North Northumberland

[stb12]

North Northumberland

[iain]

www.northumberland.gov.uk/elections.aspx

8 candidates: 5 main parties, SDP, 2 Independents

[binky]

On current polls, this has to be a plausible (albeit not probable) Labour win, right? Would be extraordinary if we swept the North East just 4.5 years after our worst performance there in nearly a century.

[stb12]

Jun 18, 2024 13:53:04 GMT binky said:

On current polls, this has to be a plausible (albeit not probable) Labour win, right? Would be extraordinary if we swept the North East just 4.5 years after our worst performance there in nearly a century.

Are the Lib Dems totally out of contention despite the Berwick history?

[bjornhattan]

Jun 18, 2024 13:53:04 GMT binky said:

On current polls, this has to be a plausible (albeit not probable) Labour win, right? Would be extraordinary if we swept the North East just 4.5 years after our worst performance there in nearly a century.

The polls definitely suggest that would be possible, and the boundary changes help Labour a little too. But looking at the seat systematically, I'm not so sure.

Looking at my own modelling, demographics suggest that seven divisions would probably vote very heavily Conservative, even if North Northumberland as a whole is close: Norham & Islandshires, Bamburgh, Longhoughton, Wooler, Rothbury, Shilbottle, and Amble West with Warkworth. Most of these cover deeply rural villages, with only Amble West with Warkworth being more urban (and even then, it covers the more affluent parts of Amble where fairly clear majorities own their homes outright).

There are then five divisions where you would expect Labour to win reasonably comfortably in any fairly marginal election, based purely on demographics. The three Berwick divisions, Amble, and Lynemouth are in this category - my models suggest Berwick East voted Labour even in 2019 while Berwick North and Amble were only Conservative by fairly small margins of approximately 10%. This leaves the remaining divisions as decisive: probably more likely to be Conservative than not, but areas Labour have to win to gain the constituency as a whole. Pegswood, Alnwick, Morpeth Stobhill, and Morpeth Kirkhill are all important battlegrounds of this type.

I carried out my analysis based on modelling from three elections - 2015, 2017, and 2019. The reason I did this was to catch contrasting cases like the two remaining divisions of Druridge Bay and Morpeth North. The former consists of ex coal mining villages to the south of Amble and is very working class, while the latter contains Morpeth's pleasant town centre and desirable housing to its north (as well as some new build estates). Relative to the constituency as a whole, Druridge Bay has moved right whereas Morpeth North has moved left. So if I base my analysis on 2015 then Druridge Bay has to be quite solid for Labour while they can afford to lose Morpeth North even as they win overall. By 2019 this almost reverses - Druridge Bay is much more marginal while Labour have to pick up quite a lot more of the vote from Morpeth. There is some indication that in working class communities that may have drifted away from Labour, the swing could be rather better than average this time - if this is true then Druridge Bay would probably shift quite decisively towards Labour.

However, theoretical calculations about demographics are only part of the story. In many of the wards where Labour would need to win, and look like they should be strong, they have minimal local strength. Take Berwick East - a division consisting of working class communities in Tweedmouth and Spittal with a high level of renting (both social and private). On paper then, that is probably one of Labour's strongest areas in the constituency. But in reality, they last contested it in 2013 (and won just 21% of the vote) - in the most recent election a populist ex-Tory independent won with 76% of the vote. Then you have the town of Morpeth; Labour last won a local contest there in 2005 and the Conservatives won more than 50% in two of the three divisions in the most recent council elections. Only Amble and the communities to its south can really be considered solidly Labour territory in this seat, and as mentioned earlier, those areas are perhaps drifting away from the party as coal mining moves away from living memory and places like Ellington and Hadston increasingly become commuter villages for Newcastle. For that reason, I just don't think Labour will quite take the seat - I could be wrong here but I don't think they have enough strength in enough of the seat to win.

[jamie]

Jun 18, 2024 14:30:34 GMT stb12 said:

Are the Lib Dems totally out of contention despite the Berwick history?

Labour were 2nd in the local elections even in 2021 so it looks so. It’s not the sort of place the Lib Dem’s have done well in at the past couple of general elections, and their local position has deteriorated enough that I doubt they will bounce back next month. 

[nyx]

Jun 18, 2024 14:30:34 GMT stb12 said:

Jun 18, 2024 13:53:04 GMT binky said:

On current polls, this has to be a plausible (albeit not probable) Labour win, right? Would be extraordinary if we swept the North East just 4.5 years after our worst performance there in nearly a century.

Are the Lib Dems totally out of contention despite the Berwick history?

I expect that if they'd pulled activists in from elsewhere to have it as their main target in the region, it could have been doable for the Lib Dems.

But as it is, there's no meaningful LD campaign so I'd expect a Labour gain.

[right]

Jun 18, 2024 14:30:34 GMT stb12 said:

Jun 18, 2024 13:53:04 GMT binky said:

On current polls, this has to be a plausible (albeit not probable) Labour win, right? Would be extraordinary if we swept the North East just 4.5 years after our worst performance there in nearly a century.

Are the Lib Dems totally out of contention despite the Berwick history?

There's an independent from Berwick which may queer the pitch for the Lib Dems

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19637/

[jamie]

Jun 20, 2024 6:20:41 GMT right said:

Jun 18, 2024 14:30:34 GMT stb12 said:

Are the Lib Dems totally out of contention despite the Berwick history?

