stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 23:36:13 GMT
Brighton Pavilion
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Post by John Chanin on Mar 17, 2024 10:18:42 GMT
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joe
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Post by joe on Mar 20, 2024 20:10:39 GMT
so will Siân Berry be able to hold this seat for the greens or will labour win it back
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right
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Post by right on Mar 21, 2024 8:53:31 GMT
so will Siân Berry be able to hold this seat for the greens or will labour win it back She's so London, and apparently wants to go for the London Assembly next year. If I were Labour I'd be merciless on that, particularly as their Gray man has been in Brighton for quarter of a century. labourlist.org/2023/12/brighton-pavilion-candidate-tom-gray-labour-eddie-izzard/It's understandable that they ran Lucas in 2010, it was a gamble that paid off and probably got a lot of Green money and manpower into that seat. It's odd that a party that prides itself on localism couldn't find a Brighton based candidate to take over from Caroline Lucas. Labour really were wise not to go for Eddie Izzard. The "misgendering"* arguments on this thread would have been a bloody nightmare. *Are quotation marks allowed? |
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YL
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Post by YL on Mar 21, 2024 9:05:59 GMT
so will Siân Berry be able to hold this seat for the greens or will labour win it back Very hard to judge without being on the ground, I think, but my guess is a Green hold. |
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Post by batman on Mar 21, 2024 9:45:49 GMT
I'd say a Green hold is probably the likeliest outcome, but with a substantially reduced majority.
I have a very good friend in this constituency who is a floater mostly between Labour & Green. She voted for Lucas certainly in 2019 & 2017 if not before. She voted Labour in the local elections last year, displeased with the Green-led council, and is very positive about Tom Gray; I think she will go Labour in the general election now, and probably her husband too. She wouldn't in all likelihood have felt able to vote for Eddie Izzard.
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Post by kevinf on Mar 21, 2024 19:12:10 GMT
The Greens are going to put massive resources into this seat. They really can’t afford to lose their only seat.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 22, 2024 10:42:29 GMT
I don't have any exclusive insight into the constituency or the campaigns, but purely on generalities I'd be somewhat surprised if the Greens lose this to Labour.
The B&H Green party is still pretty huge, and will also be able to draw in resources from nearby areas - and the Greens have been growing around Sussex quite successfuly recently.
The B&H Greens have a lot of energy to draw on following the trouncing they took from Labour in the last council elections - and the Labour administration haven't been covering themselves in glory since.
And finally, I think the Labour/Green voters are a really high-info electorate. I think many who would vote Labour elsewhere will come out for the Greens on the basis that they will know this is the Greens only current parliamentary representation, and will want to support that remaining.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 22, 2024 10:51:37 GMT
The Greens are going to put massive resources into this seat. They really can’t afford to lose their only seat. I agree with those who see a Green hold as likeliest here, but there has to be a non-negligible chance that they lose Pavilion but gain a seat (or even seats!) elsewhere. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Mar 22, 2024 12:46:29 GMT
I don't have any exclusive insight into the constituency or the campaigns, but purely on generalities I'd be somewhat surprised if the Greens lose this to Labour. The B&H Green party is still pretty huge, and will also be able to draw in resources from nearby areas - and the Greens have been growing around Sussex quite successfuly recently. The B&H Greens have a lot of energy to draw on following the trouncing they took from Labour in the last council elections - and the Labour administration haven't been covering themselves in glory since. And finally, I think the Labour/Green voters are a really high-info electorate. I think many who would vote Labour elsewhere will come out for the Greens on the basis that they will know this is the Greens only current parliamentary representation, and will want to support that remaining. I tend to agree with this (and, besides, the Green majority is big enough that a handover should be *relatively* secure), but do you think local Green parties nearby will be disciplined enough to meaningfully help? Obviously the Lib Dems are often the same (hence my question!) in having local parties obsessively focussing on their own area - will the Lewes Greens (as an example) come and help in Brighton for more than a couple of weekends, or will they be delusionally wasting their time thinking the Greens can gain another seat / set themselves up for next time? |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 22, 2024 13:53:57 GMT
