Epsom and Ewell

[stb12]

Epsom and Ewell

[Devil Wincarnate]

Having some difficulty linking the PDF on the phone, so:
www.epsom-ewell.gov.uk/UK-parliamentary-election-2024

Con, Lab, LD, Green, Reform, True and Fair, SDP

[londonseal80]

Had this down as a very likely Con Hold earlier but I am not so sure now with Farage back in charge of Reform. They may get around 12 to 15% here believe that both Lib Dem’s and Labour will both get above 25% here, the removal of Noel/Tattenhams and the addition of Leatherhead helps the Lib Dem’s which will encourage Lib Dem voters in Epsom itself to turn out. Like Runnymede and Weybridge I feel those could be rather close between Con and LD’s with Labour not too far behind (who will likely poll well in Epsom itself and around West Ewell but the rest of the seat is too affluent for Labour).

[rogerg]

Possibly the hardest seats in the SE to get a feel for. I think the MRPs currently have either Con a whisker ahead of LD (YouGov) or Lab winning (Survation). True & Fair is of course *that* Gina Miller. I gather she has been spending money on a ground campaign but who can say if anyone is listening to her. From the 2019 result and the demographics this is very much a seat the Lib Dems would be looking at this time. They do have something of a ground campaign of sorts going on and a very strong candidate. But local elections are almost all Indies so unlike elsewhere the Lib Dems don't have the campaign team infrastructure that comes from a strong councillor base or local Labour supporters who are trained in tactical voting by years of local election squeeze. I don't know if there's much ground activity from Labour, but even if there is nothing the national swing is enough to get them into the mid-20%s and maybe a bit higher. And this is a seat where on current polling it is plausible that no party gets to 30% of the vote. So there clearly is a credible route to a Labour win. I suspect that on the night the Tories will stagger home to an unconvincing hold over a very split opposition.

[Deleted]

Jun 8, 2024 10:45:32 GMT rogerg said:

Possibly the hardest seats in the SE to get a feel for. I think the MRPs currently have either Con a whisker ahead of LD (YouGov) or Lab winning (Survation). True & Fair is of course *that* Gina Miller. I gather she has been spending money on a ground campaign but who can say if anyone is listening to her. From the 2019 result and the demographics this is very much a seat the Lib Dems would be looking at this time. They do have something of a ground campaign of sorts going on and a very strong candidate. But local elections are almost all Indies so unlike elsewhere the Lib Dems don't have the campaign team infrastructure that comes from a strong councillor base or local Labour supporters who are trained in tactical voting by years of local election squeeze. I don't know if there's much ground activity from Labour, but even if there is nothing the national swing is enough to get them into the mid-20%s and maybe a bit higher. And this is a seat where on current polling it is plausible that no party gets to 30% of the vote. So there clearly is a credible route to a Labour win. I suspect that on the night the Tories will stagger home to an unconvincing hold over a very split opposition.

She seems like the perfect Lib Dem candidate, in a 'bollocks to Brexit' sort of way.

[Devil Wincarnate]

In a fun parallel to her mate Nigel Farage, look what happens when you look up True & Fair on Companies House.
find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/13552052

[londonseal80]

Jun 8, 2024 10:48:23 GMT @weld said:

Jun 8, 2024 10:45:32 GMT rogerg said:

Possibly the hardest seats in the SE to get a feel for. I think the MRPs currently have either Con a whisker ahead of LD (YouGov) or Lab winning (Survation). True & Fair is of course *that* Gina Miller. I gather she has been spending money on a ground campaign but who can say if anyone is listening to her. From the 2019 result and the demographics this is very much a seat the Lib Dems would be looking at this time. They do have something of a ground campaign of sorts going on and a very strong candidate. But local elections are almost all Indies so unlike elsewhere the Lib Dems don't have the campaign team infrastructure that comes from a strong councillor base or local Labour supporters who are trained in tactical voting by years of local election squeeze. I don't know if there's much ground activity from Labour, but even if there is nothing the national swing is enough to get them into the mid-20%s and maybe a bit higher. And this is a seat where on current polling it is plausible that no party gets to 30% of the vote. So there clearly is a credible route to a Labour win. I suspect that on the night the Tories will stagger home to an unconvincing hold over a very split opposition.

