jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 13, 2022 22:38:30 GMT
P.S. Oh, and whether the Parti Québécois survives at all! If the answer is "non" will they bring the Bloq down with them given the relationship between the two? The BQ seems to be doing just fine judging by the past couple of general elections. It’s clear that a lot of the vote for CAQ goes to them nationally (the BQ have done well in large part by strongly defending CAQ legislation), and if that changes it won’t be down to the PQ’s fortunes. |
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Post by redvers on Sept 13, 2022 23:37:12 GMT
Some interesting developments from the land of our Canadian brethren. 1) Surprising no-one, Pierre Poilievre was elected Leader of the Conservative Party (and consequently Leader of the Opposition) in a landslide, winning on the 1st round. Poilievre ran a right-populist campaign, which combined with his charisma produced a lot of grassroots energy that quickly became unbeatable. The wildcard, Patrick Brown (Mayor of Brampton), ran a kind of all-things-to-all-people kamikaze campaign which saw him disqualified. Jean Charest, the former Premier of Quebec, ran on a kind of 'Poilievre will be a Trump' campaign but quickly became evident he would appeal to few in the party. Charest only won 8 ridings out of 338 - Poilievre won the rest. 2) Another conservative leadership election coming up, this time in Alberta. After Premier Jason Kenney was felled, the United Conservative Party is looking for a new leader. The contest is a variety of oddities, one of whom is Danielle Smith - famed for leading the Wildrose Party of years yonder and orchestrating its merger with the Progressive Conservatives before that whole dynasty fell apart. She's attempting a comeback and shockingly looks the front-runner. Flirting with covid scepticism, her signature policy is a Sovereignty Act which will allow Alberta to ignore federal laws it doesn't like - sure the courts will have a few things to say about that. Her main opponent is establishment choice Travis Toews, the finance minister. The result will be announced early October. The general election is in 2023, something for which the NDP has been leading in most of the polls. 3) The question isn't whether Premier François Legault's conservative CAQ wins the Quebec election. It will. It almost certainly looks like a landslide. The question is whether the Quebec Liberals can survive as a rump party, and whether the upstart Conservative Party of Quebec can make a breakthrough. P.S. Oh, and whether the Parti Québécois survives at all!If the answer is "non" will they bring the Bloq down with them given the relationship between the two? Unlikely. The BQ at least has a selling point - "Unlike the other parties, we focus only on Quebec. We stand only for Quebec. Vote for us as the defenders of Quebec's interests." Now that doesn't mean that argument wins forever - look how close to extinction the BQ came in 2011 when a strong alternative came forward. If something is going to threaten the BQ, it's if a new force enters the political arena. Say hypothetically if Legault decided to throw his weight around, influencing federal politics. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Sept 14, 2022 1:57:33 GMT
If the answer is "non" will they bring the Bloq down with them given the relationship between the two? Unlikely. The BQ at least has a selling point - "Unlike the other parties, we focus only on Quebec. We stand only for Quebec. Vote for us as the defenders of Quebec's interests." Now that doesn't mean that argument wins forever - look how close to extinction the BQ came in 2011 when a strong alternative came forward. If something is going to threaten the BQ, it's if a new force enters the political arena. Say hypothetically if Legault decided to throw his weight around, influencing federal politics. He endorsed the Conservatives last time. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 14, 2022 5:28:42 GMT
Unlikely. The BQ at least has a selling point - "Unlike the other parties, we focus only on Quebec. We stand only for Quebec. Vote for us as the defenders of Quebec's interests." Now that doesn't mean that argument wins forever - look how close to extinction the BQ came in 2011 when a strong alternative came forward. If something is going to threaten the BQ, it's if a new force enters the political arena. Say hypothetically if Legault decided to throw his weight around, influencing federal politics. He endorsed the Conservatives last time. How much would Poilivievre’s bilingualism help the Tories in the more Conservative/Rural ridings held by BQ? |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2022 13:16:27 GMT
Poilievre ran a right-populist campaign, which combined with his charisma He is an eternal right-liberal ("libertarian") studentsPolitician, but is neither a "right-populist" (~NationalSocialist) nor with genuine charisma apart for a small sect(ion) of Canadian society (Westerners, antiVaxxers, libertarian graduates). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 14, 2022 13:22:26 GMT
