Liverpool Garston

[stb12]

Liverpool Garston

[birkinabe]

SOPN available from here: liverpool.gov.uk/council/voting-and-elections/parliamentary-election-4th-july-2024/ - Con, Lab, LD, Green, Reform UK, Liberal, Liverpool Community Independents, Workers Revolutionary Party, x1 Independent

[Deleted]

I don't see Gorst doing that well, probably not even as well as Frank Field did in Birkenhead in 2019, but here's how a win would look:

"Community Ind 39%
Labour 33%
Conservative 13%
Reform 5%
Liberal Democrat 4%
Green 2%
Other 4%

Community Ind gain from Labour.

Liverpool has been heading in this direction for a long time, with a mayoral election in the city very close between Labour and independent in recent years. Corbyn was extremely popular here and the Eagles have been representing Merseyside seats for well over 30 years. I do wonder if Gorst would have been better of pursuing some sort of trigger ballot or mandatory reselection vote here. This is probably one of the more Momentum friendly parts of the UK and Liverpool has done different before - electing an Irish Nationalist from 1885 to 1929 and, of course, David Alton in Mossley Hill." Again, unlikely, but Liverpool is a strange place and insular IMHO.

[batman]

Gorst will neither do well nor does he deserve to do well.

[Deleted]

Five reasons I think Gorst will do pretty well here:

1) An independent got 40% of the vote in the 2021 Liverpool Mayoral race
2) Gorst did very well in his ward in the locals, with the LCI winning 2/2
3) The Independents won multiple Liverpool wards, not just Garston
4) Maria Eagle has been MP for 27 years and voter fatigue is a thing
5) It's Liverpool we're talking about, the home of Militant

I'd ideally like to know what locals think, including Merseymike . 

To take part in this discussion, you have to read my post and this article in a Scouse accent: skwawkbox.org/2024/02/21/gorst-launches-campaign-to-oust-eagle-in-garston/.

[rcronald]

Jun 28, 2024 3:17:55 GMT @weld said:

Five reasons I think Gorst will do pretty well here:

1) An independent got 40% of the vote in the 2021 Liverpool Mayoral race
2) Gorst did very well in his ward in the locals, with the LCI winning 2/2
3) The Independents won multiple Liverpool wards, not just Garston
4) Maria Eagle has been MP for 27 years and voter fatigue is a thing
5) It's Liverpool we're talking about, the home of Militant

I'd ideally like to know what locals think, including Merseymike . 

To take part in this discussion, you have to read my post and this article in a Scouse accent: skwawkbox.org/2024/02/21/gorst-launches-campaign-to-oust-eagle-in-garston/.

An independent got 40% of the vote in 2021 because Liverpool Labour was a shitshow. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Khunanup]

Jun 28, 2024 3:17:55 GMT @weld said:

Five reasons I think Gorst will do pretty well here:

1) An independent got 40% of the vote in the 2021 Liverpool Mayoral race
2) Gorst did very well in his ward in the locals, with the LCI winning 2/2
3) The Independents won multiple Liverpool wards, not just Garston
4) Maria Eagle has been MP for 27 years and voter fatigue is a thing
5) It's Liverpool we're talking about, the home of Militant

I'd ideally like to know what locals think, including Merseymike . 

To take part in this discussion, you have to read my post and this article in a Scouse accent: skwawkbox.org/2024/02/21/gorst-launches-campaign-to-oust-eagle-in-garston/.

Liverpool Labour exist in a permanent state of psychodrama and that periodically resolves itself in council elections (the collapse of the Lib Dems post coalition hid that it hadn't actually gone away, a situation that has now become all to evident). If you thought the last elections were a shitshow, just wait for the next one when Labour are in government...

It has almost zero impact on general election performance though.

[Deleted]