I don't have any exclusive insight into the constituency or the campaigns, but purely on generalities I'd be somewhat surprised if the Greens lose this to Labour. The B&H Green party is still pretty huge, and will also be able to draw in resources from nearby areas - and the Greens have been growing around Sussex quite successfuly recently. The B&H Greens have a lot of energy to draw on following the trouncing they took from Labour in the last council elections - and the Labour administration haven't been covering themselves in glory since. And finally, I think the Labour/Green voters are a really high-info electorate. I think many who would vote Labour elsewhere will come out for the Greens on the basis that they will know this is the Greens only current parliamentary representation, and will want to support that remaining. I tend to agree with this (and, besides, the Green majority is big enough that a handover should be *relatively* secure), but do you think local Green parties nearby will be disciplined enough to meaningfully help? Obviously the Lib Dems are often the same (hence my question!) in having local parties obsessively focussing on their own area - will the Lewes Greens (as an example) come and help in Brighton for more than a couple of weekends, or will they be delusionally wasting their time thinking the Greens can gain another seat / set themselves up for next time? I don't know the Lewes Greens that well, but most of the Greens I know from both West and East Sussex are well aware of the need to keep Pavilion, and are very keen to help. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 22, 2024 14:12:01 GMT
The Greens are going to put massive resources into this seat. They really can’t afford to lose their only seat. I agree with those who see a Green hold as likeliest here, but there has to be a non-negligible chance that they lose Pavilion but gain a seat (or even seats!) elsewhere. Where though? Bristol Central is unlikely to be at risk with Thangam on the ballot. Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire are very safely Conservative, and whilst they are exactly the sort of places that want the Greens' local offering on the local council (no house building, anywhere, ever), they are highly unlikely to want the Greens' national offering in parliament (I can't off the top of my head remember their fourth target. Oh, and, no, they are not winning Stroud). |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Mar 25, 2024 22:11:45 GMT
It's understandable that they ran Lucas in 2010, it was a gamble that paid off and probably got a lot of Green money and manpower into that seat. It's odd that a party that prides itself on localism couldn't find a Brighton based candidate to take over from Caroline Lucas. Considering their recent poor performance in local elections in Brighton, having a Green candidate who doesn't have ties to Brighton may have been a wise decision. I would certainly say that Siân Berry is a stronger candidate than, for example, Phélim Mac Cafferty... |
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right
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Post by right on Mar 26, 2024 6:31:42 GMT
It's understandable that they ran Lucas in 2010, it was a gamble that paid off and probably got a lot of Green money and manpower into that seat. It's odd that a party that prides itself on localism couldn't find a Brighton based candidate to take over from Caroline Lucas. Considering their recent poor performance in local elections in Brighton, having a Green candidate who doesn't have ties to Brighton may have been a wise decision. I would certainly say that Siân Berry is a stronger candidate than, for example, Phélim Mac Cafferty... Itself a giant problem. Makes the co-leader's decision to go there look brave rather than selfish. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 26, 2024 7:31:36 GMT
It's understandable that they ran Lucas in 2010, it was a gamble that paid off and probably got a lot of Green money and manpower into that seat. It's odd that a party that prides itself on localism couldn't find a Brighton based candidate to take over from Caroline Lucas. Considering their recent poor performance in local elections in Brighton, having a Green candidate who doesn't have ties to Brighton may have been a wise decision. I would certainly say that Siân Berry is a stronger candidate than, for example, Phélim Mac Cafferty... Than the famous Irish dentist? |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 26, 2024 7:32:45 GMT
I agree with those who see a Green hold as likeliest here, but there has to be a non-negligible chance that they lose Pavilion but gain a seat (or even seats!) elsewhere. Where though? Bristol Central is unlikely to be at risk with Thangam on the ballot. Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire are very safely Conservative, and whilst they are exactly the sort of places that want the Greens' local offering on the local council (no house building, anywhere, ever), they are highly unlikely to want the Greens' national offering in parliament (I can't off the top of my head remember their fourth target. Oh, and, no, they are not winning Stroud). Nor Bury St Edmunds and the Wights. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 26, 2024 12:06:22 GMT
I think the Green presence in Mid Suffolk is entrenched enough that they could make a serious attempt at a parliamentary seat, but in practice the boundaries are far from helpful for them. I think if the Norfolk-Suffolk crossing had been at Thetford rather than at Diss then the boundaries that would have resulted from that would have been much more advantageous for the Greens (and incidentally much worse for the Tories.)
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Sg1
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Post by Sg1 on Mar 26, 2024 13:22:34 GMT
Where though? Bristol Central is unlikely to be at risk with Thangam on the ballot. Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire are very safely Conservative, and whilst they are exactly the sort of places that want the Greens' local offering on the local council (no house building, anywhere, ever), they are highly unlikely to want the Greens' national offering in parliament (I can't off the top of my head remember their fourth target. Oh, and, no, they are not winning Stroud). Nor Bury St Edmunds and the Wights. Well, don't Diss them until they've tried it. |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 26, 2024 14:50:48 GMT
Nor Bury St Edmunds and the Wights. Well, don't Diss them until they've tried it. Ahh! Eye see what you mean. We don't Needham, do we? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 26, 2024 15:39:07 GMT
Well, don't Diss them until they've tried it. Ahh! Eye see what you mean. We don't Needham, do we? Would Bridge be a better hobby? |
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