He endorsed the Conservatives last time. How much would Poilivievre’s bilingualism help the Tories in the more Conservative/Rural ridings held by BQ? That has been widely discussed by Canadians on an US-forum. Most think (and this sounds sensible), that the French are generally too strongState-friendly and hostile to the libertarian stances of the cowBoy-provinces in the West&USA for a broad breakThrough (apart from the area of QuebecCity, which is already in the CPC-fold though). |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Sept 18, 2022 2:31:29 GMT
Many of you here will know there used to be a provision whereby Parliament would automatically dissolve upon the death of the sovereign. Canada, where of course the British monarch is still head of state, initially inherited this legal stipulation before doing away with it in most jurisdictions. However, due to something (I think) related to Québec's refusal to sign the 1982 constitution, this seems to have still be the law there until last year, when it finally dawned on politicians there that they ought to do something about it before Elizabeth II passed... ... only for her to die during a general election campaign anyway. No doubt maxque can correct me if I've got any of the details wrong there or omitted something. Premier Legault cancelled a couple of his engagements today but the other main parties all carried on campaigning as vigorously as ever, demonstrating how detached from the Crown modern Québec politics usually is. In 1982, in protest, they removed all clauses referring to the monarchy from the "Loi sur l'Assemblée Nationale", including the clause saying the death of the monarch doesn't dissolve the legislature. Since there is nothing in the law, common law applies. CAQ and PLQ voted for that, QS and PQ abstained because their amendments were rejected (QS wanted to remove the oath to the monarch, the PQ wanted an automatic referendum on monarchy at the death of the Queen). In Quebec election news, the PLQ has failed to field a full state of candidates and media is now spinning things as a race between PLQ and QS to become the official opposition (and PQ and PCQ in a fight to get any MNAs elected). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 18, 2022 19:05:09 GMT
How much would Poilivievre’s bilingualism help the Tories in the more Conservative/Rural ridings held by BQ? That has been widely discussed by Canadians on an US-forum. Most think (and this sounds sensible), that the French are generally too strongState-friendly and hostile to the libertarian stances of the cowBoy-provinces in the West&USA for a broad breakThrough (apart from the area of QuebecCity, which is already in the CPC-fold though). p.scr.: The case of Bernier is insightful here, of course: Despite being a real Quebecer he failed with CPC &PPC not least because of insufficient support from there. |
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Post by rcronald on Sept 20, 2022 3:10:31 GMT
Many of you here will know there used to be a provision whereby Parliament would automatically dissolve upon the death of the sovereign. Canada, where of course the British monarch is still head of state, initially inherited this legal stipulation before doing away with it in most jurisdictions. However, due to something (I think) related to Québec's refusal to sign the 1982 constitution, this seems to have still be the law there until last year, when it finally dawned on politicians there that they ought to do something about it before Elizabeth II passed... ... only for her to die during a general election campaign anyway. No doubt maxque can correct me if I've got any of the details wrong there or omitted something. Premier Legault cancelled a couple of his engagements today but the other main parties all carried on campaigning as vigorously as ever, demonstrating how detached from the Crown modern Québec politics usually is. In 1982, in protest, they removed all clauses referring to the monarchy from the "Loi sur l'Assemblée Nationale", including the clause saying the death of the monarch doesn't dissolve the legislature. Since there is nothing in the law, common law applies. CAQ and PLQ voted for that, QS and PQ abstained because their amendments were rejected (QS wanted to remove the oath to the monarch, the PQ wanted an automatic referendum on monarchy at the death of the Queen). In Quebec election news, the PLQ has failed to field a full state of candidates and media is now spinning things as a race between PLQ and QS to become the official opposition (and PQ and PCQ in a fight to get any MNAs elected). Is the PCQ vote spread that evenly? As the polls show them neck and neck with the PLQ in the popular vote. Btw, how well do you think the PCQ is going to perform in places where the Tories have been performing decently well federally in the last 10 years but the Libs still get landslide margins in provincial margins (D'Arcy-McGee being a perfect example, as the Libs got 74.32% there in 2018 while the federal Tories got 25% in 2019 and showed themselves capable of getting more then 35% of the vote with an excellent candidate in a bad year like 2015) |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Sept 20, 2022 13:50:59 GMT
