birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Jul 21, 2024 18:35:11 GMT
From the same site as the ones posted on the Hexham thread, here are estimates of the winning party by ward here: CON: Amble West with Warkworth Bamburgh Longhoughton Norham and Islandshires Rothbury Wooler LAB: Alnwick Amble All three Berwick wards Druridge Bay Lynemouth All three Morpeth wards Pegswood Shilbottle In contrast to the ones for Hexham, I think these are pretty much spot-on with the exception of Shilbottle.
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Post by aargauer on Jul 21, 2024 18:58:32 GMT
From the same site as the ones posted on the Hexham thread, here are estimates of the winning party by ward here: CON: Amble West with Warkworth Bamburgh Longhoughton Norham and Islandshires Rothbury Wooler LAB: Alnwick Amble All three Berwick wards Druridge Bay Lynemouth All three Morpeth wards Pegswood Shilbottle In contrast to the ones for Hexham, I think these are pretty much spot-on with the exception of Shilbottle. You'd expect Shilbottle to be conservative and Amble West to be Labour. It's bizzare to imagine Labour winning Alnwick but I think probably correct given how god awful this result was. I notice they predicted Chapel Ward in Newcastle west to be conservative 😂 |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 27, 2024 13:29:06 GMT
Given the 10% margin, it’s hard to see which wards the Tories actually won. Wooler certainly, but after that I’d guess quite marginally they won Bamburgh, Longhoughton, Norham and Islandshires, and Rothbury. These and some other wards look rather unlikely places for Labour to win, but when Labour are getting 36% and the Tories are all the way down on 26%, it’s hard to make the numbers add up without Labour getting close or winning them. The results elsewhere suggest they won’t have been getting much more than 50% in their 3 safe wards (and ~45% in Pegswood), so basically anywhere with a half decent Labour vote probably voted for them i.e. Morpeth, Berwick, and probably Alnwick and Shilbottle (definitely the village itself).
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 29, 2024 10:34:25 GMT
Given the 10% margin, it’s hard to see which wards the Tories actually won. Wooler certainly, but after that I’d guess quite marginally they won Bamburgh, Longhoughton, Norham and Islandshires, and Rothbury. These and some other wards look rather unlikely places for Labour to win, but when Labour are getting 36% and the Tories are all the way down on 26%, it’s hard to make the numbers add up without Labour getting close or winning them. The results elsewhere suggest they won’t have been getting much more than 50% in their 3 safe wards (and ~45% in Pegswood), so basically anywhere with a half decent Labour vote probably voted for them i.e. Morpeth, Berwick, and probably Alnwick and Shilbottle (definitely the village itself). My model tends to agree with you - it places the wards in the following order (from most Conservative to most Labour): Wooler Rothbury Longhoughton Bamburgh Norham and Islandshires Amble West with Warkworth Shilbottle Morpeth North Alnwick Pegswood Morpeth Stobhill Morpeth Kirkhill Lynemouth Berwick West with Ord Druridge Bay Berwick North Amble Berwick East In practice Labour will have done rather worse than this in Berwick East - demographically it looks much stronger for them than it is (and Georgina Hill who stood as an independent and is a popular councillor there will have won far more than the 7% than I expected). But the rough order seems right - in the three safe "coal coast" wards I actually have Reform ahead of the Tories. Shilbottle is interesting - I have the village itself as very comfortably Labour but the rest of the ward is equally comfortably Tory. What probably makes the difference there is the other villages - Longframlington and Felton - which are fairly marginal but are estimated to have at least one decently strong Labour OA. This is a pattern that comes up in a lot of Northumbrian villages; Labour will be well ahead in one part of the village that has a higher concentration of social housing, residents without cars, and those in more working class jobs. Even in the Conservative rural wards, it seems that Labour generally won the eponymous villages while the ward as a whole went Tory. In Rothbury for instance Labour appear to be narrowly ahead (but then well behind in Thropton and rural Coquetdale). Wooler is a three way marginal on my model (Lab 295 Con 287 Ref 227), while Labour are also ahead in Norham and Longhoughton. Bamburgh appears to be the one exception - though even there I have Labour narrowly winning the ward's more urban centre (Seahouses). These results do feel somewhat outlandish, but as you say a Labour majority of 10% (with the Tories winning only a quarter of the vote) will result in some bizarre outcomes... |
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YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jul 29, 2024 16:24:31 GMT
My model tends to agree with you - it places the wards in the following order (from most Conservative to most Labour): Wooler Rothbury Longhoughton Bamburgh Norham and Islandshires Amble West with Warkworth Shilbottle Morpeth North Alnwick Pegswood Morpeth Stobhill Morpeth Kirkhill Lynemouth Berwick West with Ord Druridge Bay Berwick North Amble Berwick East Are you going to publish/post your model? (Or have I missed you doing so already?) |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jul 29, 2024 16:37:06 GMT
My model tends to agree with you - it places the wards in the following order (from most Conservative to most Labour): Wooler Rothbury Longhoughton Bamburgh Norham and Islandshires Amble West with Warkworth Shilbottle Morpeth North Alnwick Pegswood Morpeth Stobhill Morpeth Kirkhill Lynemouth Berwick West with Ord Druridge Bay Berwick North Amble Berwick East Are you going to publish/post your model? (Or have I missed you doing so already?) Probably not in its current form - at the moment it looks reasonably accurate in most of England but has a real issue with Lib Dem seats (and specifically, deprived areas within them). A good example is Twerton in Bath where it puts Labour ahead (not all that unreasonable especially based on demographics) but the Lib Dems are on 8% - massively behind Reform and the Greens, and barely ahead of the Tories. I would need to come up with a proper way to model Lab > LD tactical votes before I'd feel confident releasing it. At the moment I do model some "tactical" voting in a rather clunky way - I split the Lib Dem/Green vote in Burnley and Huddersfield then created a fake Gaza independent to model the Muslim vote (then added the resulting votes to simulate the way Muslims apparently voted heavily Lib Dem and Green in these two seats). I'd need a more sophisticated approach that scales to dozens of seats to handle the Lib Dems. |
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Aug 5, 2024 13:24:59 GMT
I was in Rothbury over the weekend, there was still a Labour poster up in one window...
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