stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 0:48:17 GMT
Tewkesbury
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jun 7, 2024 21:48:12 GMT
Damola Animashaun Labour Party
Cate Cody The Green Party
Byron Clifford Davis Reform UK
David Nigel Edgar Christian Peoples Alliance
Laurence Anthony Robertson The Conservative Party Candidate
Cameron Thomas Liberal Democrats - For a fair deal
CPA candidate lives in Cheltenham, Reform in Gloucester, Labour Chatham and Aylesford, remainder live in Tewkesbury.
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Post by luckyllama on Jun 29, 2024 14:38:27 GMT
A possible long shot for the LDs?
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jun 29, 2024 14:47:39 GMT
A possible long shot for the LDs? Have a fiver on it. |
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Post by noorderling on Jun 29, 2024 14:54:53 GMT
A possible long shot for the LDs? Have a fiver on it. Three MRP’s have it a as a Lib Dem gain. Survation is one of them. 7 have it as a Tory hold, Savanta as a Labour gain. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 29, 2024 15:06:11 GMT
A possible long shot for the LDs? If this is a Long shot for the Lib Dems then the Tories will really Kick De Bucket. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Jun 29, 2024 15:11:38 GMT
A possible long shot for the LDs? Falsely flashed up as a Lib Dem gain on Sky News overnight coverage in (IIRC?) 2017. Got this one down as Tory hold this time in any case. |
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Post by andrewp on Jun 29, 2024 15:18:59 GMT
When I did the profile for this seat I did note that it gains about 5000 more Gloucester voters and 5000 more Cheltenham voters in the boundary changes, and becomes a bit less rural. Over time there is likely to be a sort of Mid Gloucestershire seat, based in this one but possibly without Tewkesbury itself, taking in mostly the leftovers of Gloucester and Cheltenham and which may well be an LD prospect.
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jun 29, 2024 15:24:42 GMT
I predicted this as a long shot LD gain as I said in my prediction yesterday, partly as I also had noticed the unexpectedly good performance in Tewkesbury DC during the PCC elections, especially relative to Cotswold DC.
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Post by batman on Jun 29, 2024 16:51:28 GMT
Three MRP’s have it a as a Lib Dem gain. Survation is one of them. 7 have it as a Tory hold, Savanta as a Labour gain. a Labour gain here is a LOL. I've voted for Con hold but wouldn't be astonished by a LD gain |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 29, 2024 21:09:41 GMT
A possible long shot for the LDs? It depends on how badly the Conservatives perform-many of the Liberal Democrat gains from the Conservatives in 1997 featured small decreases in the LD vote share or increases of only 1-2% notionally. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 4:44:41 GMT
LD gain. Definitely unexpected
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jul 5, 2024 7:46:01 GMT
I love it when a prediction comes together!
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2024 10:51:45 GMT
Even in a night of surprise results, this was one of *the* truly gobsmacking ones.
I know places change over time and all that, but as someone who spent their childhood years in these parts - just wow.
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jul 7, 2024 11:50:22 GMT
Even in a night of surprise results, this was one of *the* truly gobsmacking ones. I know places change over time and all that, but as someone who spent their childhood years in these parts - just wow. As I mentioned earlier I would never have thought this possible were it not for the strong LD results in the PCC elections here. Obviously whatever the cause of it was passed us all by. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 11:53:41 GMT
Even in a night of surprise results, this was one of *the* truly gobsmacking ones. I know places change over time and all that, but as someone who spent their childhood years in these parts - just wow. I thought this would be the last Conservative seat in Gloucestershire to fall. The LDs have been weak in Tewkesbury borough at local elections for a while, and most of their councillors are in North Cotswolds. I can't even begin to explain this one |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,940
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2024 12:07:08 GMT
Even in a night of surprise results, this was one of *the* truly gobsmacking ones. I know places change over time and all that, but as someone who spent their childhood years in these parts - just wow. As I mentioned earlier I would never have thought this possible were it not for the strong LD results in the PCC elections here. Obviously whatever the cause of it was passed us all by. But the district includes Brockworth and Churchdown - two strong areas for the LibDems which went into the North Cotswold seat which the Tories narrowly held (an utterly ridiculous decision that will hopefully be corrected in the next review, but that is for another day) I actually grew up in Churchdown, but literally within sight of this seat - it contains places like Innsworth, Longford and Staverton that I was pretty familiar with. |
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 605
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Post by Ports on Jul 7, 2024 12:35:12 GMT
As I mentioned earlier I would never have thought this possible were it not for the strong LD results in the PCC elections here. Obviously whatever the cause of it was passed us all by. But the district includes Brockworth and Churchdown - two strong areas for the LibDems which went into the North Cotswold seat which the Tories narrowly held (an utterly ridiculous decision that will hopefully be corrected in the next review, but that is for another day) I actually grew up in Churchdown, but literally within sight of this seat - it contains places like Innsworth, Longford and Staverton that I was pretty familiar with. That's a fair comment - but surely that is made up for by the Cheltenham portion? |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 7, 2024 12:35:52 GMT
The LibDems won here by almost the same margin as Cheltenham…
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 7, 2024 13:58:11 GMT
Even in a night of surprise results, this was one of *the* truly gobsmacking ones. I know places change over time and all that, but as someone who spent their childhood years in these parts - just wow. I thought this would be the last Conservative seat in Gloucestershire to fall. The LDs have been weak in Tewkesbury borough at local elections for a while, and most of their councillors are in North Cotswolds. I can't even begin to explain this one I do wonder if the candidates mattered a lot here. By all accounts the Lib Dem was an energetic ex military guy who would probably have been popular with disaffected Conservatives. In contrast, I always thought the hard Right Brexiteer Lancastrian Laurence Robertson was never the greatest fit for a seat such as this. He was a pretty low profile MP as well towards the end. |
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