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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 7, 2024 13:59:53 GMT
The LibDems won here by almost the same margin as Cheltenham… Swap Robertson and Chalk around and I think the Tories could have held this whereas Robertson would probably have lost Cheltenham by 15k. Candidates matter. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 14:05:15 GMT
As I mentioned earlier I would never have thought this possible were it not for the strong LD results in the PCC elections here. Obviously whatever the cause of it was passed us all by. But the district includes Brockworth and Churchdown - two strong areas for the LibDems which went into the North Cotswold seat which the Tories narrowly held (an utterly ridiculous decision that will hopefully be corrected in the next review, but that is for another day) I actually grew up in Churchdown, but literally within sight of this seat - it contains places like Innsworth, Longford and Staverton that I was pretty familiar with. I didn't know you were from Gloucestershire. I rather think that constituency was the "absolute disaster that allows everything else to be relatively coherent" one |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2024 14:10:57 GMT
I did move north from there in the summer of 1980 when I was not yet 14, so it was rather a long time ago  |
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Post by andrewp on Jul 7, 2024 14:21:47 GMT
I wrote the profile for this seat and did allude to this seat becoming more promising for the LDs, but I really didn’t think they’d win it this time.
Mrs AndrewP is from this area and her mum lived in Sandhurst, just outside Gloucester, until 2019. She is a Tory inclined voter and was much more complimentary about Richard Graham than Laurence Robertson, and it’s not hard to see why.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 7, 2024 15:22:47 GMT
Even in a night of surprise results, this was one of *the* truly gobsmacking ones. I know places change over time and all that, but as someone who spent their childhood years in these parts - just wow. I thought this would be the last Conservative seat in Gloucestershire to fall. The LDs have been weak in Tewkesbury borough at local elections for a while, and most of their councillors are in North Cotswolds. I can't even begin to explain this one I won't claim to have predicted this one but it definitely came onto my radar during the campaign for three reasons. 1. Contrary to some comments in this thread, we are very strong in the local council here. We took control TBC despite having been absolutely nowhere just a few years back, the sign of an effective local party. On the wards in the constituency we have 9 TBC councillors playing 6 Tories (4 Greens, 6 assorted Indies. The Greens were all elected in absence of a LD - anywhere we stood we finished ahead of them, except for one of them in Winchcombe, where the LD/Green vote split about equally, with theTories winning fairly comfortably and Labour slightly surprisingly the closest challengers. We also had some decent near misses where the Tories won elsewhere). To that you have to add 4 out of 6 Cheltenham BC councillors (no Tories) plus all four of the Gloucester City councillors. Frankly I'm puzzled that anyone can look at that - and the trend of election results in Tewkesbury, Gloucester City and Cheltenham over the last four years - and talk about the LDs being "weak" at local elections in this part of the world. (That actually goes for anywhere at all in Gloucestershire outside of Stroud and FoD, and bear in mind that for tactical reasons we didn't go for Gloucester - where we're also been significantly outperforming everyone else for ages - leaving Gloucester activists free to help out elsewhere. Gloucester Labour can count themselves very, very lucky to have been given a free run.) 2. heslingtonian is correct on the candidate - ex-RAF. Not merely a good fit for rural Glos, but personally a strong team leader by all I hear. 3. The first stakeboards I saw anywhere were on the A38 here. A couple of weeks later we were being asked if we had any spare since they had more sites than boards. |
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Post by batman on Jul 7, 2024 18:43:54 GMT
I thought this would be the last Conservative seat in Gloucestershire to fall. The LDs have been weak in Tewkesbury borough at local elections for a while, and most of their councillors are in North Cotswolds. I can't even begin to explain this one I do wonder if the candidates mattered a lot here. By all accounts the Lib Dem was an energetic ex military guy who would probably have been popular with disaffected Conservatives. In contrast, I always thought the hard Right Brexiteer Lancastrian Laurence Robertson was never the greatest fit for a seat such as this. He was a pretty low profile MP as well towards the end. he always came over as pretty dislikeable. His result in his first election in 1997, however, was better than some expected. |
