Canadian elections

[The Bishop]

A big Tory win of course, but looking forward the NDP again establishing themselves in an unassailable second place could be highly significant.

(many thought the result last time was a one off and the Liberals would rebound, that very much did not happen)

[Georg Ebner]

Gains&losses on the TargetLists:



As usual most changes did not occur in the constituencies with the smallest margins.

[Khunanup]

Jun 3, 2022 12:45:12 GMT The Bishop said:

A big Tory win of course, but looking forward the NDP again establishing themselves in an unassailable second place could be highly significant.

(many thought the result last time was a one off and the Liberals would rebound, that very much did not happen)

The NDP were down ten points and were entirely rescued by the Liberals rise of four points being far too generalised rather than concentrated in the GTA (and the Liberals actually just outpolled the NDP). More generally there were a lot of lowish vote share winners for all parties, but especially the NDP, and if the Liberals get a non-shit leader then it's not going to take much for them to make some serious inroads, especially against the Tories.

On the other hand, it's not clear where the NDP can go hunting for seats to get towards largest party status, let alone majority, without a Liberal revival that's targeted (but obviously not too successful so they get overtaken).

[Khunanup]

Jun 3, 2022 18:08:03 GMT Khunanup said:

Jun 3, 2022 12:45:12 GMT The Bishop said:

A big Tory win of course, but looking forward the NDP again establishing themselves in an unassailable second place could be highly significant.

(many thought the result last time was a one off and the Liberals would rebound, that very much did not happen)

The NDP were down ten points and were entirely rescued by the Liberals rise of four points being far to generalised rather than concentrated in the GTA (and the Liberals actually just outpolled the NDP). More generally there were a lot of lowish vote share winners for all parties, but especially the NDP, and if the Liberals get a non-shit leader then it's not going to take much for them to make some serious inroads, especially against the Tories.

On the other hand, it's not clear where the NDP can go hunting for seats to get towards largest party status, let alone majority, without a Liberal rival that's targeted (but obviously not too successful so they get overtaken).

An addenda to this. Just seen the turnout was a record low of 43%, nearly 14% less than 2018 and more than five percent less than the previous nadir of 2011. Seems like there was little enthusiasm for anything that was on offer and gives an awful lot of opportunity for there to be very large changes in 4 years time.

[jamie]

Jun 3, 2022 12:45:12 GMT The Bishop said:

A big Tory win of course, but looking forward the NDP again establishing themselves in an unassailable second place could be highly significant.

(many thought the result last time was a one off and the Liberals would rebound, that very much did not happen)

The NDP will have thought that in 2018, but 4 years later their vote fell by 10% while the Liberals rose by 4%. Given the Liberals had another crap leader this year and the NDP started from a clear 2nd, I’m not sure they should be remotely content with this result. 

[johnloony]

Jun 3, 2022 21:12:47 GMT @boogieeck said:

It bewilders me that anyone who considers themselves as being of the left or who considers themselves to be progressive is able to somehow not see Justin Trudeau as a loathsome vile piece of shit

FTFY

[maxque]

Jun 3, 2022 18:08:03 GMT Khunanup said:

Jun 3, 2022 12:45:12 GMT The Bishop said:

A big Tory win of course, but looking forward the NDP again establishing themselves in an unassailable second place could be highly significant.

(many thought the result last time was a one off and the Liberals would rebound, that very much did not happen)

The NDP were down ten points and were entirely rescued by the Liberals rise of four points being far too generalised rather than concentrated in the GTA (and the Liberals actually just outpolled the NDP). More generally there were a lot of lowish vote share winners for all parties, but especially the NDP, and if the Liberals get a non-shit leader then it's not going to take much for them to make some serious inroads, especially against the Tories.

On the other hand, it's not clear where the NDP can go hunting for seats to get towards largest party status, let alone majority, without a Liberal revival that's targeted (but obviously not too successful so they get overtaken).

The problem is getting a non-shit leader. There is a reason why they got one in the first place and no sign that reason has changed.

[Georg Ebner]

How did the pollster perform? Lumping together "NewBlue"&"OntarioP."&"Other":

EKOS was best (but not their final one), then came "Forum Research" - both with a margin of error of less than 0.5% per party.

[The Bishop]

Jun 3, 2022 20:40:51 GMT jamie said:

Jun 3, 2022 12:45:12 GMT The Bishop said:

A big Tory win of course, but looking forward the NDP again establishing themselves in an unassailable second place could be highly significant.

(many thought the result last time was a one off and the Liberals would rebound, that very much did not happen)

The NDP will have thought that in 2018, but 4 years later their vote fell by 10% while the Liberals rose by 4%. Given the Liberals had another crap leader this year and the NDP started from a clear 2nd, I’m not sure they should be remotely content with this result. 

The point however is that they didn't think that, and nor did anybody else; the belief was almost universal that the result was a complete aberration and that next time round the Libs would come back strongly - they didn't (certainly not in seats, ultimately the only thing that matters)

And yes the Ontario Liberals will now get a new leader - but so will the ONDP, and they have a rather bigger talent pool to pick from.

