West Dorset

[stb12]

West Dorset

[peterl]

Almanac Profile

Dorset Council profile if you want more details on the wards that make up the seat.

Candidates so far:

Chris Loder (Conservative)
Edward Morello (Lib Dem)
Kelvin Clayton (Green)

All same as last time.

[dp1811]

I live just outside of Bridport, which is either the 2nd or 3rd largest town in the constituency depending on where you count from!

I’ve lived here since 2014 and have a connection to the LD campaign through a close friend, although I am not yet involved myself. My General Election voting record here is Con in 2015 and 2017, and Lib Dem in 2019. My politics generally are left of centre but Oliver Letwin was a very good constituency MP, even when in government. He helped me with a personal issue when I first moved to Dorset so earned my vote initially. By the time 2019 rolled around, being very anti-Brexit and anti-Boris I had already decided I would vote Lib Dem - no point in trying to go any other way here. In the end Letwin was essentially deselected (jumped before he was pushed!) by the local Conservative Association, which made my decision even easier.

Now onto the present day. Our current Conservative MP is Chris Loder. Most notable perhaps for two constituents being visited by police for wanting to talk to him about sewage dumping (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-63821966), and a strange event surrounding Mr Loder declaring a species of eagle are “not welcome” in West Dorset. (https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/15/mp-eagles-not-welcome-constituency-received-funds-shooting-estate-chris-loder). More Stop the Birds than Stop the Boats, perhaps!

On a local level, I’m sorry to say that Chris is perhaps the least effective MP I’ve lived under. He always had a tough act to follow from Oliver Letwin but he certainly has not lived up to it. He seems to be rather absent from the constituency. I have never had to email him but I’ve heard from friends and neighbours that his office isn’t very good at replying to emails.

The Conservative campaign here doesn’t seem to have got going yet. I’ve had one glossy leaflet from them, which I think must’ve been delivered by Royal Mail. Most of it was the typical Tory li(n)es on sewage, trying to suggest that the current scandal is the fault of the Lib Dems and Labour. There was also a local campaign relating to fuel prices at Morrisons in Bridport. Ironically when I went to fill up a few days after receiving this leaflet, the price was up a few pennies per litre compared to the previous time I visited. Well done Chris.

We have local elections in Dorset in May and I have had some Conservative literature through for this. They seem to be trying to separate themselves from the national Tory campaign, but I can’t see it working personally.

On to the opposition. The result last time had the LDs in a clear second place (Con 55%, LD 32, Labour 9, Green 4). The Lib Dem candidate, Edward Morello, seems to be a fairly impressive chap. My Lib Dem friend gives me a pretty glowing review of his work, both professionally and as a candidate, although he is of course very biased!

I’ve had several (SEVERAL) Lib Dem leaflets through the door in the last year, and have been canvassed twice. I must admit the campaign seems pretty impressive. Either LDHQ is pumping some money in here or there are some very wealthy liberal donors in West Dorset.

From talking to friends, relatives and colleagues, it seems that the Lib Dems are doing very well here. Nationally the LDs are often tarred with the “what do you stand for” brush, and other comments about Ed Davey not being very charismatic. That doesn’t seem to be the case on the ground here. People seem to be quite excited about being able to vote for a change. Maybe I’m in an echo chamber, or maybe the prospect of the LDs winning a seat that has returned a Conservative MP at every single election since its creation in the 1880s is enough to motivate people.

The local Lib Dems also seem to boast an army of volunteers. My source within the local party has confirmed this. Apparently a year ago it was a different situation but now their door-to-door leafleting networks seem to be reaching 100% in many wards.

I’ve had nothing from Labour, the Greens, Reform or anyone else. Not really that surprising given the 2019GE result, but my ward should be a top Green target seat for the local elections this year. That being said, they don’t seem interested, and again, it’s the Lib Dems filling the gap here. I understand the Greens have more strength in Bridport and Lyme Regis, so perhaps it’s a different story there.

Currently my call is Leans Lib Dem. Not nailed on by any stretch of the imagination. Loder’s majority in 2019 was around 15,000, which is huge. Even in the current political climate that may just be too much of a mountain to climb all in one go. However, the feeling on the ground suggests to me that it may be more likely to happen than not. I know a lot of the polling supports this view.

[YL]

MRPs seem to be consistently showing a Lib Dem gain here. YouGov today has LD 40%, Con 29%, Lab 14%, Reform 10%, Green 6%.

[peterl]

Apr 3, 2024 17:19:16 GMT YL said:

MRPs seem to be consistently showing a Lib Dem gain here. YouGov today has LD 40%, Con 29%, Lab 14%, Reform 10%, Green 6%.

