stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,384 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 23:36:40 GMT
Buckingham and Bletchley
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,621
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Post by ricmk on Mar 14, 2024 0:13:53 GMT
Now we're onto the good stuff.... Link to the constituency profile is vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/17703/buckingham-bletchleyThis is an un-natural pairing of the southern parts of Milton Keynes "and Bletchley" with the northern parts of the old Buckingham seat and the north of Bucks proper. Of the 3 seats covering Milton Keynes, it's easily the best Con prospect - surely in their worst nightmares, they won't be losing Buckingham, will they? Iain Stewart (Con, Milton Keynes South) defends - an easy decision to go with the far safer half of his current seat. Callum Anderson (Lab, Cllr for Acton South, Ealing) is the Labour challenger. Dominic Dyer is the Lib Dem candidate - an environmentalist who carries Chris Packham's endorsement. Fair to say there is a lot of activity going into the Bletchley wards especially by Labour ahead of May. If they want to look like serious prospects here they could do with winning the Tattenhoe ward, and getting big majorities in the Bletchley wards. I wouldn't bet against it at the moment. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,621
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Post by ricmk on Jun 7, 2024 18:39:42 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 19, 2024 14:24:33 GMT
I think if you're going to have a candidate without a local address, it's probably better to give the full address than to have [Address in X], because there's more chance electors won't read it and won't realise they aren't local.
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Clark
Forum Regular
Posts: 744
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Post by Clark on Jun 19, 2024 14:29:57 GMT
In percentage terms, how much do you reckon a non local candidate damages a party's vote compared with one from that constituency? 1%? 5%?
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,850
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Post by johng on Jun 19, 2024 14:34:27 GMT
In percentage terms, how much do you reckon a non local candidate damages a party's vote compared with one from that constituency? 1%? 5%?
Unless there are specific issues, I'd be surprised if it's more 1%.
Though it's very campaign and constituency dependent I think.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jul 1, 2024 12:29:06 GMT
Guess where Mr Starmer be today?
'Eee be 'ere..
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,621
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Post by ricmk on Jul 1, 2024 12:51:08 GMT
I can verify that MK Labour have been piling in here, and the Buckingham Tories have been coming in to campaign at the Bletchley end. For example the girl you can see in the picture was Labour's candidate in Newport Pagnell at the by-election and in May, very much in MK North.
I thought Labour were ahead here, but they must think it's close if they've pulled Keir Starmer here in polling week. Angela Rayner has already visited.
EDIT: I think from the photos that's the Shoulder of Mutton pub in Little Horwood. Recommended!
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Post by batman on Jul 1, 2024 14:35:38 GMT
I'm quite sure Labour is ahead, but with a swing of nearly 13% needed it's hardly a completely sure-fire thing. I'd have thought that pulling workers out of MK & sending them here is positive for Labour & indicates optimism rather than pessimism; the overly conservative targetting of 1997, and again in 2017, has not broadly been replicated, and it has been a mostly aggressive, ambitious campaign. The possibility of Labour winning 5 seats in the ceremonial county of Bucks is certainly there, and that would be unprecedented, although that's partly because there were only 3 seats in the entire ceremonial county as it is today in 1945! (Wycombe & Buckingham were won by Labour, and Aylesbury for the Tories. There were at that time no other seats.)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 1, 2024 15:17:39 GMT
I'm quite sure Labour is ahead, but with a swing of nearly 13% needed it's hardly a completely sure-fire thing. I'd have thought that pulling workers out of MK & sending them here is positive for Labour & indicates optimism rather than pessimism; the overly conservative targetting of 1997, and again in 2017, has not broadly been replicated, and it has been a mostly aggressive, ambitious campaign. The possibility of Labour winning 5 seats in the ceremonial county of Bucks is certainly there, and that would be unprecedented, although that's partly because there were only 3 seats in the entire ceremonial county as it is today in 1945! (Wycombe & Buckingham were won by Labour, and Aylesbury for the Tories. There were at that time no other seats.) There was in fact Eton & Slough which was one of the new creations for that election and did go Labour as well (though only narrowly as it included the whole Eton rural district as well as the small town itself) |
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Post by batman on Jul 1, 2024 15:28:36 GMT
I did mean the ceremonial county of Bucks of today, but of course yes, Labour did win Eton & Slough which was then in Bucks. The winner was Benn Levy, a playwright, who did not stand again in 1950. My dad remembered him. I obviously remember his successor, Fenner Brockway, and the subsequent MPs for the area.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,913
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Post by YL on Jul 1, 2024 19:46:03 GMT
I did mean the ceremonial county of Bucks of today, but of course yes, Labour did win Eton & Slough which was then in Bucks. The winner was Benn Levy, a playwright, who did not stand again in 1950. My dad remembered him. I obviously remember his successor, Fenner Brockway, and the subsequent MPs for the area. Some of the 1945 Eton & Slough was in modern Bucks: it went as far north as Gerrards Cross (meaning that that town has had a Labour MP!). All the areas from modern Bucks which were included were removed in 1950, when it was reduced to just Slough MB and Eton UD. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,794
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Post by john07 on Jul 1, 2024 19:51:29 GMT
I did mean the ceremonial county of Bucks of today, but of course yes, Labour did win Eton & Slough which was then in Bucks. The winner was Benn Levy, a playwright, who did not stand again in 1950. My dad remembered him. I obviously remember his successor, Fenner Brockway, and the subsequent MPs for the area. What about captain Bob? |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 9,142
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Post by cogload on Jul 4, 2024 7:57:08 GMT
Post lunchtime I imagine every Labour activist in MK will be descending on this constituency.
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Post by batman on Jul 4, 2024 8:05:50 GMT
I did mean the ceremonial county of Bucks of today, but of course yes, Labour did win Eton & Slough which was then in Bucks. The winner was Benn Levy, a playwright, who did not stand again in 1950. My dad remembered him. I obviously remember his successor, Fenner Brockway, and the subsequent MPs for the area. What about captain Bob? captain Bob was MP for Buckingham not Eton & Slough. |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,621
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Post by ricmk on Jul 4, 2024 9:49:38 GMT
Post lunchtime I imagine every Labour activist in MK will be descending on this constituency. Yesterday lunchtime, by the looks of things! |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,621
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Post by ricmk on Jul 4, 2024 23:52:34 GMT
63.94% turn out for Buckingham and Bletchley
Wasn't expecting this for a couple of hours yet.
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