Post by Robert Waller on Oct 13, 2023 23:40:41 GMT
Rather conveniently, when the most recent version of the Boundary Commission started its work reviewing parliamentary constituency boundaries, the quota of seats to which Buckinghamshire, including the unitary authority of Milton Keynes, was entitled was exactly 8.00 – one more than then possessed. Somewhat less conveniently, but hardly surprisingly, the ‘new city’ of Milton Keynes itself was now due 2.57 constituencies, which clearly means that it could no longer have an exact number (two) as previously. The electorate of Milton Keynes North had already expanded to 91,730 – and that of the South division to a massive 96,543. Major changes were clearly necessary and have indeed been made.
Somewhat counter-intuitively, the number of constituencies actually with Milton Keynes in the name was originally reduced to one. However after the inquiry process identified a large number of objections to the names initially proposed, the Commission reverted to the name 'Milton Keynes North' (instead of 'Newport Pagnell') and in the final report Milton Keynes Central - although of course the new city also contributes substantially to 'Buckingham and Bletchley', an entirely new seat in the sense that it contains only a minority of both the Milton Keynes South and Buckingham divisions - and the one which deals with that awkward extra fraction of a quota that MK can claim.
Bletchley is probably best known now as the site of the Second World War codebreaking and intelligence centre at Bletchley Park (though that was of course not widely known at all for decades afterwards). The small North Buckinghamshire market town was already expanding after that war and before the conception of an inclusion in Milton Keynes; for example my uncle Ormerod Ashworth, working in the Engineer and Surveyor’s office of its Urban District Council, designed the immediately post war council estate around St John’s Road (the blueprints are in my attic). Bletchley now gives its name to three unitary authority wards with a total of nearly 33,000 electors, although these also cover some New Town developments such as the Water Eaton as well as another pre-existing community, Fenny Stratford (actually at the other end of the seat from its Stony namesake).
Labour can certainly win in Bletchley in a good year. In the most recent Milton Keynes City Council elections in May 2023 they won all three of the wards, holding East (easily) and West more narrowly, and gaining Bletchley Park. The Conservatives have not won East since 1992, though UKIP took a seat on one occasion, 2014. Since 2011 Labour have won West nine times to the Tories twice. Park has been won by each major party 11 times in the 21st century. These variations reflect the different character of the three Bletchley wards. East has the most social rented housing around 25%, to the 15% of the other two – it really covers Fenny Stratford and Water Eaton rather than Bletchley itself. There is a substantial Black population in the Water Eaton section of East ward, particularly the Lakes estate, reaching 20 to 26% in Output Areas there; and the Asian population of the seat is most concentrated in the older housing in and near Fenny Stratford. Bletchley Park ward does indeed include the Second World war site, now a tourist attraction, but extends through the most middle class part of the town towards Far Bletchley, the MSOAs here being around 33% professional and managerial in the 2021 Census, still lower than average for Buckinghamshire and the South East region as a whole.
The rest of the new Buckingham & Bletchley, that is another 40,000 voters, includes one ward, Tattenhoe, that is part of the Milton Keynes UA and was in its South constituency. Despite being named after a medieval village, Tattenhoe is mainly comprised of some of the newest New City neighbourhoods on the very south west edge of its built up area, such as Kingsmead, Oxley Park and Westcroft. In May 2023 it was the only MK ward in the new seat retained by the Tories, as it has been in every May election since 2011, except for a solitary Labour victory in 2018 (indeed even before 2011 its tone was Liberal Democrat rather than Labour)
There are also four wards from Buckinghamshire unitary. Two of these sound as if they are urban and two rural, though both Buckingham East and West (17,000 between them) include countryside and villages as well as parts of Buckingham town, which is really rather small for a place that gives its name to a whole county. East stretches from most of the town centre through Maids Moreton as far as Throwborogh to the east, and Lillington Lovell to the north, almost in Northamptonshire. Buckingham West is even larger. In the town it includes the campus of the private university, but extends to rural idylls such as Preston Blissett and yet another Stratford, tiny Water Stratford, nearly as far as Brackley, also over the Northants border. The final two wards have even less of an urban element, and are named after the charming small town of Winslow (population 4,000) and the village of Great Brickhill (population 817). Tony and Cherie Blair were once reported as considering buying Winslow Hall.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1565967/Inside-the-Blairs-new-home-at-Winslow-Hall.html
However even they might not have found the political tone of the north Buckinghamshire countryside very congenial. In the inaugural (and still most recent) unitary authority elections in May 2021, the Conservatives won all three seats in Great Brickhill and all three in Winslow (though the third only by 2 votes from the Liberal Democrats). They also swept the board in Buckingham East, and took two of the three in Buckingham West – though the top Labour candidate, Robin Stuchbury, appeared to have a remarkable personal vote He topped the overall poll with 1,716 votes. His two running mates managed only 750 and 664.
