Brighton Pavilion

[greenchristian]

Jun 22, 2024 15:59:30 GMT tonyhil said:

I reported getting a generic A5 Labour leaflet in Winchester yesterday, but now I look at it again I see it is addressed to my son-in-law, his son and my grandson - and has been forwarded from the address they have recently moved from in Brighton Pavilion. I find this astonishing in a seat that I presume they are contesting seriously.

It's not that astonishing. It's quite common for people to neglect to inform electoral services that they are moving out of their old address - especially if they are moving out of the council area rather than within it. Even if they did inform them, there's always going to be a delay between that notification and the electoral roll updates being sent to political parties. So it's entirely plausible that Labour didn't know your relatives had moved at the point they printed the freepost.

[tonyhil]

Apologies if I didn't make myself clear: what I find astonishing is that Labour are using a Royal Mail delivery in a target seat to send a piece of A5 without even the candidate's name on it. There is a redirection notice to our address so the Royal Mail did their job properly.

[owainsutton]

Jun 22, 2024 18:13:09 GMT tonyhil said:

Apologies if I didn't make myself clear: what I find astonishing is that Labour are using a Royal Mail delivery in a target seat to send a piece of A5 without even the candidate's name on it. There is a redirection notice to our address so the Royal Mail did their job properly.

Because of spending limits. It'll be being put 100% under national spending, not constituency spending.

[tonyhil]

Ok, thanks - not what I would have used the Freepost for.

[right]

Greens leaning into supermajority and mentioning an endorsement by Thelma Walker:

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19965/

Also not mentioning candidates name for spending limit reasons (and seen this in other places as well)

I've not seen the SNP or Lib Dems do a similar thing here, but as this seems to get some cut through it would be an easy hit if your main opponent is Labour

[Pete Whitehead]

How many different parties is that that Thelma Walker has endorsed now? I don't suppose anyone in Brighton has the slightest clue who she is (aprt from the Brighton based leader of the NIP) - in fact few of us here would know he she was if it wasn't for her embarassing fiasco in Hartlepool. Still the endorsement of loons isn't necessarily going to hurt them in Brighton or Bristol. How are they playing this in North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley though?

[Deleted]

Jun 27, 2024 11:34:12 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

How many different parties is that that Thelma Walker has endorsed now? I don't suppose anyone in Brighton has the slightest clue who she is (aprt from the Brighton based leader of the NIP) - in fact few of us here would know he she was if it wasn't for her embarassing fiasco in Hartlepool. Still the endorsement of loons isn't necessarily going to hurt them in Brighton or Bristol. How are they playing this in North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley though?

A broad Pavilion party?

[right]

Jun 27, 2024 11:34:12 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

How many different parties is that that Thelma Walker has endorsed now? I don't suppose anyone in Brighton has the slightest clue who she is (aprt from the Brighton based leader of the NIP) - in fact few of us here would know he she was if it wasn't for her embarassing fiasco in Hartlepool. Still the endorsement of loons isn't necessarily going to hurt them in Brighton or Bristol. How are they playing this in North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley though?

Clare Short is quite a good endorsement though

If they've got good voter ID that could be quite a good one to send to Labour or even Liberal loyalists or waverers, but agreed better just pretend it's about organic farming and small businesses to the ordinary voters in the rural seats.

[Deleted]

"EdDiE iZzArD wOuLd HaVe WoN"

[right]

Jun 27, 2024 23:16:14 GMT @weld said:

"EdDiE iZzArD wOuLd HaVe WoN"

Labour just need to wait for the next MRP poll

Has the Labour vote ever been as low as 19%?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

An MRP is not going to tell you a lot about how this constituency is going. It's the only area where the Green Party has won, and there has never been a previous case of an incumbent Green MP standing down. How voters will react to that is not going to be captured by even the best conducted nationwide MRP. The MRP result simply tells you the effect of the assumptions put in by the pollster.

(A constituency poll would tell something.)

[jamesdoyle]

Jun 27, 2024 23:16:14 GMT @weld said:

"EdDiE iZzArD wOuLd HaVe WoN"

I expect the Greens to win, and I don't think that is at all realistic.

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2024 9:42:38 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Jun 27, 2024 23:16:14 GMT @weld said:

"EdDiE iZzArD wOuLd HaVe WoN"

I expect the Greens to win, and I don't think that is at all realistic.

