East Surrey

[steve]

In Surrey as it is now constituted, i.e. excluding those areas now falling within London it appears the Conservatives have been defeated just four times since 1885.

1906 - Chertsey, Guildford, Reigate
2001 - Guildford

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parliamentary_constituencies_in_Surrey

It's quite possible that they may lose more seats in 2024 than they have in the entirety of the previous 139 years.

[steve]

May 28, 2024 20:11:48 GMT heslingtonian said:

May 28, 2024 19:15:52 GMT stodge said:

Someone might be able to correct me but since 1918, every MP for a Surrey constituency has been a Conservative with the exception of Sue Doughty who won Guildford for the LDs in 2001 and held it for one term losing it in 2005.

I don't believe any other party has been represented by a Surrey MP - even in 1945 I think all Surrey seats returned Conservatives.

In 1945 Spelthorne returned a Labour MP with majority of over 8,000.

During that period I believe it included parts of what are now London and was in Middlesex rather than Surrey.

[stodge]

Surrey County Cricket Club was founded in 1845 and took a lease on the Kennington Oval ground soon after.

The County Councils Act of 1888 created a London County Council and sent Surrey to somewhere near its current borders.

There have been some re-drawings since - areas like Staines, Sunbury and Ashford which were formerly in Middlesex came into Surrey (in 1945 Spelthorne was part of Middlesex) as part of the London Government Act of 1963 which created the GLC in 1965. Otherwise, the adjustments have been minor - some land around Poyle went into Buckinghamshire in the 1990s.

To clarify, we have the 1906 landslide which saw Guildford, Chertsey and Reigate go Liberal.

Since 1918, we have only Guildford in 2001 so far as a constituency which elected a non-Conservative at an election. I'm excluding changes during a Parliament as a result of defection.

That may change on July 4th (or it may not).

[batman]

Spelthorne, although it did indeed include noteworthy areas which are now in Greater London, was nevertheless to quite a large extent in what is now the present-day county of Surrey when it was won by Labour in 1945. It therefore counts even if the Tories would have won even in 1945 in the constituency as it is nowadays drawn. I do not think that the Tories will manage to win all the Surrey seats in this general election. Indeed, they may not even manage a majority of them, though it's more likely that they will.

[londonseal80]

I rank the Surrey seats into safeness for the Tories

1. East Surrey
The safest out of the lot under no circumstances will this seat be lost

2. Reigate

This another very solid seat I believe there will be a good swing to both Labour and Greens here - I predict the latter may come a decent third here if they can transfer council support to a GE. The Lib Dem’s have bigger targets in the county.

3. Epsom and Ewell
4. Runnymede and Weybridge
5. Spelthorne

Three very likely Con Holds, these are the seats in Surrey that Labour will likely do best in. 10% of me says there could possibly be a banana skin for the Tories in one of these may not necessarily be the obvious one of three. Harrow West had similar majorities to these seats in 1992.

6. Surrey Heath
7. Farnham and Bordon

This is where get into the should be safe Conservative but may not be. Lib Dem’s could sweep both of these if it is a worse night than already predicted.

8. Dorking and Horley

I’m calling this to go Lib Dem. Not a definite and wouldn’t be complacent if I was a member of the party. With the unpopularness of the government I think it is likely to go

9. Esher and Walton
10. Woking
11. Guildford

I think the Tories are toast in these three seats. The latter two I believe will have larger majorities than say Carshalton and Wallington, of which I also predict as a Lib Dem gain on election night.

[londonseal80]

Forgot Godalming and Ash

Going for Lib Dem gain so I predict at least five Lib Dem seats in Surrey, but could be up to seven.

[jakegb]

May 29, 2024 16:44:08 GMT londonseal80 said:

I rank the Surrey seats into safeness for the Tories

1. East Surrey
The safest out of the lot under no circumstances will this seat be lost

2. Reigate

This another very solid seat I believe there will be a good swing to both Labour and Greens here - I predict the latter may come a decent third here if they can transfer council support to a GE. The Lib Dem’s have bigger targets in the county.

3. Epsom and Ewell
4. Runnymede and Weybridge
5. Spelthorne

Three very likely Con Holds, these are the seats in Surrey that Labour will likely do best in. 10% of me says there could possibly be a banana skin for the Tories in one of these may not necessarily be the obvious one of three. Harrow West had similar majorities to these seats in 1992.

6. Surrey Heath
7. Farnham and Bordon

This is where get into the should be safe Conservative but may not be. Lib Dem’s could sweep both of these if it is a worse night than already predicted.

8. Dorking and Horley

I’m calling this to go Lib Dem. Not a definite and wouldn’t be complacent if I was a member of the party. With the unpopularness of the government I think it is likely to go

9. Esher and Walton
10. Woking
11. Guildford

I think the Tories are toast in these three seats. The latter two I believe will have larger majorities than say Carshalton and Wallington, of which I also predict as a Lib Dem gain on election night.

No Godalming and Ash? 

Otherwise I would agree with much of that order, though perhaps placing E and W below Woking. 

[londonseal80]

May 29, 2024 17:10:12 GMT jakegb said:

May 29, 2024 16:44:08 GMT londonseal80 said:

I rank the Surrey seats into safeness for the Tories

1. East Surrey
The safest out of the lot under no circumstances will this seat be lost

2. Reigate

This another very solid seat I believe there will be a good swing to both Labour and Greens here - I predict the latter may come a decent third here if they can transfer council support to a GE. The Lib Dem’s have bigger targets in the county.

