East Surrey

[bigfatron]

Tory freepost now received; much about the local work that Coutinho has done, two tiny 'Conservative' imprints, not one single mention of any national Tory policy, action or politician...
Green freepost also received making a big play on:
a) nothing will change under Labour, and
b) the number of councillors the Greens have on Reigate and Banstead council, a small part of which is in Surrey East constituency.

[carswellfan]

Jun 23, 2024 3:04:40 GMT johnloony said:

Labour candidate Tom Bowell and Green candidate Shasha Khan in 2015 and in 2024

This is most endearing!

[kitesurfer]

Interesting that Labour took second place here and the Lib Dem vote share fell.

Generally, the Lib Dems did extremely well in Surrey. When you consider that there are no Labour councillors in Tandridge, this a little bit puzzling.

I tend to think of this seat as being a bit similar to neighbouring Sevenoaks. The Tories often seem to have near identical vote shares and majorities in both seats. However, there the Lib Dem vote increased.

I can only assume that that the increased Lib Dem vote in Surrey was largely from Labour inclined voters and they either felt that the Tories were going to hold so there was no point voting tactically or the Lib Dems just devoted alll their energy on other seats in Surrey and left wing voters were not incentivised to vote tactically.

[nyx]

It can probably be explained simply by strong/enthusiastic local Labour campaign.

[batman]

a Starmer effect? (Labour were a very distant second in 2017 which I remembered because I am acquainted with that - paper - candidate)

[bigfatron]

A few thoughts on my local seat:
- No party ran a serious campaign here; there was not much canvassing going on and only one hand delivered leaflet (Lib Dem) aside from the standard postal deliveries from all parties.
It was therefore a seat that followed the national campaign profile.
- quite a few regular Lib Dem voters were persuaded to vote tactically for Labour; there was no clarity here as to who the challenger to the Tory really was.
- LibDem activists in the seat were being sent to Carshalton (initially) and Dorking (latterly) rather than working this seat. Most of us went to one or the other.
Could the LibDems have challenged here? Possibly, but only with a full campaign from the local team AND serious outside help, enough to establish us as the clear challengers. Neither were available in this election.

[johnloony]

Tom Bowell came to the Croydon count after his declaration, and he told us that it was the only seat (so far, i.e. by 4am) where Labour had overtaken the Lib Dems as the main challenger to Conservatives. I haven’t checked if that’s accurate, but I assume so.

[bigfatron]

Jul 12, 2024 18:21:27 GMT johnloony said:

Tom Bowell came to the Croydon count after his declaration, and he told us that it was the only seat (so far, i.e. by 4am) where Labour had overtaken the Lib Dems as the main challenger to Conservatives. I haven’t checked if that’s accurate, but I assume so.

Before Graham gets excited, Labour are still not the main challengers to the Tories in East Surrey and are very unlikely to become so!

[batman]

Nonsense. If nobody fights a serious campaign but Labour finishes clearly ahead of the LDs, and only about 6000 behind the Tories, Labour is the closest challenger. That doesn’t mean this seat will go Labour, but at present they are the main challengers because the voters have made them so.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 12, 2024 19:08:03 GMT batman said:

Nonsense. If nobody fights a serious campaign but Labour finishes clearly ahead of the LDs, and only about 6000 behind the Tories, Labour is the closest challenger. That doesn’t mean this seat will go Labour, but at present they are the main challengers because the voters have made them so.

I'm sorry Barnaby but this is nonsense. Labour are not 'challengers' in this constituency if that word means anything at all (which should be that a party has a decent shot at winning a seat). Would you have said the Conservatives were the main challengers to the SNP in Livingston following the 2019 election, on the basis of a distant second place, narrowly ahead of Labour?
The subsequent result there would have come as a shock to you. How is that the Lib Dems were able to come from third to first in by-elections in Shropshire North and Tiverton, despite Labour having previously been in second place and therefore 'the main challengers'? Obviously it is because the voters in those seats recognised the low ceiling to Labour's support and that regardless of the order of parties at the previous election, they were not credible challengers to the Conservatives in those seats.

[johnloony]

Jul 12, 2024 19:00:30 GMT bigfatron said:

Jul 12, 2024 18:21:27 GMT johnloony said:

Tom Bowell came to the Croydon count after his declaration, and he told us that it was the only seat (so far, i.e. by 4am) where Labour had overtaken the Lib Dems as the main challenger to Conservatives. I haven’t checked if that’s accurate, but I assume so.

Before Graham gets excited, Labour are still not the main challengers to the Tories in East Surrey and are very unlikely to become so!

When I wrote “main challenger” i simply meant “second place”.

[batman]

Jul 12, 2024 19:42:10 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Jul 12, 2024 19:08:03 GMT batman said:

Nonsense. If nobody fights a serious campaign but Labour finishes clearly ahead of the LDs, and only about 6000 behind the Tories, Labour is the closest challenger. That doesn’t mean this seat will go Labour, but at present they are the main challengers because the voters have made them so.

I'm sorry Barnaby but this is nonsense. Labour are not 'challengers' in this constituency if that word means anything at all (which should be that a party has a decent shot at winning a seat). Would you have said the Conservatives were the main challengers to the SNP in Livingston following the 2019 election, on the basis of a distant second place, narrowly ahead of Labour?
The subsequent result there would have come as a shock to you. How is that the Lib Dems were able to come from third to first in by-elections in Shropshire North and Tiverton, despite Labour having previously been in second place and therefore 'the main challengers'? Obviously it is because the voters in those seats recognised the low ceiling to Labour's support and that regardless of the order of parties at the previous election, they were not credible challengers to the Conservatives in those seats.

OK fair enough, but perhaps it would be more accurate to say that there is no realistic challenger at all here at the next general election, but that only if there were to be a by-election would the LDs emerge as the main contenders. I don't think the LDs are capable of winning this seat from third place at a general election. Although I would agree that Labour won't be winning it either.

[where2travel]

If opposition parties flip-flop between 10 and 20% from one election to another in seats like this there is generally no 'obvious' challenger in a General Election. That's highlighted by the fairly poor Tory performance this time (36%), which had never below 50% since 1997 and not below 60% in the Thatcher years. At the same time, Labour, Lib Dems and Reform all came close to each other in the region of 20% each.