Those numbers would represent a pretty good scenario for everyone really, except the Tories. 10% for Reform, a saved Green deposit, even Labour doing 50% better than last time. I think this is a little too optimistic for the Lib Dems though. This seat has been Conservative every election since it was created in 1885. If it is a gain, and the LDs will have to be having a really good night for that to even be a possibility, it will be closer I think.

[iang]

Assuming it's accurate (big if I know), but it demonstrates the impact Reform could have. If we assume virtually all of Reform's voters are former Tories, then that 10% turns it from too close to call to comfortable Lib Dem gain. Lots of assumptions there appreciated, but it makes the point

[evergreenadam]

The 2024 local election results showed the Lib Dems ahead, with a potentially squeezable Green and Labour vote as well. So seems to be all to play for.

Courtesy of @no_Offence_Alan:

West Dorset
LD 12,950
Con 8,425
Grn 4,807
Lab 2,332
IfD 1,906
Ind 264
Reform 211
No Desc

[batman]

I don't know if I'm misremembering, but have the LDs ever been that far ahead of the Tories in this constituency in local elections before? Seems like an extremely good set of results for them

[andrewp]

May 11, 2024 18:07:16 GMT batman said:

I don't know if I'm misremembering, but have the LDs ever been that far ahead of the Tories in this constituency in local elections before? Seems like an extremely good set of results for them

I don’t think so, but I suppose you’d factor in that in eg 1995 when results might have been similar 17/38 wards were uncontested so direct comparisons aren’t straightforward.

[heslingtonian]

Obviously there's national issues at play but I do wonder whether not having Letwin here is damaging the Conservatives. I appreciate he was not everyone's cup of tea but I know from family who live in this constituency that he was considered to be a diligent constituency MP plus you'd have to say he'd be well-placed at attracting some voters who may have typically voted Lib Dem. From what I've seen of his successor he appears more Red Wall than Blue Wall.

[Pete Whitehead]

May 13, 2024 18:21:45 GMT heslingtonian said:

Obviously there's national issues at play but I do wonder whether not having Letwin here is damaging the Conservatives. I appreciate he was not everyone's cup of tea but I know from family who live in this constituency that he was considered to be a diligent constituency MP plus you'd have to say he'd be well-placed at attracting some voters who may have typically voted Lib Dem. From what I've seen of his successor he appears more Red Wall than Blue Wall.

Most normal voters aren't political obsessives and would have no idea about the positioning of their local MP within their party's factional framework. I dare say it might be more relevant in a seat like this that Loder is a local man rather than being a rather odd fellow from Hampstead. In any case, Letwin was regarded as a hardcore Thatcherite when first elected. And this isn't Richmond Park or OxWAb - most of the Liberal/Lib Dem vote historically has come from the working class areas, often basically Labour supporters casting a tactical anti-Tory vote. I'm not sure they suddenly decided to vote Conservative because they were represented by an effete North London liberal.

[batman]

Indeed, Letwin voted for John Redwood (certainly) and later Iain Duncan Smith (I think but am not quite so sure) for Conservative Party leader, but as some of his other supporters did progressed away from the party Right as he went on. An acquaintance of mine of many years, Stephen, who is very right-wing indeed, surprised me greatly by calling him Oliver Leftwing even in his IDS-supporting days, but he would no doubt say he was proved right in the end. I think that it would be fair to say that compared with Stephen you're a veritable Communist Pete.

[Pete Whitehead]

I have been called a Communist once before, when I was unpersuaded by the case for privatising the Army.

[Deleted]

I agree that Letwin wouldn't help the Tories here as most voters don't care that much about individual MPs, and his reputation as a moderate is patchy. I know that the Lib Dems in the area saw his reputation as an electoral asset for them when he was a candidate, and as far as I can tell he wasn't considered a champion of local issues by many.

But as for the nature of the constituency and where the Lib Dem strength comes from: it may not be Richmond or OxWAb, but it certainly isn't Yeovil or Barnstaple either. The constituency will have been very close to 50-50 in the 2016 referendum.

The most consistent area of Lib Dem strength is Dorchester, where the Lib Dems/Liberals have had councillors since at least the 70s (Stella Jones was elected to the inaugural West Dorset council in 1973 and was re-elected to Dorset Council this year), and have dominated the town's local elections since the 90s. Dorchester has a high proportion of graduate level jobs and it is a desirable place to live for a variety of reasons. Housing ends up being very expensive, and new developments in Poundbury don't exactly have affordability as top priority (although I think it has been more of a consideration in planning than it appears at first glance). As a result, working class employees in Dorchester often live in Weymouth which tends to be cheaper, and wealthier workers in Weymouth often live in Dorchester. West Dorset DC built a lot of social housing in satellite villages of the town, for example in Crossways (which is in the South Dorset constituency) and Charminster. The end result is that Dorchester isn't particularly working class.

