stb12
Top Poster
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 23:42:37 GMT
East Surrey
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,543
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on May 23, 2024 21:21:10 GMT
Tom Bowell (Labour) former local elections candidate in Croydon, young, autistic, enthusiastic
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wallington
Green
The Pride of Croydon 2022 award winner
Posts: 1,322
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Post by wallington on May 25, 2024 9:45:21 GMT
Tom Bowell (Labour) former local elections candidate in Croydon, young, autistic, enthusiastic Shasha Khan is standing for the Greens in East Surrey, another candidate with a Croydon connection. |
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Clark
Forum Regular
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Post by Clark on May 27, 2024 10:06:37 GMT
I wonder if Labour will get a decent vote in Oxted since Keir Starmer was brought up here - seen as 'one of our own'...
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
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Post by The Bishop on May 27, 2024 10:40:36 GMT
Labour used to get councillors elected there at local level too.
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Post by norflondon on May 27, 2024 10:53:06 GMT
If Reform DO stand, I'm not sure even Kingswinford and South Staffordshire or South Holland & Deepings are safe from capture by the new conservative, remainy, rejoiny Labour party.
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Post by bigfatron on May 27, 2024 11:10:04 GMT
I wonder if Labour will get a decent vote in Oxted since Keir Starmer was brought up here - seen as 'one of our own'... Not from what I know of Oxted - it's a straight fight there between the Residents and Tories now, with the Tories far behind in council elections but probably getting most of those votes back at GEs. It will be interesting to see if a localist like Helena Windsor stands, and also if Reform do anything here - UKIP used to do quite well back in the day... most likely result IMHO is still Tories first, Lib Dems a distant second though. |
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Post by batman on May 27, 2024 12:19:39 GMT
If Reform DO stand, I'm not sure even Kingswinford and South Staffordshire or South Holland & Deepings are safe from capture by the new conservative, remainy, rejoiny Labour party. I think we can be fairly confident that Labour will not be winning in South Holland & the Deepings. If we won there there would be no Conservative MPs at all. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 27, 2024 14:44:01 GMT
I wonder if Labour will get a decent vote in Oxted since Keir Starmer was brought up here - seen as 'one of our own'... Not from what I know of Oxted - it's a straight fight there between the Residents and Tories now, with the Tories far behind in council elections but probably getting most of those votes back at GEs. It will be interesting to see if a localist like Helena Windsor stands, and also if Reform do anything here - UKIP used to do quite well back in the day... most likely result IMHO is still Tories first, Lib Dems a distant second though. The Oxted and Limpsfield residents are unlikely to have a candidate for the parliamentary seat. Oxted South was quite frequently a Labour ward in the past based on fairly extensive council estates. |
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Post by bigfatron on May 27, 2024 16:16:26 GMT
Not from what I know of Oxted - it's a straight fight there between the Residents and Tories now, with the Tories far behind in council elections but probably getting most of those votes back at GEs. It will be interesting to see if a localist like Helena Windsor stands, and also if Reform do anything here - UKIP used to do quite well back in the day... most likely result IMHO is still Tories first, Lib Dems a distant second though. The Oxted and Limpsfield residents are unlikely to have a candidate for the parliamentary seat. Oxted South was quite frequently a Labour ward in the past based on fairly extensive council estates. As I alluded to above, Helena Windsor, then a well-known OLRG councillor, stood as an Independent in 2019 - she only got 1,374 votes but she - or someone similar - might do rather better in the current anti-Tory atmosphere were they to stand. I understand Oxted South has council and ex-council housing, but Labour only picked up 265 votes in May's council elections in Oxted S and only 170 in Oxted N, so it's not really a hotbed of Labour support. Total votes across Tandridge in May were: Residents - 8,777 Tory - 6,070 Lib Dem - 5,178 Independents - 3,647 Labour - 3,097 Green - 1,102 So, where the Residents' votes go is critical; back to the Tory as previously, or more widely given how much the Residents and Tories now dislike each other locally? Also, it's not immediately obvious that voters think that Labour are in contention here; regardless of the national polling this is seen locally as almost irrevocably safe Tory. I'd expect Labour to do better than the 2019 outcome of 14%, but personally I'd be very surprised if they get much above 25% |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 27, 2024 19:03:34 GMT
The Oxted and Limpsfield residents are unlikely to have a candidate for the parliamentary seat. Oxted South was quite frequently a Labour ward in the past based on fairly extensive council estates. As I alluded to above, Helena Windsor, then a well-known OLRG councillor, stood as an Independent in 2019 - she only got 1,374 votes but she - or someone similar - might do rather better in the current anti-Tory atmosphere were they to stand. I understand Oxted South has council and ex-council housing, but Labour only picked up 265 votes in May's council elections in Oxted S and only 170 in Oxted N, so it's not really a hotbed of Labour support. Total votes across Tandridge in May were: Residents - 8,777 Tory - 6,070 Lib Dem - 5,178 Independents - 3,647 Labour - 3,097 Green - 1,102 So, where the Residents' votes go is critical; back to the Tory as previously, or more widely given how much the Residents and Tories now dislike each other locally? Also, it's not immediately obvious that voters think that Labour are in contention here; regardless of the national polling this is seen locally as almost irrevocably safe Tory. I'd expect Labour to do better than the 2019 outcome of 14%, but personally I'd be very surprised if they get much above 25% Meanwhile the Conservatives won 235 and 186 votes respectively, so not a hotbed of their support either based on that measure. Meanwhile the Residents won over 70% across Oxted compared to around 11% for the Conservatives so I don't think 'most' of that is going 'back' to the Tories, unless you think they're going to get around 70% of the vote there. No-one thinks Labour is going to get remotely close here - 25% would surpass what they got in 1997 but if they are getting 20-25% across the whole constituency, they would be polling heavily in wards like Oxted South. |
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Post by heslingtonian on May 28, 2024 18:02:54 GMT
This feels like the only seat in Surrey you could call for the Conservatives with any great degree of confidence.
