Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 0:16:34 GMT
I'd be interested to know exactly where that leaflet has gone. Not too many likely reform areas in this seat (though recently removed Wotton has turned out to be a small hotbed)
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Post by mellowyellow on Jun 27, 2024 1:25:57 GMT
I'd be interested to know exactly where that leaflet has gone. Not too many likely reform areas in this seat (though recently removed Wotton has turned out to be a small hotbed) I couldn't tell you exactly where. The one I saw was addressed to a voter in Cricklade. I joined in a spot of canvassing in the far west of this new constituency today. What I was very surprised by was how the recent local election vote in that ward (83% LD) is carrying to GE intention. That has never happened here before. It wasn't a case of, 'we've vote local for one, national for another.' It was a case of 'yeah, we're repeating our local vote nationally.' That's the holy grail if you're trying to challenge at Parliamentary level. Each household repeated back the message of - it's a two horse race. That tells me the that the 100,000 LD leaflets they receive each day is working. Having canvassed for two different parties in my life, and for one national campaign, I recognise 'repeating back the message' as the Gold Standard in a path to victory. From my limited exposure, it looks like LDs might actually be in with a shot here. Which is remarkable. As an aside, the LD canvass app, which is really rather clever, drinks much more juice than boiling a kettle under the Pacific Ocean - from 100% to dead in 45 minutes! |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 27, 2024 1:32:46 GMT
stb12 the poll says "Make your prediction for Chippenham" but this is the South Cotswolds thread! May need fixing.
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Post by mellowyellow on Jun 27, 2024 1:38:12 GMT
stb12 the poll says "Make your prediction for Chippenham" but this is the South Cotswolds thread! May need fixing. They may end up with the same result! |
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stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Jun 27, 2024 7:29:10 GMT
stb12 the poll says "Make your prediction for Chippenham" but this is the South Cotswolds thread! May need fixing. I might delete and re-add but I believe the options are the right ones? So we can still get the picture  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 8:42:22 GMT
I'd be interested to know exactly where that leaflet has gone. Not too many likely reform areas in this seat (though recently removed Wotton has turned out to be a small hotbed) I couldn't tell you exactly where. The one I saw was addressed to a voter in Cricklade. I joined in a spot of canvassing in the far west of this new constituency today. What I was very surprised by was how the recent local election vote in that ward (83% LD) is carrying to GE intention. That has never happened here before. It wasn't a case of, 'we've vote local for one, national for another.' It was a case of 'yeah, we're repeating our local vote nationally.' That's the holy grail if you're trying to challenge at Parliamentary level. Each household repeated back the message of - it's a two horse race. That tells me the that the 100,000 LD leaflets they receive each day is working. Having canvassed for two different parties in my life, and for one national campaign, I recognise 'repeating back the message' as the Gold Standard in a path to victory. From my limited exposure, it looks like LDs might actually be in with a shot here. Which is remarkable. As an aside, the LD canvass app, which is really rather clever, drinks much more juice than boiling a kettle under the Pacific Ocean - from 100% to dead in 45 minutes! Bloody hell! If Wotton had gone into that constituency you'd be even safer, though the people we've spoken to certainly like being back in Stroud, and we're quite glad to have them as well. A non-Tory MP in Cotswolds is almost unthinkable, or would have been a year ago |
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Jun 27, 2024 8:46:21 GMT
I agree with what mellowyellow says about our canvass ap (Minivan) eating your data! |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jun 27, 2024 11:06:09 GMT
As part of doing a seat by seat for the prediction competition, previously I had been estimating these slightly stretchier Lib Dem targets to stay blue, partly because I didn't feel the Lib Dem campaigns in them actually had the legs to pull them over the line, but even though it's one anecdote there's enough in there to make me wonder if that's right. In Wiltshire for example I was only predicting Chippenham to switch and the rest of the Lib Dem targets to stay blue.There will obviously be seats where much less of the local election vote translates into general election vote but I can account for that manually.
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Post by redtony on Jul 3, 2024 19:48:33 GMT
all of wiltshire will go LD Swindon to go Labour
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jul 4, 2024 2:10:32 GMT
all of wiltshire will go LD Swindon to go Labour I doubt all of it will, I think one or two will stay Tory. |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 4, 2024 6:12:41 GMT
I also think if the Conservatives lost South West Wiltshire that would be to Labour and not the Tories. I think they'll hold at fewest 2 in Wiltshire and closer to 4.
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jul 4, 2024 6:26:19 GMT
I also think if the Conservatives lost South West Wiltshire that would be to Labour and not the Tories. I think they'll hold at fewest 2 in Wiltshire and closer to 4.
The fact that the Conservatives are a different party to the Tories goes a long way to helping me fathom what is happening this general election.
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 4, 2024 6:27:32 GMT
I also think if the Conservatives lost South West Wiltshire that would be to Labour and not the Tories. I think they'll hold at fewest 2 in Wiltshire and closer to 4.
The fact that the Conservatives are a different party to the Tories goes a long way to helping me fathom what is happening this general election.
Oops! Of course, I meant the Lib Dems 😛 |
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Post by froome on Jul 4, 2024 6:45:12 GMT
For the 7 and a half Wiltshire constituencies I expect:
South Cotswolds - LibDem
Swindon N & S - both Labour
Chippenham - Lib Dem
Melksham & Devizes - Lib Dem
S.W. Wiltshire - probably Labour
East Wiltshire - Conservative
Salisbury - probably Conservative
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Post by batman on Jul 4, 2024 6:49:40 GMT
I'm going for Labour wins in both Swindon seats, Lib Dem in Chippenham & Tories to hold the rest
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 4, 2024 7:47:32 GMT
I also think if the Conservatives lost South West Wiltshire that would be to Labour and not the Tories. I think they'll hold at fewest 2 in Wiltshire and closer to 4. My goodness, you have a Tory contesting a Conservative seat? I wish I had that opportunity here in Sheffield. |
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Post by noorderling on Jul 4, 2024 7:55:05 GMT
I'm going for Labour wins in both Swindon seats, Lib Dem in Chippenham & Tories to hold the rest Skye claimed yesterday that the Lib Dems are ahead several percentpoints in Melksham & Devizes. |
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steve
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Post by steve on Jul 4, 2024 8:24:47 GMT
The fact that the Conservatives are a different party to the Tories goes a long way to helping me fathom what is happening this general election.
Oops! Of course, I meant the Lib Dems 😛 Which begs the question do you think the Whig candidate will have any impact on the Lib Dems vote? |
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Post by swindonlad on Jul 4, 2024 19:21:16 GMT
I'm going for Labour wins in both Swindon seats, Lib Dem in Chippenham & Tories to hold the rest This is what I'm hoping for, anything better than this would be amazing. South Cotswolds is the next most likely, but still expect it to be a Tory hold. |
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Post by froome on Jul 4, 2024 19:26:30 GMT
I'm going for Labour wins in both Swindon seats, Lib Dem in Chippenham & Tories to hold the rest This is what I'm hoping for, anything better than this would be amazing. South Cotswolds is the next most likely, but still expect it to be a Tory hold. I've read on another forum today that East Wiltshire may not be that reliable for the Conservatives, which if true would be remarkable. I would have thought it would be their safest seat in the whole region. |
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