It is somewhat plausible if we assume the Greens are still benefiting from yet more gentrification in Brighton, but it does seem a bit high for Reform there.  

[graham]

For many years this was Julian Amery's seat. What has caused Tory support to collapse to the extent it has?

[jamesdoyle]

Jun 28, 2024 12:57:34 GMT @weld said:

Jun 28, 2024 9:42:38 GMT jamesdoyle said:

I expect the Greens to win, and I don't think that is at all realistic.

It is somewhat plausible if we assume the Greens are still benefiting from yet more gentrification in Brighton, but it does seem a bit high for Reform there.  

I would love the Greens to win like that in Pavilion - but it simply *isn't* plausible.

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2024 13:09:59 GMT graham said:

For many years this was Julian Amery's seat. What has caused Tory support to collapse to the extent it has?

The University of Sussex opened in 1961. The Tories got 70% in the 1969 by-election but they declined precipitously after 1979 and have only lost vote share since Thatcher's first victory. It's remarkable. This seat is the UK's answer to San Francisco vis-a-vis the right wing falling off a cliff here. They do still have councillors and in a way it's a bit like a London Borough away from Patcham and Withdean - Tories out of the running, Labour ahead with a few Green patches. The phrase London-on-Sea is bandied about and that's broadly correct for arty farty types who move to the coastal areas of the seat. Brighton Pavilion used to be a popular retirement destination. 'Elephant's graveyard' came to symbolise places where former colonels and other solders retired after colonial wars and then after World War I and World War II. However, while that vibe held true for Worthing and to a lesser extent, Hove, for a while longer than here - it's gone now. Brighton & Hove nowadays has a below average number of over-65s. Indeed, Hove's bowling green closed recently (was it Covid or old farts popping their clogs or both?). I think that this is the most progressive seat in the country and the combined Reform and Tory vote will be sub 10%. They could even see no right wing party hold their deposit here although that's unlikely because the Tories still win council seats in the constituency. However, it's a fascinating seat (not just because the Tories are falling off the cliff here) but because there's a great deal of self-sorting. If you are a graduate working in the media or creative sectors and you studied at Sussex or Brighton Uni then why would you not stay put and try to build a life here. We looked at a flat for around £300,000 in Brighton but the train line annoys me too much. My mum and dad also bought in Preston Park in 1999 (around the time they almost got an offer accepted in Stoke Newington, but the fools bought a house in the arse end of nowhere in Northants, and while that's appreciated nicely, it's not had the 500% rise that (some) Brighton & Hove property has seen in the last 25 years. It'd be a nice retirement fund if we still had it and ideally we'd rent it out to London luvvies.

[samtheodoridi]

Jun 28, 2024 15:49:59 GMT @weld said:

Jun 28, 2024 13:09:59 GMT graham said:

For many years this was Julian Amery's seat. What has caused Tory support to collapse to the extent it has?

The University of Sussex opened in 1961. The Tories got 70% in the 1969 by-election but they declined precipitously after 1979 and have only lost vote share since Thatcher's first victory. It's remarkable. This seat is the UK's answer to San Francisco vis-a-vis the right wing falling off a cliff here. They do still have councillors and in a way it's a bit like a London Borough away from Patcham and Withdean - Tories out of the running, Labour ahead with a few Green patches. The phrase London-on-Sea is bandied about and that's broadly correct for arty farty types who move to the coastal areas of the seat. Brighton Pavilion used to be a popular retirement destination. 'Elephant's graveyard' came to symbolise places where former colonels and other solders retired after colonial wars and then after World War I and World War II. However, while that vibe held true for Worthing and to a lesser extent, Hove, for a while longer than here - it's gone now. Brighton & Hove nowadays has a below average number of over-65s. Indeed, Hove's bowling green closed recently (was it Covid or old farts popping their clogs or both?). I think that this is the most progressive seat in the country and the combined Reform and Tory vote will be sub 10%. They could even see no right wing party hold their deposit here although that's unlikely because the Tories still win council seats in the constituency. However, it's a fascinating seat (not just because the Tories are falling off the cliff here) but because there's a great deal of self-sorting. If you are a graduate working in the media or creative sectors and you studied at Sussex or Brighton Uni then why would you not stay put and try to build a life here. We looked at a flat for around £300,000 in Brighton but the train line annoys me too much. My mum and dad also bought in Preston Park in 1999 (around the time they almost got an offer accepted in Stoke Newington, but the fools bought a house in the arse end of nowhere in Northants, and while that's appreciated nicely, it's not had the 500% rise that (some) Brighton & Hove property has seen in the last 25 years. It'd be a nice retirement fund if we still had it and ideally we'd rent it out to London luvvies.

