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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:50:58 GMT
West Dorset
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Post by peterl on Mar 14, 2024 19:58:11 GMT
Almanac ProfileDorset Council profile if you want more details on the wards that make up the seat. Candidates so far: Chris Loder (Conservative) Edward Morello (Lib Dem) Kelvin Clayton (Green) All same as last time.
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Post by dp1811 on Mar 31, 2024 22:14:44 GMT
I live just outside of Bridport, which is either the 2nd or 3rd largest town in the constituency depending on where you count from!
I’ve lived here since 2014 and have a connection to the LD campaign through a close friend, although I am not yet involved myself. My General Election voting record here is Con in 2015 and 2017, and Lib Dem in 2019. My politics generally are left of centre but Oliver Letwin was a very good constituency MP, even when in government. He helped me with a personal issue when I first moved to Dorset so earned my vote initially. By the time 2019 rolled around, being very anti-Brexit and anti-Boris I had already decided I would vote Lib Dem - no point in trying to go any other way here. In the end Letwin was essentially deselected (jumped before he was pushed!) by the local Conservative Association, which made my decision even easier.
Now onto the present day. Our current Conservative MP is Chris Loder. Most notable perhaps for two constituents being visited by police for wanting to talk to him about sewage dumping (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-63821966), and a strange event surrounding Mr Loder declaring a species of eagle are “not welcome” in West Dorset. (https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/15/mp-eagles-not-welcome-constituency-received-funds-shooting-estate-chris-loder). More Stop the Birds than Stop the Boats, perhaps!
On a local level, I’m sorry to say that Chris is perhaps the least effective MP I’ve lived under. He always had a tough act to follow from Oliver Letwin but he certainly has not lived up to it. He seems to be rather absent from the constituency. I have never had to email him but I’ve heard from friends and neighbours that his office isn’t very good at replying to emails.
The Conservative campaign here doesn’t seem to have got going yet. I’ve had one glossy leaflet from them, which I think must’ve been delivered by Royal Mail. Most of it was the typical Tory li(n)es on sewage, trying to suggest that the current scandal is the fault of the Lib Dems and Labour. There was also a local campaign relating to fuel prices at Morrisons in Bridport. Ironically when I went to fill up a few days after receiving this leaflet, the price was up a few pennies per litre compared to the previous time I visited. Well done Chris.
We have local elections in Dorset in May and I have had some Conservative literature through for this. They seem to be trying to separate themselves from the national Tory campaign, but I can’t see it working personally.
On to the opposition. The result last time had the LDs in a clear second place (Con 55%, LD 32, Labour 9, Green 4). The Lib Dem candidate, Edward Morello, seems to be a fairly impressive chap. My Lib Dem friend gives me a pretty glowing review of his work, both professionally and as a candidate, although he is of course very biased!
I’ve had several (SEVERAL) Lib Dem leaflets through the door in the last year, and have been canvassed twice. I must admit the campaign seems pretty impressive. Either LDHQ is pumping some money in here or there are some very wealthy liberal donors in West Dorset.
From talking to friends, relatives and colleagues, it seems that the Lib Dems are doing very well here. Nationally the LDs are often tarred with the “what do you stand for” brush, and other comments about Ed Davey not being very charismatic. That doesn’t seem to be the case on the ground here. People seem to be quite excited about being able to vote for a change. Maybe I’m in an echo chamber, or maybe the prospect of the LDs winning a seat that has returned a Conservative MP at every single election since its creation in the 1880s is enough to motivate people.
The local Lib Dems also seem to boast an army of volunteers. My source within the local party has confirmed this. Apparently a year ago it was a different situation but now their door-to-door leafleting networks seem to be reaching 100% in many wards.
I’ve had nothing from Labour, the Greens, Reform or anyone else. Not really that surprising given the 2019GE result, but my ward should be a top Green target seat for the local elections this year. That being said, they don’t seem interested, and again, it’s the Lib Dems filling the gap here. I understand the Greens have more strength in Bridport and Lyme Regis, so perhaps it’s a different story there.
Currently my call is Leans Lib Dem. Not nailed on by any stretch of the imagination. Loder’s majority in 2019 was around 15,000, which is huge. Even in the current political climate that may just be too much of a mountain to climb all in one go. However, the feeling on the ground suggests to me that it may be more likely to happen than not. I know a lot of the polling supports this view.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,354
Member is Online
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Post by YL on Apr 3, 2024 17:19:16 GMT
MRPs seem to be consistently showing a Lib Dem gain here. YouGov today has LD 40%, Con 29%, Lab 14%, Reform 10%, Green 6%.
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,256
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Post by peterl on Apr 3, 2024 18:38:05 GMT
MRPs seem to be consistently showing a Lib Dem gain here. YouGov today has LD 40%, Con 29%, Lab 14%, Reform 10%, Green 6%. Those numbers would represent a pretty good scenario for everyone really, except the Tories. 10% for Reform, a saved Green deposit, even Labour doing 50% better than last time. I think this is a little too optimistic for the Lib Dems though. This seat has been Conservative every election since it was created in 1885. If it is a gain, and the LDs will have to be having a really good night for that to even be a possibility, it will be closer I think.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,543
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Post by iang on Apr 3, 2024 18:45:20 GMT
Assuming it's accurate (big if I know), but it demonstrates the impact Reform could have. If we assume virtually all of Reform's voters are former Tories, then that 10% turns it from too close to call to comfortable Lib Dem gain. Lots of assumptions there appreciated, but it makes the point
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