In 1982, in protest, they removed all clauses referring to the monarchy from the "Loi sur l'Assemblée Nationale", including the clause saying the death of the monarch doesn't dissolve the legislature. Since there is nothing in the law, common law applies. CAQ and PLQ voted for that, QS and PQ abstained because their amendments were rejected (QS wanted to remove the oath to the monarch, the PQ wanted an automatic referendum on monarchy at the death of the Queen). In Quebec election news, the PLQ has failed to field a full state of candidates and media is now spinning things as a race between PLQ and QS to become the official opposition (and PQ and PCQ in a fight to get any MNAs elected). Is the PCQ vote spread that evenly? As the polls show them neck and neck with the PLQ in the popular vote. Btw, how well do you think the PCQ is going to perform in places where the Tories have been performing decently well federally in the last 10 years but the Libs still get landslide margins in provincial margins (D'Arcy-McGee being a perfect example, as the Libs got 74.32% there in 2018 while the federal Tories got 25% in 2019 and showed themselves capable of getting more then 35% of the vote with an excellent candidate in a bad year like 2015) Mainstreet is a very sketchy pollster (it kept seeing Bernier's party federally over 10% when it did nowhere near that). What is considered the best pollster (Léger) currently a 3-way tie for 2nd (between the PCQ, the PLQ and QS). It seems from various polls that the PCQ vote is concentrated in and around Quebec City and in anglophone areas (where they won't win anyting because the PLQ is still too strong there, despite the PCQ having strong candidates and the support of the most anti-French milieu). In rural Quebec, they seem stronger in central Quebec and weaker in outlying areas (the same patttern happened in 2007 between ADQ and PQ). QS vote is the one that's spread too evenly for their own good (in the last Léger poll, they have the exact same score in both Montréal, Québec City and rural Québec). |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 3, 2022 14:40:24 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 3, 2022 14:40:53 GMT
Once again Quebec, this time the pollster-Performance 2018. Grouped by lowest deViation per party:  Final poll of each company:  For once Léger was not the non plus ultra. |
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Post by redvers on Oct 3, 2022 23:41:14 GMT
The one downside of watching Canadian election coverage is their insufferable habit of obsessing for the first hour over riding results with only dozens of votes in. Like I don't care if the Liberals in Nowhere East are leading 26-13 votes...
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Post by redvers on Oct 4, 2022 0:12:29 GMT
11 minutes after polls close and the CBC projects a CAQ majority government. No surprise
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2022 0:12:43 GMT
CBC just called a CAQ majority. Only 11 minutes after polls closed
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Post by johnloony on Oct 4, 2022 0:37:30 GMT
The one downside of watching Canadian election coverage is their insufferable habit of obsessing for the first hour over riding results with only dozens of votes in. Like I don't care if the Liberals in Nowhere East are leading 26-13 votes... The problem is not that they report such tiny sub-samples; the problem is that they simply add up the raw figures as they go along and don't extrapolate from their figures or compare with what happened last time. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 4, 2022 0:41:29 GMT
The one downside of watching Canadian election coverage is their insufferable habit of obsessing for the first hour over riding results with only dozens of votes in. Like I don't care if the Liberals in Nowhere East are leading 26-13 votes... The problem is not that they report such tiny sub-samples; the problem is that they simply add up the raw figures as they go along and don't extrapolate from their figures or compare with what happened last time. I think in fairness all they can do is republish the figures issued by whatever Electoral Commission is running that particular election, and if Canadian commissions don’t follow their Australian counterparts in publishing booth results, a broadcaster just has to take what it’s given. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 4, 2022 1:05:35 GMT
Only just discovered there's an election going on in Quebec. The British media is useless at even mentioning provincial elections in other large countries. Agreed, on which point you might not be aware the Australian State of Victoria has elections on 26 November. |
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clyde1998
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Post by clyde1998 on Oct 4, 2022 8:58:19 GMT
The Liberals finished fourth in the popular vote, behind QS and the PQ, over 10pp down on 2018. Very little between QS in second and the Conservatives in fifth; only 2.5%. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 4, 2022 9:19:24 GMT
With the PLQ being reduced to Montreal-Laval (they won one seat at the outSkirt, one further away), PQ moribund and PCQ and QS too outsiderish a long rule of CAQ is now not impossible.
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