She seems like the perfect Lib Dem candidate, in a 'bollocks to Brexit' sort of way.

Hard to call but I will go something like this

Con 26
LD 25
Lab 25
Ref 16
Grn 6
T and F >1
SDP >1

[heslingtonian]

Apropos of nothing, I've heard that the Conservatives are very worried about this one.

[carolus]

Jun 10, 2024 18:54:05 GMT heslingtonian said:

Apropos of nothing, I've heard that the Conservatives are very worried about this one.

Gina Miller has them on the run?

[Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells]

Jun 10, 2024 12:19:52 GMT londonseal80 said:

Jun 8, 2024 10:48:23 GMT @weld said:

She seems like the perfect Lib Dem candidate, in a 'bollocks to Brexit' sort of way.

Hard to call but I will go something like this

Con 26
LD 25
Lab 25
Ref 16
Grn 6
T and F >1
SDP >1

Labour that high? Are you sure?

[Deleted]

Yes. My understanding is there are a fair few areas that would probably have labour councillors if the residents association weren't so dominant

[batman]

I don't think it's that outlandish a prediction, though I suspect the Tories will hold on by a little more than that. There is also a long history of the Labour & Liberal (Democrat) parties polling rather similarly to each other & regularly overtaking each other. Indeed the Lib Dems gained second place from Labour at the last election - the Labour candidate in each of the last two elections is a friend of mine, but he has moved to the Midlands now.

[nyx]

Jun 10, 2024 18:54:05 GMT heslingtonian said:

Apropos of nothing, I've heard that the Conservatives are very worried about this one.

Question is, worried from which direction?

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jun 10, 2024 19:01:09 GMT carolus said:

Jun 10, 2024 18:54:05 GMT heslingtonian said:

Apropos of nothing, I've heard that the Conservatives are very worried about this one.

Gina Miller has them on the run?

From the look of another thread, you must refer to her as True and Fair Limited.

[ll1975]

Really is a sign of the times that there is a shadow of a doubt that the Tories will hold this seat! It has never voted in any other party since the Redistribution of Seats Act of 1885! Personally well acquainted with this seat - I live near by and my brother lives there. We were there this weekend, and my son counted 8 LD posters, 3 Labour and none for the others parties. My brother, who commutes into the city, told me that the Labour candidate has been at the station a fair few times in the morning.
So for this one I'm going with a Tory hold. Primary reason for this is that the demographics for the seat are not necessarily conducive for the ABT to coalesce around either Lab or LD. There a couple of wards which are 'traditional Labour', where some voters went with the Tories in '19 due to Brexit, but will most likely go back to Labour and are not likely to vote LD. However, for some of these voters ULEZ may be an issues, as the constituency is virtually surrounded by the ULEZ (only way to avoid it is to go South).
A number of other factors also count against Labour, as in near by areas there is a large South African, and more recently, Hong Kong Chinese community. Both of these tend to be more ROC (LD or Tory) in political outlook. Epsom also has a large over 60s population - who most probably will stay loyal to the Tories. Overall I don't think the boundary changes will change much, as the size of the constituency is being reduced, which probably slightly helps Labour.
So overall, most likely is a split opposition vote allowing the Tories to stay in with a much reduced majority. LDs second with Lab not too far behind in 3rd.

[Deleted]

Lib Dem GAIN! Surrey starts voting like Connecticut.

[ricmk]

That's possibly the most impressive Lib Dem result of the lot, as tactical voting sites were recommending Labour here - the local campaign must have been incredible to overcome that.

[carolus]

True and Fair got 845 votes, 1.5%.

[cogload]

Jul 5, 2024 5:26:24 GMT ricmk said:

That's possibly the most impressive Lib Dem result of the lot, as tactical voting sites were recommending Labour here - the local campaign must have been incredible to overcome that.

I think our candidate had a lot to do with the result. Pretty formidable.

[londonseal80]

Very impressive win here, the area has only voted for right leaning parties in the past. Losing Nork/Tattenham and adding Leatherhead helped. But very strong and early campaigning and convincing Labour voters in Epsom to tactically switch to Lib Dem’s got them over the line here, it now the votes look very similar to neighbouring Sutton.