3. Epsom and Ewell
4. Runnymede and Weybridge
5. Spelthorne

Three very likely Con Holds, these are the seats in Surrey that Labour will likely do best in. 10% of me says there could possibly be a banana skin for the Tories in one of these may not necessarily be the obvious one of three. Harrow West had similar majorities to these seats in 1992.

6. Surrey Heath
7. Farnham and Bordon

This is where get into the should be safe Conservative but may not be. Lib Dem’s could sweep both of these if it is a worse night than already predicted.

8. Dorking and Horley

I’m calling this to go Lib Dem. Not a definite and wouldn’t be complacent if I was a member of the party. With the unpopularness of the government I think it is likely to go

9. Esher and Walton
10. Woking
11. Guildford

I think the Tories are toast in these three seats. The latter two I believe will have larger majorities than say Carshalton and Wallington, of which I also predict as a Lib Dem gain on election night.

No Godalming and Ash? 

Otherwise I would agree with much of that order, though perhaps placing E and W below Woking. 

Just realised I forgot it used to Surrey having 11 seats rather than 12 It put Godalming and Ash just after Dorking and Horley.

Woking has local factors - Tories wiped out, bankrupt council which makes me feel there will heavier swing plus a good Labour vote to squeeze. Which is only reason put it higher than Esther and Walton, I’d expect both have at least an 8k LD majority.

[john07]

May 27, 2024 16:16:26 GMT bigfatron said:

As I alluded to above, Helena Windsor, then a well-known OLRG councillor, stood as an Independent in 2019 - she only got 1,374 votes but she - or someone similar - might do rather better in the current anti-Tory atmosphere were they to stand.

Can anyone tell us what the OLRG are?

I almost read that as OMRL Party!

[YL]

May 29, 2024 18:09:21 GMT john07 said:

May 27, 2024 16:16:26 GMT bigfatron said:

As I alluded to above, Helena Windsor, then a well-known OLRG councillor, stood as an Independent in 2019 - she only got 1,374 votes but she - or someone similar - might do rather better in the current anti-Tory atmosphere were they to stand.

Can anyone tell us what the OLRG are?

I almost read that as OMRL Party!

Oxted and Limpsfield Residents Group

[carswellfan]

I have it on authority that Mrs Helena Windsor will not be standing this time around as an independent. I also know that the Heritage Party (one of various right wing spin offs from UKIP) were also going to stand, as they have down in the locals to very few votes. However, they are supporting the Reform candidate Chris Scott who himself was a former Kipper.

[Merseymike]

May 29, 2024 20:21:25 GMT carswellfan said:

I have it on authority that Mrs Helena Windsor will not be standing this time around as an independent. I also know that the Heritage Party (one of various right wing spin offs from UKIP) were also going to stand, as they have down in the locals to very few votes. However, they are supporting the Brexit Party candidate Chris Scott who himself was a former Kipper.

Reform UK? Brexit party is no more....

[carswellfan]

I stand corrected.

[bigfatron]

SOPN


Candidate Name                             Description of candidate


Bowell, Thomas Peter Frederick  Labour Party 
Coutinho, Claire Coryl Julia          Conservative Party Candidate
Hogbin, Martin Alan                      Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Khan, Shasha                                  The Green Party
Malcomson, Claire                         Liberal Democrats
Moore, Judy                                    Independent
Scott, Chris                                      Reform UK 

Judy Moore stood as an Independent candidate in Dormansland & Felbridge and finished fourth, 36 votes behind the final successful candidate.

[john07]

May 29, 2024 20:28:59 GMT Merseymike said:

May 29, 2024 20:21:25 GMT carswellfan said:

I have it on authority that Mrs Helena Windsor will not be standing this time around as an independent. I also know that the Heritage Party (one of various right wing spin offs from UKIP) were also going to stand, as they have down in the locals to very few votes. However, they are supporting the Brexit Party candidate Chris Scott who himself was a former Kipper.

Reform UK? Brexit party is no more....

In the words of Alan Partridge:

They’ve just rebadged it you fool!

[carswellfan]

Judy More, Independent candidate and Chris Scott Reform UK are both former UKIP activists.

[bigfatron]

Scores on the doors so far:
- Lib Dems: One constituency-specific freepost A5, one hand-delivered constituency-specific A3.
- Reform: One generic freepost A5
- Labour: Nothing
- Tory: Nothing
- Green: Nothing
- Indy: Nothing

Labour, I understand this seat is miles from a priority, but nothing at all yet from Clare Coutinho? Postal votes have dropped early last week for everyone pre-registered to get them!

[johnloony]

Labour candidate Tom Bowell and Green candidate Shasha Khan in 2015 and in 2024

[steve]

Jun 23, 2024 3:04:40 GMT johnloony said:

Labour candidate Tom Bowell and Green candidate Shasha Khan in 2015 and in 2024

Mr Khan wasn't sufficiently persuasive then.

[bigfatron]

Jun 22, 2024 8:17:29 GMT bigfatron said:

Scores on the doors so far:
- Lib Dems: One constituency-specific freepost A5, one hand-delivered constituency-specific A3.
- Reform: One generic freepost A5
- Labour: Nothing
- Tory: Nothing
- Green: Nothing
- Indy: Nothing

Labour, I understand this seat is miles from a priority, but nothing at all yet from Clare Coutinho? Postal votes have dropped early last week for everyone pre-registered to get them!

We have had an Indy freepost now, and some local addresses have had a Tory free post as well; maybe mine is lost in the post!