stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 23:14:58 GMT
Stretford and Urmston
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 7, 2024 16:57:38 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 7, 2024 18:17:25 GMT
A lot of familiar names there. The Tory candidate, Mark Cornes, is a great bloke - we went to primary school together and knew each other when we were active in the local party. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 7, 2024 19:24:36 GMT
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Post by owainsutton on Jun 7, 2024 19:28:49 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jun 7, 2024 21:48:17 GMT
The Orkers Arty of Reat Ritain doesn’t have a candidate, mainly because it doesn’t exist. The Orkers Arty of Ritain does have a candidate, albeit with a pompous and contradictory description. |
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Aug 21, 2024 15:02:07 GMT
Following on from the discussion in the Stockport thread, does anyone here have any idea why Labour's result here was as bad as it ended up being? (it was certainly much worse than their result there, especially once all is considered, and in a significantly more similar constituency than Preston)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 21, 2024 17:26:32 GMT
Following on from the discussion in the Stockport thread, does anyone here have any idea why Labour's result here was as bad as it ended up being? (it was certainly much worse than their result there, especially once all is considered, and in a significantly more similar constituency than Preston) The Workers Party intervention would seem to explain a lot of it, and that can be presumably assigned to Old Trafford. I'd put money on the Reform vote being heavily concentrated in Flixton and Lostock. The surprise Lib Dem strength- not sure. I'm aware of some grumbling about the council favouring Altrincham and Sale, but this has been the familiar refrain in Urmston since about 1977. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,025
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Post by nyx on Aug 21, 2024 18:25:19 GMT
The surprise Lib Dem strength Surprise strength? They lost their deposit. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 21, 2024 18:46:11 GMT
The surprise Lib Dem strength Surprise strength? They lost their deposit. I was surprised given how bad their performance was in the by-election, where there wasn't exactly a need for their vote to be squeezed. |
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Post by Johncrane on Aug 21, 2024 18:46:45 GMT
Following on from the discussion in the Stockport thread, does anyone here have any idea why Labour's result here was as bad as it ended up being? (it was certainly much worse than their result there, especially once all is considered, and in a significantly more similar constituency than Preston) The Workers Party intervention would seem to explain a lot of it, and that can be presumably assigned to Old Trafford. I'd put money on the Reform vote being heavily concentrated in Flixton and Lostock. The surprise Lib Dem strength- not sure. I'm aware of some grumbling about the council favouring Altrincham and Sale, but this has been the familiar refrain in Urmston since about 1977. The Muslim population in this constituency is only 13% and the Muslim electorate is even smaller. When you compare it with other seats with a similar Muslim percentage, you can see this candidate overperformed. She must have gotten decent amount of cross community support but I suppose only someone local is going know the details. I see she’s a doctor maybe that helped? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 21, 2024 19:23:56 GMT
The Workers Party intervention would seem to explain a lot of it, and that can be presumably assigned to Old Trafford. I'd put money on the Reform vote being heavily concentrated in Flixton and Lostock. The surprise Lib Dem strength- not sure. I'm aware of some grumbling about the council favouring Altrincham and Sale, but this has been the familiar refrain in Urmston since about 1977. The Muslim population in this constituency is only 13% and the Muslim electorate is even smaller. When you compare it with other seats with a similar Muslim percentage, you can see this candidate overperformed. She must have gotten decent amount of cross community support but I suppose only someone local is going know the details. I see she’s a doctor maybe that helped? I'll ask around my usual contacts but I'd put money on her attracting little attention in Urmston at least. Googling shows she is a doctor but not where- presumably she's at the hospitals and not a GP. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Aug 21, 2024 20:10:38 GMT
The Muslim population in this constituency is only 13% and the Muslim electorate is even smaller. When you compare it with other seats with a similar Muslim percentage, you can see this candidate overperformed. She must have gotten decent amount of cross community support but I suppose only someone local is going know the details. I see she’s a doctor maybe that helped? I'll ask around my usual contacts but I'd put money on her attracting little attention in Urmston at least. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 23, 2024 10:00:19 GMT
Despite the Labour share falling from nearly 70% at the 2022 byelection to less than half now, the Tories still somehow managed to also drop their percentage vote since then - their decline in these parts really does seem to be absolutely relentless.
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Post by owainsutton on Aug 23, 2024 14:49:44 GMT
Ignore the by-election, where a rock-bottom December turnout gives spurious percentages. Compare with 2019, and the Tory vote splintered to Reform while a Labour bloc went to WPGB/Green. (Also note that Old Trafford saw over 1k Green votes in the locals.)
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Post by thirdchill on Aug 23, 2024 15:31:43 GMT
Ignore the by-election, where a rock-bottom December turnout gives spurious percentages. Compare with 2019, and the Tory vote splintered to Reform while a Labour bloc went to WPGB/Green. (Also note that Old Trafford saw over 1k Green votes in the locals.) Will the Greens in Trafford towards more active campaigns around the Old Trafford wards at the coming local elections within the next few years, given that labour are now in government (and so may be potentially more vulnerable in some local election cycles). I presume you will be wanting to make sure that the Greens are at least a clear second time around in these areas at the minimum. |
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Post by owainsutton on Aug 23, 2024 15:33:44 GMT
Ignore the by-election, where a rock-bottom December turnout gives spurious percentages. Compare with 2019, and the Tory vote splintered to Reform while a Labour bloc went to WPGB/Green. (Also note that Old Trafford saw over 1k Green votes in the locals.) Will the Greens in Trafford towards more active campaigns around the Old Trafford wards at the coming local elections within the next few years, given that labour are now in government (and so may be potentially more vulnerable in some local election cycles). I presume you will be wanting to make sure that the Greens are at least a clear second time around in these areas at the minimum. I appreciate you avoiding using question marks, which means I don't need to give an answer. 😉 |
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
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Post by bsjmcr on Aug 24, 2024 8:13:52 GMT
Despite the Labour share falling from nearly 70% at the 2022 byelection to less than half now, the Tories still somehow managed to also drop their percentage vote since then - their decline in these parts does seem to be absolutely relentless. I think there are growing similarities with Manchester Withington, a lot of the old lower middle class areas of Urmston are now very much trending to Didsbury style middle classes. And whilst the Grammar Schools here are an attraction that were perhaps previously linked with (Trafford borough) conservatism, perhaps they are now just local institutions that happen to be part of the furniture, not really a political football given other pressing issues such as the NHS - don’t forget, this seat symbolically has the first NHS hospital in it - which no longer has a proper A&E. |
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Post by batman on Aug 24, 2024 9:51:05 GMT
Certainly Urmston was a Tory town when I was a student. We had a night out of Manchester-based King's College students and picked one of them up from her house in Urmston. She was a Mrs Thatcher fan, probably still is.
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Post by owainsutton on Aug 24, 2024 16:08:37 GMT
Very much that demographic shift. Younger people who, previously, might have been able to get onto the property ladder in Chorlton or Withington. Plus the next generation from those who did that.
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