john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774 
|
Post by john07 on Aug 24, 2024 18:37:09 GMT
Very much that demographic shift. Younger people who, previously, might have been able to get onto the property ladder in Chorlton or Withington. Plus the next generation from those who did that. This is mirrored by the Heatons and Davenport in Stockport. When local government was reorganised in 1972-3, Stockport and to a lesser extent, Trafford were marked as solid Conservative. Now there isn’t a single Tory on Stockport MDC. |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Aug 25, 2024 7:10:26 GMT
Very much that demographic shift. Younger people who, previously, might have been able to get onto the property ladder in Chorlton or Withington. Plus the next generation from those who did that. These days with mortgage payments costing more than rent, alongside crazy stamp duty I think the concept of a ladder is dead. You are better off renting something shite until going straight in to a forever house. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 25, 2024 17:53:21 GMT
Despite the Labour share falling from nearly 70% at the 2022 byelection to less than half now, the Tories still somehow managed to also drop their percentage vote since then - their decline in these parts does seem to be absolutely relentless. I think there are growing similarities with Manchester Withington, a lot of the old lower middle class areas of Urmston are now very much trending to Didsbury style middle classes. And whilst the Grammar Schools here are an attraction that were perhaps previously linked with (Trafford borough) conservatism, perhaps they are now just local institutions that happen to be part of the furniture, not really a political football given other pressing issues such as the NHS - don’t forget, this seat symbolically has the first NHS hospital in it - which no longer has a proper A&E. Although it should be noted that the A&E now is over at Hope, which is probably much better and more modern. Park Hospital is a very old building that was probably falling apart when I was born there several decades ago! |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 25, 2024 18:00:21 GMT
Certainly Urmston was a Tory town when I was a student. We had a night out of Manchester-based King's College students and picked one of them up from her house in Urmston. She was a Mrs Thatcher fan, probably still is. I won't repeat what I've said too much, but the key thing to remember is that Urmston had two unusual features: 1. It was a cheap place to aim for people trading up from the inner city. This often brought Conservative-voting types who refreshed the activist base. 2. The sheer volume of employment in Trafford Park made it a closed world, with everyone from the factory floor to the bosses living near each other . The local Conservative party arguably functioned as a sort of Urmston version of the Japanese LDP! There was a strong Tory Worker contingent and they tended to control the local party. That was still the case until ten years. But house prices killed off one, and changing work demographics killed off the other. It's not the same town, it's not the same population. However, it's the same people trying to keep the Tories going now who were doing it ten years ago, with nobody to come in and help. |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Aug 25, 2024 18:22:19 GMT
Certainly Urmston was a Tory town when I was a student. We had a night out of Manchester-based King's College students and picked one of them up from her house in Urmston. She was a Mrs Thatcher fan, probably still is. I won't repeat what I've said too much, but the key thing to remember is that Urmston had two unusual features: 1. It was a cheap place to aim for people trading up from the inner city. This often brought Conservative-voting types who refreshed the activist base. 2. The sheer volume of employment in Trafford Park made it a closed world, with everyone from the factory floor to the bosses living near each other . The local Conservative party arguably functioned as a sort of Urmston version of the Japanese LDP! There was a strong Tory Worker contingent and they tended to control the local party. That was still the case until ten years. But house prices killed off one, and changing work demographics killed off the other. It's not the same town, it's not the same population. However, it's the same people trying to keep the Tories going now who were doing it ten years ago, with nobody to come in and help. In my experience the moment when living somewhere is financially totally irrational for families is the moment when the right begins to struggle as the incomers become either disgruntled renters or people consciously moving there for some kind of (usually urban) lifestyle. Where I grew up (Jesmond) this process had already happened by my early childhood. Any self respecting Tory is going to get their value for money in Cramlington or the Tyne Valley rather than spend a million plus for a semi on Newcastle because you can get an artisan loaf. My parents generation are basically the last people who could buy there without a monster salary or rich parents. And they are already retired. |
|
|
|
Post by owainsutton on Aug 27, 2024 17:52:40 GMT
Very much that demographic shift. Younger people who, previously, might have been able to get onto the property ladder in Chorlton or Withington. Plus the next generation from those who did that. These days with mortgage payments costing more than rent, alongside crazy stamp duty I think the concept of a ladder is dead. You are better off renting something shite until going straight in to a forever house. Good point. So really, it's people whose parents were able to establish a forever-home in those other places, now making Urmston etc. their forever-home. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 27, 2024 18:01:56 GMT
These days with mortgage payments costing more than rent, alongside crazy stamp duty I think the concept of a ladder is dead. You are better off renting something shite until going straight in to a forever house. Good point. So really, it's people whose parents were able to establish a forever-home in those other places, now making Urmston etc. their forever-home. And ironically, if you grew up in Urmston etc, you can't afford it! |
|
|
|
Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Aug 28, 2024 7:28:44 GMT
These days with mortgage payments costing more than rent, alongside crazy stamp duty I think the concept of a ladder is dead. You are better off renting something shite until going straight in to a forever house. Good point. So really, it's people whose parents were able to establish a forever-home in those other places, now making Urmston etc. their forever-home. Awful term forever-home as its a blatent lie, as if it's not going to be sold on as one's life dictates it. |
|