There's an independent from Berwick which may queer the pitch for the Lib Dems

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19637/

Given she’s ex-Conservative, I’m sceptical she’ll damage the Lib Dem’s (or Labour’s) chance of winning. 

[right]

Jun 20, 2024 6:57:39 GMT jamie said:

Jun 20, 2024 6:20:41 GMT right said:

There's an independent from Berwick which may queer the pitch for the Lib Dems

electionleaflets.org/leaflets/19637/

Given she’s ex-Conservative, I’m sceptical she’ll damage the Lib Dem’s (or Labour’s) chance of winning. 

Not really thinking of Labour there.

[tyneguy]

She is ex-Conservative, but she has received an endorsement from Jamie Driscoll (perhaps part of his own effort to queer the pitch)

www.northumberlandgazette.co.uk/news/ex-mayor-jamie-driscoll-backs-georgina-hill-for-north-northumberland-seat-4669062

[jamie]

Bigger Labour majority here than in Hexham. Yes, Reform did not stand in Hexham but they would only have got 10% which would only have decreased the Labour lead by a couple of percent. 

[aargauer]

Surprised how badly the Tories did here.

[peterski]

Me too . I thought they would hold . Ditto for Penrith and Solway . Yet the Scottish borders seats held firm . Different dynamics I suppose.

[batman]

Alan Beith would be turning in his grave, were it not for the fact that he is still alive & the relatively modest age of 81.

[certain]

I spent one evening here in support of David Smith, with a party from Labour Housing Group. Reform was surely one factor compared with Hexham. But maybe also there was the unpopularity of Anne Marie, compared to Guy Opperman. Her failure to deliver on dualling the A1 after nine years must have damaged her somewhat. She had made it her personal campaign before election in 2015.

None of this quite explains the disparity with Hexham, where Labour put in far more resources

[thirdchill]

Jul 6, 2024 22:06:45 GMT certain said:

I spent one evening here in support of David Smith, with a party from Labour Housing Group. Reform was surely one factor compared with Hexham. But maybe also there was the unpopularity of Anne Marie, compared to Guy Opperman. Her failure to deliver on dualling the A1 after nine years must have damaged her somewhat. She had made it her personal campaign before election in 2015.

None of this quite explains the disparity with Hexham, where Labour put in far more resources

The following wards make up the constituency:

Alnwick, Amble, Amble West with Warkworth, Bamburgh, Berwick East, Berwick North, Berwick West with Ord, Druridge Bay, Longhoughton, Lynemouth, Morpeth Kirkhill, Morpeth North, Morpeth Stobhill, Norham and Islandshires, Pegswood, Rothbury, Shilbottle and Wooler

My thoughts are:

1) Amble & Druridge Bay & Lynemouth Wards wards - 3 Solid labour wards with Reform in 2nd place in all three, pushing Conservatives down to 3rd.

2) Labour winning all Berwick Wards I think (particularly Berwick North). The other two would have been quite close.

3) Morpeth Wards probably split between Labour & Conservatives, though not with huge majorites for either party.

4) Of the rural wards, Alnwick probably went labour judging by the overall figures, I think the rest would have gone conservative (though a couple would have been very narrow).

[thirdchill]

One difference between this constituency and Hexham is that the conservative vote, whilst it can be larger than Hexham at times, is not as solid for the conservatives. A lot of the wards that the conservatives will have won in elections from 2015 to 2019 actually would have gone lib dem prior to 2015.

There are fewer wards making up this constituency that have been consistently conservative. Wooler is definitely one of them, possibly a couple of other rural wards but not much else.

[carlton43]

Jul 21, 2024 15:07:30 GMT thirdchill said:

One difference between this constituency and Hexham is that the conservative vote, whilst it can be larger than Hexham at times, is not as solid for the conservatives. A lot of the wards that the conservatives will have won in elections from 2015 to 2019 actually would have gone lib dem prior to 2015.

There are fewer wards making up this constituency that have been consistently conservative. Wooler is definitely one of them, possibly a couple of other rural wards but not much else.

This is a rare case of Reform standing as well as the SDP.  That could be because it is a totally new SDP candidature?

I suppose without the Reform intervention it might have been a Conservative hold?

[john07]

Jul 21, 2024 15:19:40 GMT carlton43 said:

Jul 21, 2024 15:07:30 GMT thirdchill said:

One difference between this constituency and Hexham is that the conservative vote, whilst it can be larger than Hexham at times, is not as solid for the conservatives. A lot of the wards that the conservatives will have won in elections from 2015 to 2019 actually would have gone lib dem prior to 2015.

There are fewer wards making up this constituency that have been consistently conservative. Wooler is definitely one of them, possibly a couple of other rural wards but not much else.

This is a rare case of Reform standing as well as the SDP.  That could be because it is a totally new SDP candidature?

I suppose without the Reform intervention it might have been a Conservative hold?

I would be surprised as the Labour majority was just over 10% and the Reform vote was around 15%. There is no way that the Reform vote would move en masse to the Conservatives. Ok the majority would but some might return to Labour and others would stay at home. Some votes might even go to the SDP or an independent.

It might be interesting to see if the swing from Conservative to Labour was much different in seats where reform did not stand?