If I were running here, I'd change my name to 'Ringo Starr' or 'Paul McCartney' by deed poll to help my chances. Seriously though, Isn't Maria Eagle one of the last of 'Blair's Babes' from 1997? My dad was at uni with the Eagle sisters, another dynasty like the Reeveses and Milibands and Kinnocks. It was good Jack Straw's son wasn't elected in Rossendale & Darwen a few years back. I wonder if, in a selection battle here, Gorst could've won on a left-wing platform. All the Eagles did when Corbyn was leader was whine and bitch about how awful it all was IIRC. Well, sorry, hard cheddar. It's Merseyside. Expect strong feelings, but criminal damage is obviously beyond the pale. If he wins, this seat will renamed Liverpool Gorston. Glasgow dropped the ball vis-a-vis seat names unlike Liverpool, didn't they? It would be ironic if the last Liverpool seat with Tory Councillors (Woolton - 1994) had some hard left headbanger as MP. I guess the moderate Labour voters who stump for the Lib Dems for the council elections might keep Maria in this seat as MP because I don't know if the rough areas like Speke can outvote the more twee bits around Allerton, Hunts Cross, Much Woolton etc. Still, Liverpool Garston had a long history of marginal status in the 70s and even in 1983 despite the demographics and socio-economic profile dooming the Tories from the early 80s onwards. Still, Sam Gorst is no Jason Zadrozny or Ken Livingstone and probably doesn't have the profile beyond his home Ward to win. I guess Liverpool Labour may still suffer from the Joe Anderson era in the city, but that oaf has gone now. I once joked to a scouser that 'we don't speak about Speke' and he rated me for it. He said "Top craic, pal". I have an excellent Scouse accent from watching Hollyoaks (set across the Mersey in Chester) and can also do a mean Scottish accent and bits of Geordie when called for. It's good to see Liverpool seats get seriously contested. Liverpool Wavertree was the last one in the 2000s. Liverpool Riverside saw the Greens come second in 2015 but they are nowhere near building out Labour's huge advantage around the docks which are still pretty ropey. I know that Liverpool used to mint coins. Did this area ever have an MP with the same profile as say, Eric Heffer, or someone else first elected in 1964? Lots of parachutes in Lpool. I guess Gorston 2024 =/= Edge Hill 1979?

[batman]

Jun 28, 2024 3:17:55 GMT @weld said:

Five reasons I think Gorst will do pretty well here:

1) An independent got 40% of the vote in the 2021 Liverpool Mayoral race
2) Gorst did very well in his ward in the locals, with the LCI winning 2/2
3) The Independents won multiple Liverpool wards, not just Garston
4) Maria Eagle has been MP for 27 years and voter fatigue is a thing
5) It's Liverpool we're talking about, the home of Militant

I'd ideally like to know what locals think, including Merseymike . 

To take part in this discussion, you have to read my post and this article in a Scouse accent: skwawkbox.org/2024/02/21/gorst-launches-campaign-to-oust-eagle-in-garston/.

Skwawkbox is one of the shittiest and least authoritative rags that it is possible to obtain

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2024 5:50:42 GMT batman said:

Jun 28, 2024 3:17:55 GMT @weld said:

Five reasons I think Gorst will do pretty well here:

1) An independent got 40% of the vote in the 2021 Liverpool Mayoral race
2) Gorst did very well in his ward in the locals, with the LCI winning 2/2
3) The Independents won multiple Liverpool wards, not just Garston
4) Maria Eagle has been MP for 27 years and voter fatigue is a thing
5) It's Liverpool we're talking about, the home of Militant

I'd ideally like to know what locals think, including Merseymike . 

To take part in this discussion, you have to read my post and this article in a Scouse accent: skwawkbox.org/2024/02/21/gorst-launches-campaign-to-oust-eagle-in-garston/.

Skwawkbox is one of the shittiest and least authoritative rags that it is possible to obtain

The facts they transmit are 1) Gorst is standing 2) Gorst is crowdfunding a campaign. The arguments for Gorst doing all right here have fuck all to do with Skwawk. 

[stb12]

Jun 28, 2024 3:17:55 GMT @weld said:

Five reasons I think Gorst will do pretty well here:

1) An independent got 40% of the vote in the 2021 Liverpool Mayoral race
2) Gorst did very well in his ward in the locals, with the LCI winning 2/2
3) The Independents won multiple Liverpool wards, not just Garston
4) Maria Eagle has been MP for 27 years and voter fatigue is a thing
5) It's Liverpool we're talking about, the home of Militant

I'd ideally like to know what locals think, including Merseymike . 

To take part in this discussion, you have to read my post and this article in a Scouse accent: skwawkbox.org/2024/02/21/gorst-launches-campaign-to-oust-eagle-in-garston/.

NO POLL!

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2024 6:42:25 GMT stb12 said:

Jun 28, 2024 3:17:55 GMT @weld said:

Five reasons I think Gorst will do pretty well here:

1) An independent got 40% of the vote in the 2021 Liverpool Mayoral race
2) Gorst did very well in his ward in the locals, with the LCI winning 2/2
3) The Independents won multiple Liverpool wards, not just Garston
4) Maria Eagle has been MP for 27 years and voter fatigue is a thing
5) It's Liverpool we're talking about, the home of Militant

I'd ideally like to know what locals think, including Merseymike . 

To take part in this discussion, you have to read my post and this article in a Scouse accent: skwawkbox.org/2024/02/21/gorst-launches-campaign-to-oust-eagle-in-garston/.

NO POLL!

Stop the steal! Also, really it should be 'Liverpool, Garston' and not 'Liverpool Garston'. Am I so out of touch? No, it is the Boundary Commission who are wrong. 