[redvers]

A lot can change in 4 years and of course the ONDP will be happy to retain official opposition, but unassailable?? The Liberals bested them in the popular vote. As much an achievement it was to come second in 2018, there was an aura around the ONDP that if they couldn't win that election against a mad hatter of a PC leader and a self-destructing OLP, when could they? And now they've fallen back. If Horwath thought they were on the up, she wouldn't have resigned...

[The Bishop]

In a FPTP system the failure of the Liberals to gain seats matters vastly more than their mostly dead cat bounce in votes.

And there is an argument Horwath was one of the main reasons the NDP didn't do better.....

[Merseymike]

Jun 5, 2022 11:24:42 GMT The Bishop said:

In a FPTP system the failure of the Liberals to gain seats matters vastly more than their mostly dead cat bounce in votes.

And there is an argument Horwath was one of the main reasons the NDP didn't do better.....

What was the problem with Horwath? Given the electorate wanted Ford, it suggests that it may not have mattered who led the other parties.
The turnout was very low.

[The Bishop]

Well maybe not a massive amount, but she just wasn't very popular.

Her concession speech got widespread praise, which might suggest a bit of the same "advisers told her not to be herself" malaise that affected Ed Miliband.

[Khunanup]

Jun 5, 2022 11:43:40 GMT The Bishop said:

Well maybe not a massive amount, but she just wasn't very popular.

Her concession speech got widespread praise, which might suggest a bit of the same "advisers told her not to be herself" malaise that affected Ed Miliband.

You're massively searching for 'reasons' for this happenstance but ignoring all the reality of the situation.

The NDP completely bombed and were incredibly fortunate that the Liberals are completely incapable of sorting themselves out on Ontario currently.

The Ontario NDP know what a problematic area they're in and that they can't rely on the Tories being crap to let them in. The results show that if that happens only the Liberals would really benefit and the best they can do is an agreement with them.

[Georg Ebner]

Ontario's MPP/%-elec.res. of regions&constituencies:




%-deViations from region-wide results:




Regions per party:

[Foggy]

Many of you here will know there used to be a provision whereby Parliament would automatically dissolve upon the death of the sovereign. Canada, where of course the British monarch is still head of state, initially inherited this legal stipulation before doing away with it in most jurisdictions.

However, due to something (I think) related to Québec's refusal to sign the 1982 constitution, this seems to have still be the law there until last year, when it finally dawned on politicians there that they ought to do something about it before Elizabeth II passed...

... only for her to die during a general election campaign anyway. No doubt maxque can correct me if I've got any of the details wrong there or omitted something.

Premier Legault cancelled a couple of his engagements today but the other main parties all carried on campaigning as vigorously as ever, demonstrating how detached from the Crown modern Québec politics usually is.

[redvers]

Some interesting developments from the land of our Canadian brethren.

1) Surprising no-one, Pierre Poilievre was elected Leader of the Conservative Party (and consequently Leader of the Opposition) in a landslide, winning on the 1st round. Poilievre ran a right-populist campaign, which combined with his charisma produced a lot of grassroots energy that quickly became unbeatable. The wildcard, Patrick Brown (Mayor of Brampton), ran a kind of all-things-to-all-people kamikaze campaign which saw him disqualified. Jean Charest, the former Premier of Quebec, ran on a kind of 'Poilievre will be a Trump' campaign but quickly became evident he would appeal to few in the party. Charest only won 8 ridings out of 338 - Poilievre won the rest.

2) Another conservative leadership election coming up, this time in Alberta. After Premier Jason Kenney was felled, the United Conservative Party is looking for a new leader. The contest is a variety of oddities, one of whom is Danielle Smith - famed for leading the Wildrose Party of years yonder and orchestrating its merger with the Progressive Conservatives before that whole dynasty fell apart. She's attempting a comeback and shockingly looks the front-runner. Flirting with covid scepticism, her signature policy is a Sovereignty Act which will allow Alberta to ignore federal laws it doesn't like - sure the courts will have a few things to say about that. Her main opponent is establishment choice Travis Toews, the finance minister. The result will be announced early October. The general election is in 2023, something for which the NDP has been leading in most of the polls.

3) The question isn't whether Premier François Legault's conservative CAQ wins the Quebec election. It will. It almost certainly looks like a landslide. The question is whether the Quebec Liberals can survive as a rump party, and whether the upstart Conservative Party of Quebec can make a breakthrough.

P.S. Oh, and whether the Parti Québécois survives at all!

[finsobruce]

Sept 13, 2022 15:23:17 GMT redvers said:

Some interesting developments from the land of our Canadian brethren.

1) Surprising no-one, Pierre Poilievre was elected Leader of the Conservative Party (and consequently Leader of the Opposition) in a landslide, winning on the 1st round. Poilievre ran a right-populist campaign, which combined with his charisma produced a lot of grassroots energy that quickly became unbeatable. The wildcard, Patrick Brown (Mayor of Brampton), ran a kind of all-things-to-all-people kamikaze campaign which saw him disqualified. Jean Charest, the former Premier of Quebec, ran on a kind of 'Poilievre will be a Trump' campaign but quickly became evident he would appeal to few in the party. Charest only won 8 ridings out of 338 - Poilievre won the rest.

