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Post by matureleft on Jun 16, 2024 7:22:19 GMT
Bottomley has a reputation in the 1990s among Eltham activists of being rather lazy about campaigning and attending to the local party. This may affect the voter ID and things such as leafletting networks. For seats like this that doesn't matter, until it does. He’s also 79. Admittedly on the other side of the pond that’s seen as no barrier, but he really can’t be as active as all that. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 7:23:34 GMT
Bottomley has a reputation in the 1990s among Eltham activists of being rather lazy about campaigning and attending to the local party. This may affect the voter ID and things such as leafletting networks. For seats like this that doesn't matter, until it does. He’s also 79. Admittedly on the other side of the pond that’s seen as no barrier, but he really can’t be as active as all that. There was a time when Worthing's retirement community vibes (it was an elephant's graveyard before and after the world wars along with Brighton and Hove, IIRC) meant his age would have helped him relate to voters here. However, that's less relevant when the area is more 'greater Brighton', with all that entails, these days. LAB 45% CON 36% LD 10% REF 8% OTH 1% If Reform weren't standing, I'd have this as a toss-up. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 16, 2024 9:58:51 GMT
Bottomley has a reputation in the 1990s among Eltham activists of being rather lazy about campaigning and attending to the local party. This may affect the voter ID and things such as leafletting networks. For seats like this that doesn't matter, until it does. Bottomley is actually quite popular in the constituency because he is assiduous about attending fetes, carnivals, charity events, etc. But the popularity is fairly shallow. He also has a reputation, even within his own party, for turning up late to everything and leaving early - once he was sure he was in the publicity photos. He's done three of those this weekend already, including getting my wife in his social media photo of the Tarring fete. |
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Post by batman on Jun 16, 2024 10:22:42 GMT
It's not that easy to dislike Peter Bottomley compared with some of his colleagues. I think Labour wins this as a party not because Bottomley is particularly unpopular. As you say however there will be a fairly limited number of voters who are totally enthusiastic about his record as a local MP even if he is not really widely disliked in terms of his personality.
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jun 16, 2024 10:43:39 GMT
I remember buying the book 'The voter's guide to The General Election' by SJ Archibald & TJ Davies prior to the 1997 vote and Worthing West was Labour's 2nd most distant target notionally in the Home Counties South area requiring a 26.5% swing to win but of course, the Lib Dems were the 'challengers' then. Incredible how some areas change demographically.
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Post by batman on Jun 16, 2024 10:48:11 GMT
It really doesn't physically look like a potentially Labour seat except a few pockets in Worthing Central (perhaps the most), Heene & Marine wards. The areas of Marine close to the sea look like standard-issue Tory retirement territory and to some extent they still are.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 16, 2024 10:55:04 GMT
I remember buying the book 'The voter's guide to The General Election' by SJ Archibald & TJ Davies prior to the 1997 vote and Worthing West was Labour's 2nd most distant target notionally in the Home Counties South area requiring a 26.5% to win but of course, the Lib Dems were the 'challengers' then. Incredible how some areas change demographically. It's not necessarily demography, sometimes is is simply politically. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 12:18:16 GMT
It really doesn't physically look like a potentially Labour seat except a few pockets in Worthing Central (perhaps the most), Heene & Marine wards. The areas of Marine close to the sea look like standard-issue Tory retirement territory and to some extent they still are. What does 'look like a potentially Labour seat' mean in 2024, of all years? A question, not a criticism. |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jun 16, 2024 15:15:26 GMT
Whenever I see the name of Worthing mentioned, two words come into my mind:
A handbag?!
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 15:18:27 GMT
Worthing is actually a portmanteau of 'Worth' and 'targeting' (for the Labour Party, anyway).
95% of respondents think Peter Bottomley is going down to defeat. That's quite something.
