Witney

[Deleted]

CON 42%
LDEM 42%
LAB 10%
REF 3%
GRN 2%
OTH 1%

Lack of EU CAP money had probably hit the rural areas here. Robert Courts has built a profile here and even in 2016, after the referendum vote, the Lib Dems with a solid candidate didn’t get all that close here. Can we a poll for this seat AdminSTB ?

[batman]

I've voted for Con hold here. I think that the anti-Tory vote will be more split than you suggest and that the Lib Dems will be mostly occupied in nearby seats. Plus some of the most Tory parts are perhaps even more Tory than in the rest of the county.

[stb12]

If this is a serious Lib Dem target, then you have talk of them gaining Maidenhead and Labour are obviously looking at Uxbridge, that’s the prospect of three former Prime Ministers’ seats falling and all three of them were in office within in the last decade

That would be quite notable

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2024 11:41:56 GMT stb12 said:

If this is a serious Lib Dem target, then you have talk of them gaining Maidenhead and Labour are obviously looking at Uxbridge, that’s the prospect of three former Prime Ministers’ seats falling and all three of them were in office within in the last decade

That would be quite notable

Yes, that would be totemic for Ed Davey because it would vindicate his 'blue wall' strategy and stunts. 

For Labour, well, the last time they won Uxbridge was before the 1966 World Cup! 

[steve]

Jun 17, 2024 11:41:56 GMT stb12 said:

If this is a serious Lib Dem target, then you have talk of them gaining Maidenhead and Labour are obviously looking at Uxbridge, that’s the prospect of three former Prime Ministers’ seats falling and all three of them were in office within in the last decade

That would be quite notable

Huntingdon isn't safe either if you look back a little further.

[nyx]

Jun 17, 2024 22:53:08 GMT steve said:

Jun 17, 2024 11:41:56 GMT stb12 said:

If this is a serious Lib Dem target, then you have talk of them gaining Maidenhead and Labour are obviously looking at Uxbridge, that’s the prospect of three former Prime Ministers’ seats falling and all three of them were in office within in the last decade

That would be quite notable

Huntingdon isn't safe either if you look back a little further.

It's at risk to Labour rather than the Lib Dems though.

[steve]

Jun 17, 2024 23:04:53 GMT nyx said:

Jun 17, 2024 22:53:08 GMT steve said:

Huntingdon isn't safe either if you look back a little further.

It's at risk to Labour rather than the Lib Dems though.

I didn't say that it wasn't.

[Deleted]

Jun 17, 2024 22:53:08 GMT steve said:

Jun 17, 2024 11:41:56 GMT stb12 said:

If this is a serious Lib Dem target, then you have talk of them gaining Maidenhead and Labour are obviously looking at Uxbridge, that’s the prospect of three former Prime Ministers’ seats falling and all three of them were in office within in the last decade

That would be quite notable

Huntingdon isn't safe either if you look back a little further.

There's house building galore in that neck of the woods. I think that (long-term) the (current) Tory party are getting built out of Huntingdon, St Neots & Mid Cambs, and South Cambs because of the Cambridge effect. House prices increased by 500% in Cambridge from 1995 to 2020, IIRC. Djanogly was also a cunt, IMO.

[batman]

Jun 18, 2024 4:24:56 GMT @weld said:

Jun 17, 2024 22:53:08 GMT steve said:

Huntingdon isn't safe either if you look back a little further.

There's house building galore in that neck of the woods. I think that (long-term) the (current) Tory party are getting built out of Huntingdon, St Neots & Mid Cambs, and South Cambs because of the Cambridge effect. House prices increased by 500% in Cambridge from 1995 to 2020, IIRC. Djanogly was also a cunt, IMO.

if that is the case, presumably he still is

[Deleted]

Jun 18, 2024 5:24:00 GMT batman said:

Jun 18, 2024 4:24:56 GMT @weld said:

There's house building galore in that neck of the woods. I think that (long-term) the (current) Tory party are getting built out of Huntingdon, St Neots & Mid Cambs, and South Cambs because of the Cambridge effect. House prices increased by 500% in Cambridge from 1995 to 2020, IIRC. Djanogly was also a cunt, IMO.

if that is the case, presumably he still is

Yep, look up 'Tory twat' in the dictionary and you should find him. What a downgrade from John Major! 

[steve]

Jun 17, 2024 11:34:36 GMT batman said:

I've voted for Con hold here. I think that the anti-Tory vote will be more split than you suggest and that the Lib Dems will be mostly occupied in nearby seats. Plus some of the most Tory parts are perhaps even more Tory than in the rest of the county.

I agree. There were signs that the Lib Dems were starting to make some inroads into Witney town in May but much too little too late and other priorities will allow the Cons to hang in here.

[nyx]

Jun 18, 2024 4:24:56 GMT @weld said:

Jun 17, 2024 22:53:08 GMT steve said:

Huntingdon isn't safe either if you look back a little further.

There's house building galore in that neck of the woods. I think that (long-term) the (current) Tory party are getting built out of Huntingdon, St Neots & Mid Cambs, and South Cambs because of the Cambridge effect. House prices increased by 500% in Cambridge from 1995 to 2020, IIRC. Djanogly was also a cunt, IMO.

Same with the misleadingly-named "North West Cambridgeshire" (should be Peterborough South). That's got a lot of new development and could feasibly flip, albeit the Tories have held up a bit better in Peterborough so far so it's not certain.

[Ports]

Jun 18, 2024 7:13:03 GMT steve said:

There were signs that the Lib Dems were starting to make some inroads into Witney town in May but much too little too late and other priorities will allow the Cons to hang in here.

And Witney town is now a marginally bigger proportion of the seat. After the boundary change it simply might be that areas from this seat moved to others (higher priorities for Labour and the Lib Dems) help them change hands, but keep this seat blue. So I've voted Con hold too.

[sonofkrautrock]

Sunak and Cameron visiting Morrisons in Carterton.

[cogload]

[sirnorfolkpassmore]

Jul 2, 2024 7:29:03 GMT sonofkrautrock said:

Sunak and Cameron visiting Morrisons in Carterton.

Could you ask them to pick up a pint of milk and some bog roll for me, as I appear to be out of both? Thanks.

[steve]

Jul 2, 2024 7:46:13 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

Jul 2, 2024 7:29:03 GMT sonofkrautrock said:

Sunak and Cameron visiting Morrisons in Carterton.

Could you ask them to pick up a pint of milk and some bog roll for me, as I appear to be out of both? Thanks.

Do you want them to "bogof" if they can?

[Foggy]

Jul 2, 2024 7:46:13 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

Jul 2, 2024 7:29:03 GMT sonofkrautrock said:

Sunak and Cameron visiting Morrisons in Carterton.

Could you ask them to pick up a pint of milk and some bog roll for me, as I appear to be out of both? Thanks.

Haven't you received enough material over the past five weeks which can be used as an alternative? 

[cogload]

Jul 2, 2024 17:10:09 GMT Foggy said:

Jul 2, 2024 7:46:13 GMT sirnorfolkpassmore said:

Could you ask them to pick up a pint of milk and some bog roll for me, as I appear to be out of both? Thanks.

Haven't you received enough material over the past five weeks which can be used as an alternative? 

A5, too thin or too glossy.