[Merseymike]

I know Sam Gorst. I like him, and yes, I would vote for him. But local councillors don't tend to win. Look at Steve Radford.

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2024 7:02:23 GMT Merseymike said:

I know Sam Gorst. I like him, and yes, I would vote for him. But local councillors don't tend to win. Look at Steve Radford.

Yes that's true. However, his forays into Westminster elections were pre-Corbyn and this is probably the most Corbynite area in the land. So if Garston comes down to New Labour intake (Maria) vs Corbynite (Gorst) he could make a splash. I wonder who the Liverpool Echo are supporting here. it's quite well read. 

[Merseymike]

Jun 28, 2024 8:14:40 GMT @weld said:

Jun 28, 2024 7:02:23 GMT Merseymike said:

I know Sam Gorst. I like him, and yes, I would vote for him. But local councillors don't tend to win. Look at Steve Radford.

Yes that's true. However, his forays into Westminster elections were pre-Corbyn and this is probably the most Corbynite area in the land. So if Garston comes down to New Labour intake (Maria) vs Corbynite (Gorst) he could make a splash. I wonder who the Liverpool Echo are supporting here. it's quite well read. 

I'm not sure. Labour will win, certainly for me I will vote Gorst, not Eagle.
Locally I might vote for Peter Dowd because he is a decent person, and it's very safe, but I don't think much in terms of Starmer's Labour.

[Khunanup]

Jun 28, 2024 5:10:04 GMT @weld said:

If I were running here, I'd change my name to 'Ringo Starr' or 'Paul McCartney' by deed poll to help my chances. Seriously though, Isn't Maria Eagle one of the last of 'Blair's Babes' from 1997? My dad was at uni with the Eagle sisters, another dynasty like the Reeveses and Milibands and Kinnocks. It was good Jack Straw's son wasn't elected in Rossendale & Darwen a few years back. I wonder if, in a selection battle here, Gorst could've won on a left-wing platform. All the Eagles did when Corbyn was leader was whine and bitch about how awful it all was IIRC. Well, sorry, hard cheddar. It's Merseyside. Expect strong feelings, but criminal damage is obviously beyond the pale. If he wins, this seat will renamed Liverpool Gorston. Glasgow dropped the ball vis-a-vis seat names unlike Liverpool, didn't they? It would be ironic if the last Liverpool seat with Tory Councillors (Woolton - 1994) had some hard left headbanger as MP. I guess the moderate Labour voters who stump for the Lib Dems for the council elections might keep Maria in this seat as MP because I don't know if the rough areas like Speke can outvote the more twee bits around Allerton, Hunts Cross, Much Woolton etc. Still, Liverpool Garston had a long history of marginal status in the 70s and even in 1983 despite the demographics and socio-economic profile dooming the Tories from the early 80s onwards. Still, Sam Gorst is no Jason Zadrozny or Ken Livingstone and probably doesn't have the profile beyond his home Ward to win. I guess Liverpool Labour may still suffer from the Joe Anderson era in the city, but that oaf has gone now. I once joked to a scouser that 'we don't speak about Speke' and he rated me for it. He said "Top craic, pal". I have an excellent Scouse accent from watching Hollyoaks (set across the Mersey in Chester) and can also do a mean Scottish accent and bits of Geordie when called for. It's good to see Liverpool seats get seriously contested. Liverpool Wavertree was the last one in the 2000s. Liverpool Riverside saw the Greens come second in 2015 but they are nowhere near building out Labour's huge advantage around the docks which are still pretty ropey. I know that Liverpool used to mint coins. Did this area ever have an MP with the same profile as say, Eric Heffer, or someone else first elected in 1964? Lots of parachutes in Lpool. I guess Gorston 2024 =/= Edge Hill 1979?

I see...

[cogload]

Jun 28, 2024 5:10:04 GMT @weld said:

