Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 1:34:39 GMT
The University of Sussex opened in 1961. The Tories got 70% in the 1969 by-election but they declined precipitously after 1979 and have only lost vote share since Thatcher's first victory. It's remarkable. This seat is the UK's answer to San Francisco vis-a-vis the right wing falling off a cliff here. They do still have councillors and in a way it's a bit like a London Borough away from Patcham and Withdean - Tories out of the running, Labour ahead with a few Green patches. The phrase London-on-Sea is bandied about and that's broadly correct for arty farty types who move to the coastal areas of the seat. Brighton Pavilion used to be a popular retirement destination. 'Elephant's graveyard' came to symbolise places where former colonels and other solders retired after colonial wars and then after World War I and World War II. However, while that vibe held true for Worthing and to a lesser extent, Hove, for a while longer than here - it's gone now. Brighton & Hove nowadays has a below average number of over-65s. Indeed, Hove's bowling green closed recently (was it Covid or old farts popping their clogs or both?). I think that this is the most progressive seat in the country and the combined Reform and Tory vote will be sub 10%. They could even see no right wing party hold their deposit here although that's unlikely because the Tories still win council seats in the constituency. However, it's a fascinating seat (not just because the Tories are falling off the cliff here) but because there's a great deal of self-sorting. If you are a graduate working in the media or creative sectors and you studied at Sussex or Brighton Uni then why would you not stay put and try to build a life here. We looked at a flat for around £300,000 in Brighton but the train line annoys me too much. My mum and dad also bought in Preston Park in 1999 (around the time they almost got an offer accepted in Stoke Newington, but the fools bought a house in the arse end of nowhere in Northants, and while that's appreciated nicely, it's not had the 500% rise that (some) Brighton & Hove property has seen in the last 25 years. It'd be a nice retirement fund if we still had it and ideally we'd rent it out to London luvvies. . I suspect that will change next Thursday and to Labour's benefit (I.e. to get the Greens out). There's a first time for everything. The Republicans used to get a decent showing in San Francisco County in Presidential elections until the late 1970s. |
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Post by samtheodoridi on Jun 29, 2024 7:32:16 GMT
The Conservatives have never got below 10,000 votes in Brighton Pavilion. I suspect that will change next Thursday and to Labour's benefit (I.e. to get the Greens out). Is that what Labour are finding on the doorsteps? I get the sense that many generally leftish voters who used to vote for Caroline Lucas may be returning to Labour this time, but Tories are just going to stay at home or vote Reform. It definitely happened in May 2023, at the last City Council election. I can't believe there wouldn't be a similar dynamic in this election. |
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Post by samtheodoridi on Jun 29, 2024 7:34:10 GMT
The Conservatives have never got below 10,000 votes in Brighton Pavilion. I suspect that will change next Thursday and to Labour's benefit (I.e. to get the Greens out). There's a first time for everything. The Republicans used to get a decent showing in San Francisco County in Presidential elections until the late 1970s. Indeed there is a first time for everything, it's just interesting their core vote has remained above 10,000 for so long |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 7:35:37 GMT
There's a first time for everything. The Republicans used to get a decent showing in San Francisco County in Presidential elections until the late 1970s. Indeed there is a first time for everything, it's just interesting their core vote has remained above 10,000 for so long Yeah, but permanent decline since 1979 unlike every other seat in the country is even more noteworthy about Pavilion (and they still have Council seats!). |
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 30, 2024 13:53:36 GMT
I expect the Greens to win, and I don't think that is at all realistic. It is somewhat plausible if we assume the Greens are still benefiting from yet more gentrification in Brighton, but it does seem a bit high for Reform there. It would have been perfectly plausible if Caroline Lucas had not been standing down. But it is not plausible with a new candidate - no matter how well we portray Sian as the continuity Caroline Lucas. |
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 3, 2024 12:50:55 GMT
The Labour equivalent has appeared to Dale’s ‘I hate Tunbridge Wells’
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 3, 2024 14:31:46 GMT
Richard Tice used the phrase "offence archaeology" the other week. Which is what half this stuff seems to be.
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Ports
Non-Aligned
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Post by Ports on Jul 3, 2024 14:54:28 GMT
Richard Tice used the phrase "offence archaeology" the other week. Which is what half this stuff seems to be. I'm noting that one down for later use. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Jul 5, 2024 8:08:00 GMT
The University of Sussex opened in 1961. The Tories got 70% in the 1969 by-election but they declined precipitously after 1979 and have only lost vote share since Thatcher's first victory. It's remarkable. This seat is the UK's answer to San Francisco vis-a-vis the right wing falling off a cliff here. They do still have councillors and in a way it's a bit like a London Borough away from Patcham and Withdean - Tories out of the running, Labour ahead with a few Green patches. The phrase London-on-Sea is bandied about and that's broadly correct for arty farty types who move to the coastal areas of the seat. Brighton Pavilion used to be a popular retirement destination. 'Elephant's graveyard' came to symbolise places where former colonels and other solders retired after colonial wars and then after World War I and World War II. However, while that vibe held true for Worthing and to a lesser extent, Hove, for a while longer than here - it's gone now. Brighton & Hove nowadays has a below average number of over-65s. Indeed, Hove's bowling green closed recently (was it Covid or old farts popping their clogs or both?). I think that this is the most progressive seat in the country and the combined Reform and Tory vote will be sub 10%. They could even see no right wing party hold their deposit here although that's unlikely because the Tories still win council seats in the constituency. However, it's a fascinating seat (not just because the Tories are falling off the cliff here) but because there's a great deal of self-sorting. If you are a graduate working in the media or creative sectors and you studied at Sussex or Brighton Uni then why would you not stay put and try to build a life here. We looked at a flat for around £300,000 in Brighton but the train line annoys me too much. My mum and dad also bought in Preston Park in 1999 (around the time they almost got an offer accepted in Stoke Newington, but the fools bought a house in the arse end of nowhere in Northants, and while that's appreciated nicely, it's not had the 500% rise that (some) Brighton & Hove property has seen in the last 25 years. It'd be a nice retirement fund if we still had it and ideally we'd rent it out to London luvvies. The Conservatives have never got below 10,000 votes in Brighton Pavilion. I suspect that will change next Thursday and to Labour's benefit (I.e. to get the Greens out). ahahahahaha. hahahhaa.hahaha |
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jul 5, 2024 16:31:53 GMT
Declaration
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 16:32:22 GMT
I still think Eddie Izzard would have got much closer here. Much more likeable and funny as a person.
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Post by Johncrane on Jul 13, 2024 20:28:31 GMT
This result pretty much kills any hope that Labour will win here for the foreseeable future. They had a lot of stuff going for them like the fact that a popular incumbent was retiring, the greens being not so popular on a local level, the fact that the tory vote collapsed potentially allowing for tactical voting against the greens, there was even that "controversy" about sian berry stepping down from the london assembly days after winning it. (Although the outrage felt manufactured to me). In the end they barely ate into the green vote at all. I wonder how seriously they targeted it?
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right
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Post by right on Jul 15, 2024 10:14:45 GMT
This result pretty much kills any hope that Labour will win here for the foreseeable future. They had a lot of stuff going for them like the fact that a popular incumbent was retiring, the greens being not so popular on a local level, the fact that the tory vote collapsed potentially allowing for tactical voting against the greens, there was even that "controversy" about sian berry stepping down from the london assembly days after winning it. (Although the outrage felt manufactured to me). In the end they barely ate into the green vote at all. I wonder how seriously they targeted it? Keir visited at least once |
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