Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 27, 2024 12:17:46 GMT
I don't know much about her, but so far I'm not impressed. Needs to get her head in the game. She's been on the scene for a fair while. She had a constituency office in Romiley, of the old school with a proper shopwriter job over the top. It was never clear if it was just a shop unit that belonged to the Lib Dems anyway, or if she rented it- weird for a councillor to have one, as it was always there (last time I was up there was just after lockdown admittedly, but that obviously long after the last Westminster vote). She's probably a classic of the type- the councillor you wish didn't have ambition. Not at all. She's well liked in the local party and respected in the national party and councillor base. Exactly the kind of person you actually want in parliament, especially holding to account governments who take every chance they can to screw over local communities. As for the comment, well, it is a part of the country where a standard chant is 'Stand up if you hate Scousers' at football matches so it's unlikely it'll have too much of a negative impact... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 27, 2024 12:27:00 GMT
She's been on the scene for a fair while. She had a constituency office in Romiley, of the old school with a proper shopwriter job over the top. It was never clear if it was just a shop unit that belonged to the Lib Dems anyway, or if she rented it- weird for a councillor to have one, as it was always there (last time I was up there was just after lockdown admittedly, but that obviously long after the last Westminster vote). She's probably a classic of the type- the councillor you wish didn't have ambition. Not at all. She's well liked in the local party and respected in the national party and councillor base. Exactly the kind of person you actually want in parliament, especially holding to account governments who take every chance they can to screw over local communities. As for the comment, well, it is a part of the country where a standard chant is 'Stand up if you hate Scousers' at football matches so it's unlikely it'll have too much of a negative impact... Something I learned after being a member of the Lib Dems for a few years and then leaving and viewing the party from the outside is how much Lib Dems conflate being popular within the party to being popular with voters/being a good politician. John Leech was a particularly grating example. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Jun 27, 2024 12:46:29 GMT
Lisa Smart is a perfectly good candidate, and I'm sure she will be a perfectly good MP. But these gaffs aren't, if you allow me, smart. |
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Post by willlucky on Jun 28, 2024 15:22:21 GMT
Not at all. She's well liked in the local party and respected in the national party and councillor base. Exactly the kind of person you actually want in parliament, especially holding to account governments who take every chance they can to screw over local communities. As for the comment, well, it is a part of the country where a standard chant is 'Stand up if you hate Scousers' at football matches so it's unlikely it'll have too much of a negative impact...
The Local Party? Yeah sure, I hear mostly positive things. You do get the occasional comment from a local councillor though.
But Nationally? Haha no, no really no. I've heard enough about her on the national circuit to know that is bollocks.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774 
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Post by john07 on Jul 4, 2024 1:18:54 GMT
Any thoughts on who will finish second in this Constituency?
The Lib Dems will certainly win the seat. The evaporation of the Conservative vote in local elections could prove fatal. Labour have three wards: Manor, Offerton, and Bredbury with decent support in local elections. If this is translated into General Election votes, Labour will stand a chance to come second.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 4, 2024 5:43:32 GMT
Any thoughts on who will finish second in this Constituency? The Lib Dems will certainly win the seat. The evaporation of the Conservative vote in local elections could prove fatal. Labour have three wards: Manor, Offerton, and Bredbury with decent support in local elections. If this is translated into General Election votes, Labour will stand a chance to come second. A second vote for Labour coming second. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 4, 2024 7:36:39 GMT
Any thoughts on who will finish second in this Constituency? The Lib Dems will certainly win the seat. The evaporation of the Conservative vote in local elections could prove fatal. Labour have three wards: Manor, Offerton, and Bredbury with decent support in local elections. If this is translated into General Election votes, Labour will stand a chance to come second. A second vote for Labour coming second. The local election results in May in Hazel Grove were not too dis-similar from those in Watford, which should be a Labour gain. |
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Post by noorderling on Jul 4, 2024 7:50:34 GMT
A second vote for Labour coming second. The local election results in May in Hazel Grove were not too dis-similar from those in Watford, which should be a Labour gain. If Wragg had resigned, I think Labour would certainly have been in with a chance of winning the by-election. Now Smart will get in, and have 4/5 years to establish herself, either good or not so good. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jul 4, 2024 10:39:33 GMT
The local election results in May in Hazel Grove were not too dis-similar from those in Watford, which should be a Labour gain. If Wragg had resigned, I think Labour would certainly have been in with a chance of winning the by-election. Now Smart will get in, and have 4/5 years to establish herself, either good or not so good. But any by-election would have been on the old boundaries. I can’t see anything beyond a Lib Dem win in such circumstances. |
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Post by willlucky on Jul 4, 2024 10:44:02 GMT
If Wragg had resigned, I think Labour would certainly have been in with a chance of winning the by-election. Now Smart will get in, and have 4/5 years to establish herself, either good or not so good.