2) Another conservative leadership election coming up, this time in Alberta. After Premier Jason Kenney was felled, the United Conservative Party is looking for a new leader. The contest is a variety of oddities, one of whom is Danielle Smith - famed for leading the Wildrose Party of years yonder and orchestrating its merger with the Progressive Conservatives before that whole dynasty fell apart. She's attempting a comeback and shockingly looks the front-runner. Flirting with covid scepticism, her signature policy is a Sovereignty Act which will allow Alberta to ignore federal laws it doesn't like - sure the courts will have a few things to say about that. Her main opponent is establishment choice Travis Toews, the finance minister. The result will be announced early October. The general election is in 2023, something for which the NDP has been leading in most of the polls.

3) The question isn't whether Premier François Legault's conservative CAQ wins the Quebec election. It will. It almost certainly looks like a landslide. The question is whether the Quebec Liberals can survive as a rump party, and whether the upstart Conservative Party of Quebec can make a breakthrough.

P.S. Oh, and whether the Parti Québécois survives at all!

I thought Jason Kenn(e)y might survive another cycle.

[timmullen1]

Sept 13, 2022 15:37:03 GMT finsobruce said:

Sept 13, 2022 15:23:17 GMT redvers said:

Some interesting developments from the land of our Canadian brethren.

1) Surprising no-one, Pierre Poilievre was elected Leader of the Conservative Party (and consequently Leader of the Opposition) in a landslide, winning on the 1st round. Poilievre ran a right-populist campaign, which combined with his charisma produced a lot of grassroots energy that quickly became unbeatable. The wildcard, Patrick Brown (Mayor of Brampton), ran a kind of all-things-to-all-people kamikaze campaign which saw him disqualified. Jean Charest, the former Premier of Quebec, ran on a kind of 'Poilievre will be a Trump' campaign but quickly became evident he would appeal to few in the party. Charest only won 8 ridings out of 338 - Poilievre won the rest.

2) Another conservative leadership election coming up, this time in Alberta. After Premier Jason Kenney was felled, the United Conservative Party is looking for a new leader. The contest is a variety of oddities, one of whom is Danielle Smith - famed for leading the Wildrose Party of years yonder and orchestrating its merger with the Progressive Conservatives before that whole dynasty fell apart. She's attempting a comeback and shockingly looks the front-runner. Flirting with covid scepticism, her signature policy is a Sovereignty Act which will allow Alberta to ignore federal laws it doesn't like - sure the courts will have a few things to say about that. Her main opponent is establishment choice Travis Toews, the finance minister. The result will be announced early October. The general election is in 2023, something for which the NDP has been leading in most of the polls.

3) The question isn't whether Premier François Legault's conservative CAQ wins the Quebec election. It will. It almost certainly looks like a landslide. The question is whether the Quebec Liberals can survive as a rump party, and whether the upstart Conservative Party of Quebec can make a breakthrough.

P.S. Oh, and whether the Parti Québécois survives at all!

I thought Jason Kenn(e)y might survive another cycle.

Laura wanted him to Trott home and spend more time with the kids. 😉

[Deleted]

Sept 13, 2022 15:23:17 GMT redvers said:

Some interesting developments from the land of our Canadian brethren.

1) Surprising no-one, Pierre Poilievre was elected Leader of the Conservative Party (and consequently Leader of the Opposition) in a landslide, winning on the 1st round. Poilievre ran a right-populist campaign, which combined with his charisma produced a lot of grassroots energy that quickly became unbeatable. The wildcard, Patrick Brown (Mayor of Brampton), ran a kind of all-things-to-all-people kamikaze campaign which saw him disqualified. Jean Charest, the former Premier of Quebec, ran on a kind of 'Poilievre will be a Trump' campaign but quickly became evident he would appeal to few in the party. Charest only won 8 ridings out of 338 - Poilievre won the rest.

2) Another conservative leadership election coming up, this time in Alberta. After Premier Jason Kenney was felled, the United Conservative Party is looking for a new leader. The contest is a variety of oddities, one of whom is Danielle Smith - famed for leading the Wildrose Party of years yonder and orchestrating its merger with the Progressive Conservatives before that whole dynasty fell apart. She's attempting a comeback and shockingly looks the front-runner. Flirting with covid scepticism, her signature policy is a Sovereignty Act which will allow Alberta to ignore federal laws it doesn't like - sure the courts will have a few things to say about that. Her main opponent is establishment choice Travis Toews, the finance minister. The result will be announced early October. The general election is in 2023, something for which the NDP has been leading in most of the polls.

3) The question isn't whether Premier François Legault's conservative CAQ wins the Quebec election. It will. It almost certainly looks like a landslide. The question is whether the Quebec Liberals can survive as a rump party, and whether the upstart Conservative Party of Quebec can make a breakthrough.

P.S. Oh, and whether the Parti Québécois survives at all!

If the answer is "non" will they bring the Bloq down with them given the relationship between the two?