Witney

[stb12]

Witney

[gerrardwinstanley]

I’ve been staying in the seat the last few days (in the Vale part), and, so far, the only signage I’ve seen is Liberal Democrat. What do we think of their chances here? This is another seat with a somewhat split Tory opposition, with the town of Witney itself leaning Labour, whereas the surrounding countryside leans more-so LibDem.

Water pollution is a big issue here; the once-beautiful river Windrush, a tributary of the Thames, has experienced some of the worst sewage dumping in the country.

[batman]

Jun 1, 2024 9:26:17 GMT gerrardwinstanley said:

I’ve been staying in the seat the last few days (in the Vale part), and, so far, the only signage I’ve seen is Liberal Democrat. What do we think of their chances here? This is another seat with a somewhat split Tory opposition, with the town of Witney itself leaning Labour, whereas the surrounding countryside leans more-so LibDem.

Water pollution is a big issue here; the once-beautiful river Windrush, a tributary of the Thames, has experienced some of the worst sewage dumping in the country.

very remote but not totally nonexistent I’d say.

[Deleted]

I campaigned for the Tories here in 2016 (probably why the Lib Dems did as well as they did). I think the LDs have a shout here, but this is one the Tories likely keep with c40% due to split opposition. I think Chipping Norton and Witney town will probably keep enough of a Labour vote that the Lib Dems will come up short. If you can, visit the Wild Rabbit pub in Kingham (nestled in the seat's far west). The Lib Dems are highly active here and in Henley, but Wantage seems their best target based on 2019 results.

[iainbhx]

Jun 1, 2024 10:19:10 GMT @weld said:

I campaigned for the Tories here in 2016 (probably why the Lib Dems did as well as they did). I think the LDs have a shout here, but this is one the Tories likely keep with c40% due to split opposition. I think Chipping Norton and Witney town will probably keep enough of a Labour vote that the Lib Dems will come up short. If you can, visit the Wild Rabbit pub in Kingham (nestled in the seat's far west). The Lib Dems are highly active here and in Henley, but Wantage seems their best target based on 2019 results.

Chipping Norton is in Banbury CC from this election.

[gerrardwinstanley]

Jun 1, 2024 10:19:10 GMT @weld said:

I campaigned for the Tories here in 2016 (probably why the Lib Dems did as well as they did). I think the LDs have a shout here, but this is one the Tories likely keep with c40% due to split opposition. I think Chipping Norton and Witney town will probably keep enough of a Labour vote that the Lib Dems will come up short. If you can, visit the Wild Rabbit pub in Kingham (nestled in the seat's far west). The Lib Dems are highly active here and in Henley, but Wantage seems their best target based on 2019 results.

Chipping Norton and the northern parts of the seat (including Kingham and Cameron's home village) have been moved into the Banbury seat. I grew up in the part of the Vale of White Horse that has been incorporated into this seat, where LibDem support is significant, hence why I think they are now the main challengers. 

[John Chanin]

Jun 1, 2024 9:26:17 GMT gerrardwinstanley said:

I’ve been staying in the seat the last few days (in the Vale part), and, so far, the only signage I’ve seen is Liberal Democrat. What do we think of their chances here? This is another seat with a somewhat split Tory opposition, with the town of Witney itself leaning Labour, whereas the surrounding countryside leans more-so LibDem.

Water pollution is a big issue here; the once-beautiful river Windrush, a tributary of the Thames, has experienced some of the worst sewage dumping in the country.

The Liberal Democrats have limited resources, and a low base of committed supporters.  They can only win seats by accumulating negative (tactical) votes against the incumbent, and that accumulation is only possible by a very active campaign that convinces people they are in with a chance.  Going back to the limited resources, this means targetting a small number of seats.

Oxfordshire is fertile ground for the Liberal Democrats, and they already have a seat here.  But they will not retain it by default, and will need to expend time and money defending it.  My view is that they will only be able to seriously target one other Oxfordshire seat.  This will not be Witney.  It will be either Didcot & Wantage, which looks good on paper, but where Labour resurgence is a risk, or Henley & Thame, where there is no Labour presence, but the Conservatives are stronger.  If the Liberals split their resources between these two, and also Witney and Bicester, then they certainly won't be winning any of them.

[gerrardwinstanley]

Jun 1, 2024 10:37:30 GMT John Chanin said:

Jun 1, 2024 9:26:17 GMT gerrardwinstanley said:

I’ve been staying in the seat the last few days (in the Vale part), and, so far, the only signage I’ve seen is Liberal Democrat. What do we think of their chances here? This is another seat with a somewhat split Tory opposition, with the town of Witney itself leaning Labour, whereas the surrounding countryside leans more-so LibDem.