Yes,
On the local level the next locals aren't due until 2026 and the Labour held areas are up in 2027. If it goes like normal mid-terms, unless the Conservatives resurge, the Labour areas will likely revert back to the Liberals.
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Post by noorderling on Jul 4, 2024 11:12:09 GMT
If Wragg had resigned, I think Labour would certainly have been in with a chance of winning the by-election. Now Smart will get in, and have 4/5 years to establish herself, either good or not so good. But any by-election would have been on the old boundaries. I can’t see anything beyond a Lib Dem win in such circumstances. Yes, I overlooked that the boundary changes make Labour competitive. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 4, 2024 17:22:15 GMT
I was in the constituency today taking Mum for a hospital appointment at Stepping Hill, saw posters for Lisa Smart of Dialstone Road again, but then saw quite a few further down for Claire Vibert in Offerton. I saw none for the Tories in that area.
If Labour keeps it vote up in Manor, Bredbury & Woodley and Offerton, I would favour them coming second as, from what I hear, Claire Vibert is likely to do okay in Marple where she lives. A lot will come down to how badly the Tories do.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 4, 2024 18:11:49 GMT
I was in the constituency today taking Mum for a hospital appointment at Stepping Hill, saw posters for Lisa Smart of Dialstone Road again, but then saw quite a few further down for Claire Vibert in Offerton. I saw none for the Tories in that area. If Labour keeps it vote up in Manor, Bredbury & Woodley and Offerton, I would favour them coming second as, from what I hear, Claire Vibert is likely to do okay in Marple where she lives. A lot will come down to how badly the Tories do. Turnout will be key in those areas you mention. If the Tories can't hold the bungalow belts in Hazel Grove and to a lesser extent Offerton, they are toast. I suspect Labour will do better in Romiley than expected but this is not based on anything solid. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 4, 2024 23:30:03 GMT
Lib Dems claiming victory apparently.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,712
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 5, 2024 0:01:34 GMT
Lib Dems claiming victory apparently. No surprise; I am interested in how Labour does. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Jul 5, 2024 2:05:49 GMT
Labour did indeed come second here.
Lib Dem 37.7%
Lab 23.5%
Con 19.6%
Reform 15.1%
Green 3.8%
SDP 0.2%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2024 14:54:59 GMT
I suppose that Lisa Smart now has a chance to show that she is indeed, erm, smart  |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Jul 9, 2024 18:04:21 GMT
Now that the Conservatives seem to be out of contention for Hazel Grove, I can see the Lib Dem tactical voting unwinding for the next election.
The estimated Ward results on another thread shows Labour taking Manor, Offerton and Bredbury, with the Lib Dems winning in other four Wards. It will require more demographic change to bring Labour into contention, but it remains a possibility.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,591
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 9, 2024 18:29:08 GMT
Labour did indeed come second here. Lib Dem 37.7% Lab 23.5% Con 19.6% Reform 15.1% Green 3.8% SDP 0.2% I wonder how much damage the Wragg factor caused for the conservatives here. Clearly in Fylde though Menzies didn’t do enough damage. And in a hypothetical situation where Wragg didn't do what he did and stood again, would he have at least come second? |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 9, 2024 18:33:44 GMT
Now that the Conservatives seem to be out of contention for Hazel Grove, I can see the Lib Dem tactical voting unwinding for the next election. The estimated Ward results on another thread shows Labour taking Manor, Offerton and Bredbury, with the Lib Dems winning in other four Wards. It will require more demographic change to bring Labour into contention, but it remains a possibility. But then you will get Tories voting tactically for the LDs against Labour. |
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