Buckingham & Bletchley will probably be safely Conservative given the influence of the Buckingham segment – the notional estimated majority for 2019 is over 13,500, and the swing required would be over 13% - within the range of midterm opinion polls, but they do not necessarily convert to actual voting behaviour. It might though be recalled that the estimable Robert Maxwell held a Buckingham seat for Labour that also covered Bletchley (as well as Newport Pagnell and Wolverton, covering most quadrants of the early growth of Milton Keynes) between 1964 and 1970. That seat would have been far oversized by now, of course; even in 1979 it had an electorate of no less than 103,511, of whom 81,319 actually voted. By 1982, the very first edition of the Almanac of British Politics reported that it had reached 122,000 and was the largest anywhere in the United Kingdom.
The population expansion of north Buckinghamshire has continued ever since, if not at quite such a rapid rate, and the creation of a seat that once again unites Buckingham itself with a part of Milton Keynes, even if only a corner of it, is the consequence. It would indeed be quite ironic if Labour did actually gain the chief successor of the seat that John Bercow had represented as Speaker, during his apparent migration leftwards while he held that office.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.9% 382/575
Owner occupied 67.8% 238/575
Private rented 16.5% 359/575
Social rented 15.7% 260/575
White 80.2% 405/575
Black 6.6% 101/575
Asian 8.6% 182/575
Managerial & professional 36.9% 178/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.8% 350/575
Degree level 34.8% 215/575
No qualifications 15.9% 381/575
Students 6.8% 200/575
Boundary Changes
Buckingham & Bletchley consists of
42.4% of Milton Keynes South
39.6% of Buckingham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_297_Buckingham%20and%20Bletchley_Landscape.pdf
Notional results 2019 on the proposed new boundaries
(Rallings & Thrasher)
Somewhat counter-intuitively, the number of constituencies actually with Milton Keynes in the name was originally reduced to one. However after the inquiry process identified a large number of objections to the names initially proposed, the Commission reverted to the name 'Milton Keynes North' (instead of 'Newport Pagnell') and in the final report Milton Keynes Central - although of course the new city also contributes substantially to 'Buckingham and Bletchley', an entirely new seat in the sense that it contains only a minority of both the Milton Keynes South and Buckingham divisions - and the one which deals with that awkward extra fraction of a quota that MK can claim.
Bletchley is probably best known now as the site of the Second World War codebreaking and intelligence centre at Bletchley Park (though that was of course not widely known at all for decades afterwards). The small North Buckinghamshire market town was already expanding after that war and before the conception of an inclusion in Milton Keynes; for example my uncle Ormerod Ashworth, working in the Engineer and Surveyor’s office of its Urban District Council, designed the immediately post war council estate around St John’s Road (the blueprints are in my attic). Bletchley now gives its name to three unitary authority wards with a total of nearly 33,000 electors, although these also cover some New Town developments such as the Water Eaton as well as another pre-existing community, Fenny Stratford (actually at the other end of the seat from its Stony namesake).
Labour can certainly win in Bletchley in a good year. In the most recent Milton Keynes City Council elections in May 2023 they won all three of the wards, holding East (easily) and West more narrowly, and gaining Bletchley Park. The Conservatives have not won East since 1992, though UKIP took a seat on one occasion, 2014. Since 2011 Labour have won West nine times to the Tories twice. Park has been won by each major party 11 times in the 21st century. These variations reflect the different character of the three Bletchley wards. East has the most social rented housing around 25%, to the 15% of the other two – it really covers Fenny Stratford and Water Eaton rather than Bletchley itself. There is a substantial Black population in the Water Eaton section of East ward, particularly the Lakes estate, reaching 20 to 26% in Output Areas there; and the Asian population of the seat is most concentrated in the older housing in and near Fenny Stratford. Bletchley Park ward does indeed include the Second World war site, now a tourist attraction, but extends through the most middle class part of the town towards Far Bletchley, the MSOAs here being around 33% professional and managerial in the 2021 Census, still lower than average for Buckinghamshire and the South East region as a whole.