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 7, 2024 19:23:34 GMT
I do wonder if the candidates mattered a lot here. By all accounts the Lib Dem was an energetic ex military guy who would probably have been popular with disaffected Conservatives. In contrast, I always thought the hard Right Brexiteer Lancastrian Laurence Robertson was never the greatest fit for a seat such as this. He was a pretty low profile MP as well towards the end. he always came over as pretty dislikeable. His result in his first election in 1997, however, was better than some expected. One bit of trivia is I gather Laurence Robertson defeated Theresa May for the 1997 selection here. |
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Post by Foggy on Jul 8, 2024 3:18:22 GMT
But the district includes Brockworth and Churchdown - two strong areas for the LibDems which went into the North Cotswold seat which the Tories narrowly held (an utterly ridiculous decision that will hopefully be corrected in the next review, but that is for another day) I rather think that constituency was the "absolute disaster that allows everything else to be relatively coherent" one I reluctantly accept the need for the occasional need for one of those. The BCE never explained why they thought we required two of those per county in this region though. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 9:52:29 GMT
I rather think that constituency was the "absolute disaster that allows everything else to be relatively coherent" one I reluctantly accept the need for the occasional need for one of those. The BCE never explained why they thought we required two of those per county in this region though. I assume you're counting Tewkesbury as the second one? In fairness there probably wasn't a lot else they could do |
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Post by Foggy on Jul 8, 2024 16:23:51 GMT
I reluctantly accept the need for the occasional need for one of those. The BCE never explained why they thought we required two of those per county in this region though. I assume you're counting Tewkesbury as the second one? In fairness there probably wasn't a lot else they could do Yeah, the northern half of Gloucestershire was always going to be difficult as long as Commissioners respected the regional boundary, but I was thinking more how the SW proposals in general were clearly done on the back of a envelope in about three quarters of an hour and then the two subsequent phases of the Review made far too few changes to those inadequate recommendations. But oh well, what's done is done and hopefully we can start to course correct in 2029 when the next Review is due to start. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2024 16:40:21 GMT
I assume you're counting Tewkesbury as the second one? In fairness there probably wasn't a lot else they could do Yeah, the northern half of Gloucestershire was always going to be difficult as long as Commissioners respected the regional boundary, but I was thinking more how the SW proposals in general were clearly done on the back of a envelope in about three quarters of an hour and then the two subsequent phases of the Review made far too few changes to those inadequate recommendations. But oh well, what's done is done and hopefully we can start to course correct in 2029 when the next Review is due to start. Our boundaries in Gloucestershire are probably as good as they could be under the current rules. Gloucester+Cheltenham+suburbs in between doesn't quite add up to three seats which is really annoying |
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Post by steve on Jul 8, 2024 16:44:53 GMT
Even in a night of surprise results, this was one of *the* truly gobsmacking ones. I know places change over time and all that, but as someone who spent their childhood years in these parts - just wow. I thought this would be the last Conservative seat in Gloucestershire to fall. The LDs have been weak in Tewkesbury borough at local elections for a while, and most of their councillors are in North Cotswolds. I can't even begin to explain this one The Lib Dems actually hold the majority of the council seats in the new constituency despite the absence of their Churchdown stronghold. Cheltenham BC: Prestbury (1×PABAG, 1×Green), Springbank (2×LD), Swindon Village (2×LD) Gloucester CC: Elmbridge (2×LD), Longlevens (3×LD) Tewkesbury BC: Cleve Grange (1×LD), Cleve Hill (2×LD), Cleve St Michael's (2×LD), Cleve West (2×LD), Innsworth (2×LD), Isbourne (1×Ind, 1×Con), Northway (1×Ind, 1×Con), Severn Vale North (1×Con), Severn Vale South (1×Con), Tewkesbury East (2×Green), Tewkesbury North & Twyning (2×Ind), Tewkesbury South (2×Green), Winchcombe (2×Con, 1×Ind) Lib Dems - 18 Con - 6 Ind - 6 Green - 5 |
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Post by greenhert on Jul 9, 2024 17:54:27 GMT
This is the first time Tewkesbury, counting Cirencester & Tewkesbury, has been represented by a non-Conservative MP since 1885, just like West Dorset.
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