It can't just be my ramping Labour's chance in this simply sublime slice of Sussex seaside.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 16, 2024 15:26:39 GMT
Worthing is actually a portmanteau of 'Worth' and 'targeting' (for the Labour Party, anyway). 95% of respondents think Peter Bottomley is going down to defeat. That's quite something. It can't just be my ramping Labour's chance in this simply sublime slice of Sussex seaside. The idea of Peter Bottomley being defeated reminds me of the defeat of Marcus Fox in Shipley in 1997, albeit that he was the Chairman of the 1922 Committee rather than the Father of the House. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2024 15:30:05 GMT
Worthing is actually a portmanteau of 'Worth' and 'targeting' (for the Labour Party, anyway). 95% of respondents think Peter Bottomley is going down to defeat. That's quite something. It can't just be my ramping Labour's chance in this simply sublime slice of Sussex seaside. The idea of Peter Bottomley being defeated reminds me of the defeat of Marcus Fox in Shipley in 1997, albeit that he was the Chairman of the 1922 Committee rather than the Father of the House. Voters look likely to give him the Bum(ley)'s rush. |
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Post by noorderling on Jun 16, 2024 16:11:55 GMT
Worthing is actually a portmanteau of 'Worth' and 'targeting' (for the Labour Party, anyway). 95% of respondents think Peter Bottomley is going down to defeat. That's quite something. It can't just be my ramping Labour's chance in this simply sublime slice of Sussex seaside. The idea of Peter Bottomley being defeated reminds me of the defeat of Marcus Fox in Shipley in 1997, albeit that he was the Chairman of the 1922 Committee rather than the Father of the House. But his defeat was totally unexpected, while Labour winning Worthing West would be in line with the results in the local elections. |
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Clark
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Post by Clark on Jun 16, 2024 18:49:13 GMT
Labour still need a swing over just over 13% to take this seat and Bottomley is bound to have a personal vote after 28 years. The Tories remain very strong in the Arun area and pockets of Worthing too I'm sure - this is still a big ask for Labour.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 16, 2024 18:55:50 GMT
Perhaps, but sometimes if an MP has been around for a very long time and are over a certain age, that personal vote turns negative even if views of the MP in question don't. Happened to Dennis Skinner, though Bottomley is a lot younger and in better health.
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Post by batman on Jun 16, 2024 19:54:43 GMT
It really doesn't physically look like a potentially Labour seat except a few pockets in Worthing Central (perhaps the most), Heene & Marine wards. The areas of Marine close to the sea look like standard-issue Tory retirement territory and to some extent they still are. What does 'look like a potentially Labour seat' mean in 2024, of all years? A question, not a criticism. I mean one which has some not too inconsequential council estates, has a fair amount of private rented accommodation of not necessarily overly high quality, and some humbler terraced housing, or a combination of one or two of these. Maybe multi-occupation too. Worthing West does have some examples of all of them, but has a number of wards which have interwar detached & large semi-detached houses of very high quality, privately built in tree-lined roads, in considerable profusion and lacking obviously humbler areas. Even away from the sea a lot of Marine ward, for example, is very good residential territory. Yes in 2024 some seats which are almost devoid of such areas may be won by Labour, but most of us know what a Labour seat traditionally tends to look like. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jun 16, 2024 20:02:13 GMT
What does 'look like a potentially Labour seat' mean in 2024, of all years? A question, not a criticism. I mean one which has some not too inconsequential council estates, has a fair amount of private rented accommodation of not necessarily overly high quality, and some humbler terraced housing, or a combination of one or two of these. Maybe multi-occupation too. Worthing West does have some examples of all of them, but has a number of wards which have interwar detached & large semi-detached houses of very high quality, privately built in tree-lined roads, in considerable profusion and lacking obviously humbler areas. Even away from the sea a lot of Marine ward, for example, is very good residential territory. Yes in 2024 some seats which are almost devoid of such areas may be won by Labour, but most of us know what a Labour seat traditionally tends to look like. Very good description. I will say that the northern part of Marine ward, similarly to Heene, was very fertile territory for Green support in the latter part of my active time, of the sort that's very convertible into Labour support. |
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Post by batman on Jun 16, 2024 21:09:11 GMT
Yes Heene has some very nice semi-detached roads too, especially close to & at the border with Marine. I went canvassing there for the first time & walked down the road which I gather is the ward boundary, from the railway station. I gather Heene gets less well-to-do the further east you go, but to tell the truth I haven't been to that part of Worthing.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 17, 2024 8:36:02 GMT
Perhaps, but sometimes if an MP has been around for a very long time and are over a certain age, that personal vote turns negative even if views of the MP in question don't. Happened to Dennis Skinner, though Bottomley is a lot younger and in better health. I think Skinner was a more extreme example of being stuck in the past. He refused to use email and seemed to see a return of industries that clearly weren't coming back as the answer to Bolsover's woes. Bottomley on the other hand doesn't seem less with the times than an average Conservative MP and has even been somewhat progressive on certain issues in a way few other Conservative MPs have been, e.g. on Votes at 16. |
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Post by batman on Jun 17, 2024 8:52:39 GMT
Bottomley has often supported causes which are very unusual in the Conservative Party, e.g. guerillas fighting against military régimes in Latin America, the left-wing democratic opposition Mujahedin Khalq in Iran.
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