stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366 
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Southport
Mar 13, 2024 23:12:05 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 23:12:05 GMT
Southport
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 15, 2024 10:12:59 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 18, 2024 22:48:02 GMT
The truly deluded self-belief of candidates based on "people from across the movement" calling for them to stand is alarming. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299
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Post by maxque on Apr 18, 2024 22:53:24 GMT
The truly deluded self-belief of candidates based on "people from across the movement" calling for them to stand is alarming. Well, maybe it wouldn't happen if those people were defeated in a selection and people could see it, rather than the NEC imposing its views. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Southport
Apr 18, 2024 22:59:03 GMT
via mobile
Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 18, 2024 22:59:03 GMT
The truly deluded self-belief of candidates based on "people from across the movement" calling for them to stand is alarming. Well, maybe it wouldn't happen if those people were defeated in a selection and people could see it, rather than the NEC imposing its views. Not disagreeing, just believe that people fool themselves when others offer comforting words. |
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 7, 2024 15:38:19 GMT
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,762
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Post by right on Jun 7, 2024 15:41:15 GMT
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Post by philvn on Jun 24, 2024 6:12:56 GMT
Plenty of Labour posters on the way in from Ormskirk. Quite a few Lib Dems too, but no Conservatives.
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Post by nigelashton on Jun 24, 2024 11:06:22 GMT
Plenty of Labour posters on the way in from Ormskirk. Quite a few Lib Dems too, but no Conservatives. I've only seen one Conservative poster in Southport itself. There are quite a few in the Northern Parishes, mainly in fields around Banks. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 29, 2024 23:13:34 GMT
Plenty of Labour posters on the way in from Ormskirk. Quite a few Lib Dems too, but no Conservatives. I've only seen one Conservative poster in Southport itself. There are quite a few in the Northern Parishes, mainly in fields around Banks. If it stays Tory, it'll certainly be because of the villages. Probably some of the most dyed-in-the-wool Conservative voters in Lancs. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 7, 2024 2:26:43 GMT
Specially posted for MerseysideMike (assuming he's still on the forum)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 4:36:31 GMT
Specially posted for MerseysideMike (assuming he's still on the forum) is still very much a regular in these parts. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jul 7, 2024 6:33:22 GMT
Very soft Scouse accent there.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 7, 2024 8:11:34 GMT
Specially posted for MerseysideMike (assuming he's still on the forum) is still very much a regular in these parts. Hope so! Patrick Hurley is a nice bloke, he moved to Southport last year, and was a Liverpool councillor. He was involved with a Fabian group. Good result. |
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Southport
Jul 28, 2024 21:54:24 GMT
via mobile
Post by heslingtonian on Jul 28, 2024 21:54:24 GMT
Although Labour got their historic win here, it was a bit of an underwhelming result in terms of numbers with the swing only 10.8%. I wonder whether the Conservatives will ever win this back given Merseyside trends but as of this moment it is still a vaguely marginal seat which they would need to win to return to Government which slightly surprises me.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,053
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Post by jamie on Jul 28, 2024 22:23:51 GMT
Although Labour got their historic win here, it was a bit of an underwhelming result in terms of numbers with the swing only 10.8%. I wonder whether the Conservatives will ever win this back given Merseyside trends but as of this moment it is still a vaguely marginal seat which they would need to win to return to Government which slightly surprises me. That swing is without accounting for the boundary changes. The notional swing is estimated to be 13.2%. |
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Southport
Jul 29, 2024 4:36:05 GMT
via mobile
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 29, 2024 4:36:05 GMT
Merseymike is still very much a regular in these parts. Hope so! Patrick Hurley is a nice bloke, he moved to Southport last year, and was a Liverpool councillor. He was involved with a Fabian group. Good result. There is something oddly poetic about Labour finally winning courtesy of a Fabian. |
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Post by sanders on Jul 29, 2024 5:09:15 GMT
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
Posts: 155
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 29, 2024 11:18:50 GMT
Although Labour got their historic win here, it was a bit of an underwhelming result in terms of numbers with the swing only 10.8%. I wonder whether the Conservatives will ever win this back given Merseyside trends but as of this moment it is still a vaguely marginal seat which they would need to win to return to Government which slightly surprises me. That swing is without accounting for the boundary changes. The notional swing is estimated to be 13.2%.
I would add that a lot of the swing to Labour had already happened in 2017 and 2019, and that all things considered the LDs did alright this time around.
As someone who lives here I would also note that, regardless, the Conservatives did very badly, as I would have expected them to retain a higher proportion of their 2019 vote than in England overall due to the Northern Parishes and bits of Southport itself. Though having a reduced incumbency effect in the former also won't have helped him, I suspect that this will have primarily been due to Damien Moore having a net-negative personal vote. What might have additionally not helped is that I would guess that voting was/is more polarised by age here than in most other places (though this is probably typical for seaside resorts).
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Post by heslingtonian on Jul 29, 2024 13:01:17 GMT
That swing is without accounting for the boundary changes. The notional swing is estimated to be 13.2%.
I would add that a lot of the swing to Labour had already happened in 2017 and 2019, and that all things considered the LDs did alright this time around.
As someone who lives here I would also note that, regardless, the Conservatives did very badly, as I would have expected them to retain a higher proportion of their 2019 vote than in England overall due to the Northern Parishes and bits of Southport itself. Though having a reduced incumbency effect in the former also won't have helped him, I suspect that this will have primarily been due to Damien Moore having a net-negative personal vote. What might have additionally not helped is that I would guess that voting was/is more polarised by age here than in most other places (though this is probably typical for seaside resorts).
Why would Damien Moore have a negative personal vote compared to a generic Conservative MP? Not saying I was a fan especially but he didn't strike me as unusually toxic compared to most of his Parliamentary colleagues. |
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