Water pollution is a big issue here; the once-beautiful river Windrush, a tributary of the Thames, has experienced some of the worst sewage dumping in the country.

The Liberal Democrats have limited resources, and a low base of committed supporters.  They can only win seats by accumulating negative (tactical) votes against the incumbent, and that accumulation is only possible by a very active campaign that convinces people they are in with a chance.  Going back to the limited resources, this means targetting a small number of seats.

Oxfordshire is fertile ground for the Liberal Democrats, and they already have a seat here.  But they will not retain it by default, and will need to expend time and money defending it.  My view is that they will only be able to seriously target one other Oxfordshire seat.  This will not be Witney.  It will be either Didcot & Wantage, which looks good on paper, but where Labour resurgence is a risk, or Henley & Thame, where there is no Labour presence, but the Conservatives are stronger.  If the Liberals split their resources between these two, and also Witney and Bicester, then they certainly won't be winning any of them.

Boundary changes and the polls suggest that the LibDems don't need to work hard at all to keep Oxford West and Abingdon - I can't see that going Tory again for a very long time. That said, I agree regarding split resources, and Didcot and Wantage is probably their best bet; the new (and huge) housing estates around Harwell and Grove voted strongly LibDem at the last district elections.

[islington]

Jun 1, 2024 10:47:12 GMT gerrardwinstanley said:

Jun 1, 2024 10:37:30 GMT John Chanin said:

The Liberal Democrats have limited resources, and a low base of committed supporters.  They can only win seats by accumulating negative (tactical) votes against the incumbent, and that accumulation is only possible by a very active campaign that convinces people they are in with a chance.  Going back to the limited resources, this means targetting a small number of seats.

Oxfordshire is fertile ground for the Liberal Democrats, and they already have a seat here.  But they will not retain it by default, and will need to expend time and money defending it.  My view is that they will only be able to seriously target one other Oxfordshire seat.  This will not be Witney.  It will be either Didcot & Wantage, which looks good on paper, but where Labour resurgence is a risk, or Henley & Thame, where there is no Labour presence, but the Conservatives are stronger.  If the Liberals split their resources between these two, and also Witney and Bicester, then they certainly won't be winning any of them.

Boundary changes and the polls suggest that the LibDems don't need to work hard at all to keep Oxford West and Abingdon - I can't see that going Tory again for a very long time. That said, I agree regarding split resources, and Didcot and Wantage is probably their best bet; the new (and huge) housing estates around Harwell and Grove voted strongly LibDem at the last district elections.

The last point is potentially ironic because if the Lib Dems ran true to their usual form they will have campaigned tirelessly against those estates' being built.

Did they? Can anyone enlighten?

[batman]

I doubt there's even any need to check. They are bound to have done.

[carolus]

There were some non-trivial LD results in the Witney wards in May (the first in some time, I think), and in principle you'd think this is a constituency that could become winnable in due course.

But all of B&W, D&W, H&T have smaller notional majorities to overturn, and there are other seats in the wider region as well. So I'd be surprised if this one went anywhere unless the Tories are facing total annihilation.

[sonofkrautrock]

There’s an independent candidate, Barry Ingleton, lives in Carterton and founded a mental health charity.

[heslingtonian]

Not sure I really understand this whole - Lib Dems must target their resources on one seat in Oxfordshire- argument. They have considerably more councillors and probably local activists than the Conservatives in most of Oxfordshire.

[heslingtonian]

My money is on Labour to gain Banbury, the Lib Dems to gain Henley & Thame and Didcot & Wantage and the Conservatives to narrowly hold Witney and Bicester & Woodstock.

[Sg1]

Jun 1, 2024 15:12:12 GMT heslingtonian said:

Not sure I really understand this whole - Lib Dems must target their resources on one seat in Oxfordshire- argument. They have considerably more councillors and probably local activists than the Conservatives in most of Oxfordshire.

They do seem to have a strong activist base, but perhaps they want to target one seat to ensure they don't lose two target seats narrowly.

[Strontium Dog]

Jun 1, 2024 10:52:55 GMT islington said:

The last point is potentially ironic because if the Lib Dems ran true to their usual form they will have campaigned tirelessly against those estates' being built.

Did they? Can anyone enlighten?

Jun 1, 2024 10:58:23 GMT batman said:

I doubt there's even any need to check. They are bound to have done.

They didn't.

Happy to help.

[YL]

YouGov's headline figures have this as the only Tory seat in Oxfordshire.

[sonofkrautrock]

Labour candidate Georgia Meadows has stood down.

[right]

Jun 4, 2024 13:23:01 GMT sonofkrautrock said:

Labour candidate Georgia Meadows has stood down.

[iain]

www.westoxon.gov.uk/media/0vvnyyxw/spn-nop-witney.pdf

7 candidates: main 5, Heritage, Independent