The rest of the new Buckingham & Bletchley, that is another 40,000 voters, includes one ward, Tattenhoe, that is part of the Milton Keynes UA and was in its South constituency. Despite being named after a medieval village, Tattenhoe is mainly comprised of some of the newest New City neighbourhoods on the very south west edge of its built up area, such as Kingsmead, Oxley Park and Westcroft. In May 2023 it was the only MK ward in the new seat retained by the Tories, as it has been in every May election since 2011, except for a solitary Labour victory in 2018 (indeed even before 2011 its tone was Liberal Democrat rather than Labour)
There are also four wards from Buckinghamshire unitary. Two of these sound as if they are urban and two rural, though both Buckingham East and West (17,000 between them) include countryside and villages as well as parts of Buckingham town, which is really rather small for a place that gives its name to a whole county. East stretches from most of the town centre through Maids Moreton as far as Throwborogh to the east, and Lillington Lovell to the north, almost in Northamptonshire. Buckingham West is even larger. In the town it includes the campus of the private university, but extends to rural idylls such as Preston Blissett and yet another Stratford, tiny Water Stratford, nearly as far as Brackley, also over the Northants border. The final two wards have even less of an urban element, and are named after the charming small town of Winslow (population 4,000) and the village of Great Brickhill (population 817). Tony and Cherie Blair were once reported as considering buying Winslow Hall.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1565967/Inside-the-Blairs-new-home-at-Winslow-Hall.html
However even they might not have found the political tone of the north Buckinghamshire countryside very congenial. In the inaugural (and still most recent) unitary authority elections in May 2021, the Conservatives won all three seats in Great Brickhill and all three in Winslow (though the third only by 2 votes from the Liberal Democrats). They also swept the board in Buckingham East, and took two of the three in Buckingham West – though the top Labour candidate, Robin Stuchbury, appeared to have a remarkable personal vote He topped the overall poll with 1,716 votes. His two running mates managed only 750 and 664.
Buckingham & Bletchley will probably be safely Conservative given the influence of the Buckingham segment – the notional estimated majority for 2019 is over 13,500, and the swing required would be over 13% - within the range of midterm opinion polls, but they do not necessarily convert to actual voting behaviour. It might though be recalled that the estimable Robert Maxwell held a Buckingham seat for Labour that also covered Bletchley (as well as Newport Pagnell and Wolverton, covering most quadrants of the early growth of Milton Keynes) between 1964 and 1970. That seat would have been far oversized by now, of course; even in 1979 it had an electorate of no less than 103,511, of whom 81,319 actually voted. By 1982, the very first edition of the Almanac of British Politics reported that it had reached 122,000 and was the largest anywhere in the United Kingdom.
The population expansion of north Buckinghamshire has continued ever since, if not at quite such a rapid rate, and the creation of a seat that once again unites Buckingham itself with a part of Milton Keynes, even if only a corner of it, is the consequence. It would indeed be quite ironic if Labour did actually gain the chief successor of the seat that John Bercow had represented as Speaker, during his apparent migration leftwards while he held that office.
2021 Census, new boundaries
Age 65+ 16.9% 382/575
Owner occupied 67.8% 238/575
Private rented 16.5% 359/575
Social rented 15.7% 260/575
White 80.2% 405/575
Black 6.6% 101/575
Asian 8.6% 182/575
Managerial & professional 36.9% 178/575
Routine & Semi-routine 21.8% 350/575
Degree level 34.8% 215/575
No qualifications 15.9% 381/575
Students 6.8% 200/575
Boundary Changes
Buckingham & Bletchley consists of
42.4% of Milton Keynes South
39.6% of Buckingham
Map
boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/9bc0b2ea-7915-4997-9d4a-3e313c0ceb51/south-east/South%20East_297_Buckingham%20and%20Bletchley_Landscape.pdf
Notional results 2019 on the proposed new boundaries
(Rallings & Thrasher)
| Con | 27912 | 53.1% |
| Lab | 14567 | 27.7% |
| LD | 8118 | 15.4% |
| Grn | 629 | 1.2% |
| Brexit | 508 | 1.0% |
| Oths | 875 | 1.7% |
| Majority | 13345 | 25.4% |
