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Post by greenhert on May 10, 2024 20:16:41 GMT
The byElection-results have generally not been as disastrous, though. there have not been any by-elections outside Durham (which was in early march, and despite being O’Toole’s former riding, had a large swing) since June 2023. There are 3 coming up soon, though, 2 of which involve Liberal defences (the other is an NDP defence). All 3 look reasonably safe by majority but by no means are they actually safe in the current circumstances. |
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Post by rcronald on May 10, 2024 20:32:34 GMT
there have not been any by-elections outside Durham (which was in early march, and despite being O’Toole’s former riding, had a large swing) since June 2023. There are 3 coming up soon, though, 2 of which involve Liberal defences (the other is an NDP defence). All 3 look reasonably safe by majority but by no means are they actually safe in the current circumstances. The Montreal riding (the only riding in Montreal where the Tories have a chance is in heavily Jewish Mount Royal) is absolutely safe. The other 2 are more interesting even if the Tories are more than 20% behind in both of them. Edit: I guess BQ can theoretically gain the Montreal riding as they are doing well in the polls and lost by 20% last time. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on May 11, 2024 9:36:57 GMT
I’m surprised that no one is talking about the meltdown of the Canadian Liberals. They are now down by 20%… It's looking pretty bleak for them for the next election, but they're averaging mid-20s which is only seven points down on last time and are clearly second so it's not exactly catastrophic. The big margin to the Tories is because they're up by more (and of course they got one percent more than the Liberals last time anyway). And this is Canada where campaigns really matter, so anything could happen when we actually get to the election next year. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on May 11, 2024 10:43:35 GMT
I fear that rcronald used the US form of "down by" there (ie "trailing by") File along with the Yanks erroneous use of "swing". |
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Post by rcronald on May 11, 2024 12:12:36 GMT
I’m surprised that no one is talking about the meltdown of the Canadian Liberals. They are now down by 20%… It's looking pretty bleak for them for the next election, but they're averaging mid-20s which is only seven points down on last time and are clearly second so it's not exactly catastrophic. The big margin to the Tories is because they're up by more (and of course they got one percent more than the Liberals last time anyway). And this is Canada where campaigns really matter, so anything could happen when we actually get to the election next year. I meant trailing by 20%. I highly doubt that they’ll end up in the teens. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846 
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 11, 2024 13:31:58 GMT
The byElection-results have generally not been as disastrous, though. there have not been any by-elections outside Durham (which was in early march, and despite being O’Toole’s former riding, had a large swing) since June 2023. I included also regional & local byElections. But these mirror the national trend only to some extent, of course. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on May 11, 2024 16:55:09 GMT
It's looking pretty bleak for them for the next election, but they're averaging mid-20s which is only seven points down on last time and are clearly second so it's not exactly catastrophic. The big margin to the Tories is because they're up by more (and of course they got one percent more than the Liberals last time anyway). And this is Canada where campaigns really matter, so anything could happen when we actually get to the election next year. I meant trailing by 20%. I highly doubt that they’ll end up in the teens. Fair enough. But that's nothing particularly special in Canadian politics, which is subject to often significant swings from one election to the next and you get very localised voting patterns. And it remains to be seen how Poilievre does in an election campaign. He's come into the centre somewhat but the Conservative caucus is still pretty fractious and he needs to keep them onside. I'm also not convinced Trudeau will lead the Liberals into the election. If he doesn't, who knows what might happen. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on May 11, 2024 17:33:07 GMT
there have not been any by-elections outside Durham (which was in early march, and despite being O’Toole’s former riding, had a large swing) since June 2023. I included also regional & local byElections. But these mirror the national trend only to some extent, of course. As the parties are not linked, it's irrelevent and useless |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 15, 2024 4:51:54 GMT
The ballot paper for Toronto St Paul's by-election due on the 24th. The Longest Ballot Committee has flooded the contest as a protest against the plurality election system. 84 candidates!
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edgbaston
Labour
Posts: 4,387
Member is Online
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 25, 2024 9:07:18 GMT
The ballot paper for Toronto St Paul's by-election due on the 24th. The Longest Ballot Committee has flooded the contest as a protest against the plurality election system. 84 candidates! |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 25, 2024 9:08:30 GMT
The ballot paper for Toronto St Paul's by-election due on the 24th. The Longest Ballot Committee has flooded the contest as a protest against the plurality election system. 84 candidates! The Libs are screwed…. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 25, 2024 9:12:18 GMT
They had a comfortable lead four hours ago:- |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 25, 2024 9:18:42 GMT
They had a comfortable lead four hours ago:- Their vote was probably spread too efficiently over the last 2 elections, so now they are screwed… |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 25, 2024 12:03:41 GMT
One of the multifarious Independent candidates achieved unimprovable perfection - ie zero votes  |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 25, 2024 13:59:23 GMT
They held up rather well - the astonishing thing is, that the CPC was able to receive over 40% - them winning in the low 30ies because of NDP splitting the left camp seemed possible, but over 40%... |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 25, 2024 14:06:33 GMT
They held up rather well - the astonishing thing is, that the CPC was able to receive over 40% - them winning in the low 30ies because of NDP splitting the left camp seemed possible, but over 40%... I’m pretty sure that there was a decent amount of NDP->Lib tactical voting since they are sort of in the same government and it being an inner-city riding. (I’d expect less tactical voting at the GE) |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 25, 2024 15:52:27 GMT
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Post by johnloony on Jun 25, 2024 20:46:24 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 25, 2024 21:19:37 GMT
Is there something specific that's caused the Liberals/Trudeau to lose popularity? Or is it just a general sense of the country not doing well combined with being in government too long?
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Post by mrpastelito on Jun 25, 2024 21:30:17 GMT
I don't think all Canadians want to live in a totalitarian dystopia.
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