and the Labour voting habits of the ward as a whole may be a little misleading for how it votes.
Overall the demographics are not strongly middle class, and in particular education levels are quite low, but it is also not very deprived, with relatively high levels of intermediate occupations. It is much whiter than its neighbour Dewsbury & Batley, and is only 7.4% Muslim; if Heckmondwike were excluded the percentage would be much lower than that. Owner occupation is above average, but not strikingly high, and the age profile is fairly flat, unlike the very young Dewsbury & Batley.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher):
Con 21866 (46.4%)
Lab 15822 (33.5%)
Lib Dem 2755 (5.8%)
Brexit Party 1627 (3.4%)
Green 830 (1.8%)
Other 4289 (9.1%) - this is the Heavy Woollen District Independents
Con majority 6044 (12.8%)
2024 result:
Kim Leadbeater (Lab) 16076 (39.2%)
Sarah Wood (Reform UK) 9888 (24.1%)
Laura Evans (Con) 9859 (24.0%)
Martin Price (Green) 2284 (5.6%)
Javed Bashir (Independent) 1526 (3.7%)
Alison Brelsford (Lib Dem) 1425 (3.5%)
In spite of its contribution to parliamentary nomenclature, the Spen is not one of Yorkshire's bigger rivers: its headwaters rise in the hills south of Bradford and it flows south-eastwards through Cleckheaton, Liversedge and Heckmondwike to join the Calder between Mirfield and Dewsbury. The confluence with the Calder is not in this constituency (and never was) but Cleckheaton, Liversedge, Heckmondwike and Mirfield all are, together with Gomersal, Birstall and Birkenshaw, which are north-east of the Spen, and Kirkheaton, which is on the other side of the Calder from most of the constituency; one difference between the new constituency and the 1918-50 one is that the latter included rather more territory south of the Calder.
The local election results, discussed in more detail below, suggest that most of this constituency will vote fairly reliably Conservative and that Labour will be relying on Heckmondwike to give themselves a chance; notional results vary, but suggest that it will be a marginal constituency either close to a bellwether or with a slight Conservative lean. It is thus less of a Labour seat than its main predecessor, Batley & Spen, which has had a complicated and one on occasion tragic political history. In its first election, 1983, it was won by Elizabeth Peacock, who was the sort of maverick Conservative who can go down well in this part of the world, and she hung on until 1997; even then the swing was quite low. The new Labour MP, Mike Wood held on comfortably in 2010, giving this a reputation as being a low swing seat; he was replaced in 2015 by Jo Cox, who infamously was murdered by a far right extremist in June 2016. The resulting by-election was not contested by the major parties, and was won by Tracy Brabin, who held on in 2017 and 2019 but resigned in 2021 to become Mayor of West Yorkshire, triggering another by-election. That 2021 by-election was contested by George Galloway for his Workers' Party, getting over 20% of the vote, though within these new boundaries he probably only polled well in Heckmondwike (which there were reports that he carried, though it's not clear that they are reliable); the Labour candidate was Jo Cox's sister Kim Leadbeater, who beat the Conservative candidate by only 323 votes (possibly saving Keir Starmer's Labour leadership). Leadbeater reportedly did quite well in the remaining areas to be transferred to this new constituency, and she chose to contest this constituency in spite of the boundary changes being unhelpful for Labour. In the 2024 election she won comfortably, and although they were notionally defending the constituency the Conservatives, not helped by a last minute change of candidate, were narrowly pushed into third by Reform UK.
Much of the constituency is part of the Heavy Woollen District (see Dewsbury & Batley) and indeed many of the towns here are contiguous with the Dewsbury/Batley urban area. Birstall, in the north-east, is essentially a northern extension of Batley. Birstall is a little less deprived than Batley but still fairly working class; where it really stands out is that it is one of the white parts of the Heavy Woollen District. It shares its ward with Birkenshaw, on the other side of the M62, which is a little better off and also very white; this ward has consistently voted Conservative. The urban area also extends west from Batley to include the town of Heckmondwike, which is less white, with a high Asian Muslim population especially in its eastern parts. Heckmondwike voted for BNP councillors in 2004 and 2006, though it seems unlikely that it would have done so on its current demographics and more recently it has been consistently Labour, except in 2024 when as with many Yorkshire wards with high Muslim populations it voted for an Independent.
West of Heckmondwike and Birstall are two more wards from the current Batley & Spen constituency, Liversedge & Gomersal and Cleckheaton. These are both largely white wards on the western edge of the Heavy Woollen District, with mixed demographics which are not especially deprived but also not strongly middle class, with levels of degree level education below average. Liversedge & Gomersal usually votes Conservative, while Cleckheaton is a Liberal Democrat stronghold at council level, though presumably it is more Conservative in General Elections; both these wards also had some high BNP votes but they never won either.
South of those two wards, and on the Calder rather than the Spen, is the town of Mirfield, perhaps the most middle class part of the constituency, with the highest proportions in middle class jobs and with degrees, though even here the proportion of the latter is only around the national average. Mirfield is another Conservative voting ward in local elections, though Labour did come within 200 votes in 2023. Finally, between Mirfield and Huddersfield is the Kirkheaton area, part of the Dalton ward; most of the ward is part of Huddersfield town and remains part of Huddersfield constituency, but Kirkheaton is separate enough to have been separated from the town and was part of the previous Spen Valley as well, though it is nowhere near the Spen and quite separate from most of the constituency. It is by far the least deprived part of Dalton ward and the Labour voting habits of the ward as a whole may be a little misleading for how it votes.
Overall the demographics are not strongly middle class, and in particular education levels are quite low, but it is also not very deprived, with relatively high levels of intermediate occupations. It is much whiter than its neighbour Dewsbury & Batley, and is only 7.4% Muslim; if Heckmondwike were excluded the percentage would be much lower than that. Owner occupation is above average, but not strikingly high, and the age profile is fairly flat, unlike the very young Dewsbury & Batley.
2019 notional result (Rallings & Thrasher):
Con 21866 (46.4%)
Lab 15822 (33.5%)
Lib Dem 2755 (5.8%)
Brexit Party 1627 (3.4%)
Green 830 (1.8%)
Other 4289 (9.1%) - this is the Heavy Woollen District Independents
Con majority 6044 (12.8%)
2024 result:
Kim Leadbeater (Lab) 16076 (39.2%)
Sarah Wood (Reform UK) 9888 (24.1%)
Laura Evans (Con) 9859 (24.0%)
Martin Price (Green) 2284 (5.6%)
Javed Bashir (Independent) 1526 (3.7%)
Alison Brelsford (Lib Dem) 1425 (3.5%)