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steve
Non-Aligned
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Post by steve on May 28, 2024 19:08:16 GMT
This feels like the only seat in Surrey you could call for the Conservatives with any great degree of confidence. Must be the first time in modern British political history that Surrey has been an electoral battleground. |
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jakegb
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Post by jakegb on May 28, 2024 19:14:57 GMT
This feels like the only seat in Surrey you could call for the Conservatives with any great degree of confidence. Must be the first time in modern British political history that Surrey has been an electoral battleground. First time across the county at large. There have been close contests in the past, most notably in Guildford (where the Libs have succeeded once before). Lab have also got relatively close in Spelthorne in 97. The likes of Lincolnshire and Essex have already taken over Surrey's mantle as the safest counties (for the Tories) - and I can't see Surrey recapturing this title post July 4th. |
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Post by stodge on May 28, 2024 19:15:52 GMT
Someone might be able to correct me but since 1918, every MP for a Surrey constituency has been a Conservative with the exception of Sue Doughty who won Guildford for the LDs in 2001 and held it for one term losing it in 2005.
I don't believe any other party has been represented by a Surrey MP - even in 1945 I think all Surrey seats returned Conservatives.
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Post by kevinf on May 28, 2024 19:51:54 GMT
Someone might be able to correct me but since 1918, every MP for a Surrey constituency has been a Conservative with the exception of Sue Doughty who won Guildford for the LDs in 2001 and held it for one term losing it in 2005. I don't believe any other party has been represented by a Surrey MP - even in 1945 I think all Surrey seats returned Conservatives. Not elected as such, but one disaffected Tory MP joined the Referendum Party. |
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Post by kitesurfer on May 28, 2024 20:02:34 GMT
Someone might be able to correct me but since 1918, every MP for a Surrey constituency has been a Conservative with the exception of Sue Doughty who won Guildford for the LDs in 2001 and held it for one term losing it in 2005. I don't believe any other party has been represented by a Surrey MP - even in 1945 I think all Surrey seats returned Conservatives. Not elected as such, but one disaffected Tory MP joined the Referendum Party. Of course, Sam Gyimah in this of all seats defected to the Lib Dems as recently as 2019. |
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Post by heslingtonian on May 28, 2024 20:11:48 GMT
Someone might be able to correct me but since 1918, every MP for a Surrey constituency has been a Conservative with the exception of Sue Doughty who won Guildford for the LDs in 2001 and held it for one term losing it in 2005. I don't believe any other party has been represented by a Surrey MP - even in 1945 I think all Surrey seats returned Conservatives. In 1945 Spelthorne returned a Labour MP with majority of over 8,000. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 28, 2024 20:40:21 GMT
Someone might be able to correct me but since 1918, every MP for a Surrey constituency has been a Conservative with the exception of Sue Doughty who won Guildford for the LDs in 2001 and held it for one term losing it in 2005. I don't believe any other party has been represented by a Surrey MP - even in 1945 I think all Surrey seats returned Conservatives. In 1945 Spelthorne returned a Labour MP with majority of over 8,000. When it included Feltham and Yiewsly |
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Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on May 28, 2024 22:02:38 GMT
Someone might be able to correct me but since 1918, every MP for a Surrey constituency has been a Conservative with the exception of Sue Doughty who won Guildford for the LDs in 2001 and held it for one term losing it in 2005. Her successor in Guildford ended her last term in 2019 as an independent MP (and candidate). |
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