I suspect the same is somewhat true of Sherborne, in that it is considered more desirable than nearby Yeovil, which it has heavy economic ties to. Lib Dem support in the town has been historically patchy.

Bridport is the second most consistent area of Lib Dem strength. There are certainly working class areas of Bridport, and they constitute a large part of what might be considered 'Bridport proper', i.e. not West Bay, or Bothenhampton/Bradpole which are largely contiguous with the town but were separate parishes until this year. But it is also Dorset's closest equivalent to Totnes or Frome, and that aspect has really solidified in recent years. It also has a strong nonconformist history—probably more so than any other town in Dorset.

Lyme Regis and Charmouth are very much not working class areas, and share the arts-y vibe of Bridport. Local election results have been varied, but I suspect the Lib Dem vote in these towns are not coming from working class voters who would naturally vote Labour.

Outside of these towns, the constituency is more rural than many realise. The DT2 postcode area is the largest in England south of the Pennines. The area of the constituency is greater than all neighbouring constituencies, greater than the 6 smallest Dorset constituencies (i.e. not itself and North Dorset) combined, and greater than Honiton & Sidmouth and Yeovil combined. As mentioned with respect to Dorchester, some villages have a high amount of social housing. Few houses in the postcard village of Abbotsbury are occupied by the freehold owner: the land is mostly owned by the vast Ilchester estate with a large number of rented and leasehold properties (fun fact: blue door houses are usually rented, white doors leasehold, others usually freehold); I believe similar is true of Littlebredy and almost certainly some other Dorset villages which give off a first impression of wealthy homeowners.

tl;dr: West Dorset towns are likely more natural Lib Dem territory than it might seem, and the working class vote is somewhat spread thin over the constituency. But Oliver Letwin stopped mattering when he stood down.

[dp1811]

May 11, 2024 10:24:05 GMT evergreenadam said:

The 2024 local election results showed the Lib Dems ahead, with a potentially squeezable Green and Labour vote as well. So seems to be all to play for.

Courtesy of @no_Offence_Alan:

West Dorset
LD 12,950
Con 8,425
Grn 4,807
Lab 2,332
IfD 1,906
Ind 264
Reform 211
No Desc

The high Green vote locally here should, IMO, worry the Tories even more. The Greens had 8 target seats (across 6 wards) in West Dorset at the Dorset Council elections, yet only won 1 of them (Lyme and Charmouth). Of the other 7 seats, 6 went Lib Dem (3 already were) and 1 stayed Tory.

I would imagine that the Lib Dems will find it quite easy to squeeze that 16% Green vote for the General Election. In my experience the “Tories Out” feeling is even stronger for Westminster than it was for County Hall - and it was very strong for the locals! In some of these wards the Greens were better placed to beat the Tories, on paper at least, but at the General Election there is no doubt about who the tactical choice is.

Then add in here the fact that the Lib Dems won most of these wards with a decent chunk also voting Green (see Chesil Bank, Eggardon, Marshwood Vale), and the Tories should be very worried indeed.

[heslingtonian]

Feels like the Lib Dems could finally make it here this time.

[peterl]

I maintain a degree of skepticism given this seat has voted Conservative every election since its creation in 1885, but if the Lib Dems are ever going to take it this will be the year. There currently is no announced Reform candidate, clearly if one is selected that will split the Tory vote nicely.

[haroldthepolitician]

I'd lean towards the Liberal Democrats winning this seat but it's all to play for.

[peterl]

Candidates:

Oliver Marshall Amede Chisholm ND
Kelvin Clayton Green Party
Chris Loder The Conservative Party Candidate
Donna Lumsden Labour Party
Edward Morello Liberal Democrats
Marcus Daniel Terence White ND

So the only Dorset seat with no Reform. Oliver Chisholm I believe is ex-UKIP, no idea about Marcus White's politics. All candidates local except Labour's who lives just down the road in Dagenham and Rainham.

[iain]

Jun 7, 2024 18:47:22 GMT peterl said:

Candidates:

Oliver Marshall Amede Chisholm ND
Kelvin Clayton Green Party
Chris Loder The Conservative Party Candidate
Donna Lumsden Labour Party
Edward Morello Liberal Democrats
Marcus Daniel Terence White ND

So the only Dorset seat with no Reform. Oliver Chisholm I believe is ex-UKIP, no idea about Marcus White's politics. All candidates local except Labour's who lives just down the road in Dagenham and Rainham.

Mid Dorset also no Reform according to your post?