If I were running here, I'd change my name to 'Ringo Starr' or 'Paul McCartney' by deed poll to help my chances. Seriously though, Isn't Maria Eagle one of the last of 'Blair's Babes' from 1997? My dad was at uni with the Eagle sisters, another dynasty like the Reeveses and Milibands and Kinnocks. It was good Jack Straw's son wasn't elected in Rossendale & Darwen a few years back. I wonder if, in a selection battle here, Gorst could've won on a left-wing platform. All the Eagles did when Corbyn was leader was whine and bitch about how awful it all was IIRC. Well, sorry, hard cheddar. It's Merseyside. Expect strong feelings, but criminal damage is obviously beyond the pale. If he wins, this seat will renamed Liverpool Gorston. Glasgow dropped the ball vis-a-vis seat names unlike Liverpool, didn't they? It would be ironic if the last Liverpool seat with Tory Councillors (Woolton - 1994) had some hard left headbanger as MP. I guess the moderate Labour voters who stump for the Lib Dems for the council elections might keep Maria in this seat as MP because I don't know if the rough areas like Speke can outvote the more twee bits around Allerton, Hunts Cross, Much Woolton etc. Still, Liverpool Garston had a long history of marginal status in the 70s and even in 1983 despite the demographics and socio-economic profile dooming the Tories from the early 80s onwards. Still, Sam Gorst is no Jason Zadrozny or Ken Livingstone and probably doesn't have the profile beyond his home Ward to win. I guess Liverpool Labour may still suffer from the Joe Anderson era in the city, but that oaf has gone now. I once joked to a scouser that 'we don't speak about Speke' and he rated me for it. He said "Top craic, pal". I have an excellent Scouse accent from watching Hollyoaks (set across the Mersey in Chester) and can also do a mean Scottish accent and bits of Geordie when called for. It's good to see Liverpool seats get seriously contested. Liverpool Wavertree was the last one in the 2000s. Liverpool Riverside saw the Greens come second in 2015 but they are nowhere near building out Labour's huge advantage around the docks which are still pretty ropey. I know that Liverpool used to mint coins. Did this area ever have an MP with the same profile as say, Eric Heffer, or someone else first elected in 1964? Lots of parachutes in Lpool. I guess Gorston 2024 =/= Edge Hill 1979?

I think you need a break from here. This is just 0's and 1's across a piece of cable, not real life. It isn't worth your health either mental or physical in squatting on a forum.

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 28, 2024 12:36:28 GMT Khunanup said:

Jun 28, 2024 5:10:04 GMT @weld said:

If I were running here, I'd change my name to 'Ringo Starr' or 'Paul McCartney' by deed poll to help my chances. Seriously though, Isn't Maria Eagle one of the last of 'Blair's Babes' from 1997? My dad was at uni with the Eagle sisters, another dynasty like the Reeveses and Milibands and Kinnocks. It was good Jack Straw's son wasn't elected in Rossendale & Darwen a few years back. I wonder if, in a selection battle here, Gorst could've won on a left-wing platform. All the Eagles did when Corbyn was leader was whine and bitch about how awful it all was IIRC. Well, sorry, hard cheddar. It's Merseyside. Expect strong feelings, but criminal damage is obviously beyond the pale. If he wins, this seat will renamed Liverpool Gorston. Glasgow dropped the ball vis-a-vis seat names unlike Liverpool, didn't they? It would be ironic if the last Liverpool seat with Tory Councillors (Woolton - 1994) had some hard left headbanger as MP. I guess the moderate Labour voters who stump for the Lib Dems for the council elections might keep Maria in this seat as MP because I don't know if the rough areas like Speke can outvote the more twee bits around Allerton, Hunts Cross, Much Woolton etc. Still, Liverpool Garston had a long history of marginal status in the 70s and even in 1983 despite the demographics and socio-economic profile dooming the Tories from the early 80s onwards. Still, Sam Gorst is no Jason Zadrozny or Ken Livingstone and probably doesn't have the profile beyond his home Ward to win. I guess Liverpool Labour may still suffer from the Joe Anderson era in the city, but that oaf has gone now. I once joked to a scouser that 'we don't speak about Speke' and he rated me for it. He said "Top craic, pal". I have an excellent Scouse accent from watching Hollyoaks (set across the Mersey in Chester) and can also do a mean Scottish accent and bits of Geordie when called for. It's good to see Liverpool seats get seriously contested. Liverpool Wavertree was the last one in the 2000s. Liverpool Riverside saw the Greens come second in 2015 but they are nowhere near building out Labour's huge advantage around the docks which are still pretty ropey. I know that Liverpool used to mint coins. Did this area ever have an MP with the same profile as say, Eric Heffer, or someone else first elected in 1964? Lots of parachutes in Lpool. I guess Gorston 2024 =/= Edge Hill 1979?

I see...

(Strokes chin, preferably bearded.)

"An interesting case don't you think Professor?"

[gwynthegriff]

Jun 28, 2024 5:10:04 GMT @weld said:

My dad was at uni with the Eagle sisters, another dynasty like the Reeveses and Milibands and Kinnocks.

In what way does two siblings pursuing the same career constitute a "dynasty"?

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2024 17:01:47 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Jun 28, 2024 5:10:04 GMT @weld said:

My dad was at uni with the Eagle sisters, another dynasty like the Reeveses and Milibands and Kinnocks.

In what way does two siblings pursuing the same career constitute a "dynasty"?

I misspoke - it just fit with my narrative. I guess you can have dynasties where fratricide enables one to succeed another. Maybe I'm thinking of something else.