The Conservatives have never got below 10,000 votes in Brighton Pavilion. I suspect that will change next Thursday and to Labour's benefit (I.e. to get the Greens out).

[john07]

Jun 28, 2024 13:09:59 GMT graham said:

For many years this was Julian Amery's seat. What has caused Tory support to collapse to the extent it has?

His voters will mostly be dead by now?

[batman]

Although John's remark is flippant, it's actually not really untrue. The age profile getting younger & younger is one of the principal reasons why the Tories have weakened so hugely in most of the South Coast seats with BN postcodes. The extremely poor record of Amery as a constituency MP gave the process a head start though - in Kemptown Andrew Bowden who held that seat from 1970 until his defeat in 1997 was a very good & adaptable constituency MP and it's taken just a little longer there for the Tories to achieve the irrelevance they have in Pavilion (except in the far north-west of the constituency). I voted against Amery in 1983 & I'm still alive - as thankfully is the man I voted for, Labour's Harry Spillman, who remains a friend today but not one I see often as he now lives in the North-West (ironically in Preston - when he lived in this constituency he also lived in Preston!). Oddly coincidentally, Harry's real first name is Harold, as was that of Julian Amery; Amery did the opposite of Harry - he used to represent Preston North in parliament, lost that to Labour in 1966, and then in 1969 became the MP for the Brighton constituency which includes Preston. Also they both have or had Jewish heritage.

[wickofthesouth]

Jun 28, 2024 17:47:09 GMT samtheodoridi said:

Jun 28, 2024 15:49:59 GMT @weld said:

The University of Sussex opened in 1961. The Tories got 70% in the 1969 by-election but they declined precipitously after 1979 and have only lost vote share since Thatcher's first victory. It's remarkable. This seat is the UK's answer to San Francisco vis-a-vis the right wing falling off a cliff here. They do still have councillors and in a way it's a bit like a London Borough away from Patcham and Withdean - Tories out of the running, Labour ahead with a few Green patches. The phrase London-on-Sea is bandied about and that's broadly correct for arty farty types who move to the coastal areas of the seat. Brighton Pavilion used to be a popular retirement destination. 'Elephant's graveyard' came to symbolise places where former colonels and other solders retired after colonial wars and then after World War I and World War II. However, while that vibe held true for Worthing and to a lesser extent, Hove, for a while longer than here - it's gone now. Brighton & Hove nowadays has a below average number of over-65s. Indeed, Hove's bowling green closed recently (was it Covid or old farts popping their clogs or both?). I think that this is the most progressive seat in the country and the combined Reform and Tory vote will be sub 10%. They could even see no right wing party hold their deposit here although that's unlikely because the Tories still win council seats in the constituency. However, it's a fascinating seat (not just because the Tories are falling off the cliff here) but because there's a great deal of self-sorting. If you are a graduate working in the media or creative sectors and you studied at Sussex or Brighton Uni then why would you not stay put and try to build a life here. We looked at a flat for around £300,000 in Brighton but the train line annoys me too much. My mum and dad also bought in Preston Park in 1999 (around the time they almost got an offer accepted in Stoke Newington, but the fools bought a house in the arse end of nowhere in Northants, and while that's appreciated nicely, it's not had the 500% rise that (some) Brighton & Hove property has seen in the last 25 years. It'd be a nice retirement fund if we still had it and ideally we'd rent it out to London luvvies.

The Conservatives have never got below 10,000 votes in Brighton Pavilion. I suspect that will change next Thursday and to Labour's benefit (I.e. to get the Greens out).

Is that what Labour are finding on the doorsteps?

I get the sense that many generally leftish voters who used to vote for Caroline Lucas may be returning to Labour this time, but Tories are just going to stay at home or vote Reform.