|
|
Post by marksenior on Feb 7, 2017 20:03:57 GMT
By election to be held in Markham Thornhill = appointment of current Liberal member as Ambassador to China
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135 
|
Post by Foggy on Feb 7, 2017 21:40:37 GMT
By election to be held in Markham Thornhill = appointment of current Liberal member as Ambassador to China As far as I can tell, that is one of 5 current vacancies in the House. The writ will likely be moved for the by-elections within the coming couple of weeks, which means they must take place by the end of next month. Unfortunately 3 are in safe Liberal seats and 2 in safe Tory ridings, so there likely won't be much psephological interest in them. Provincially I have found 4 vacancies at present – one each in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. The Manitoban constituency is boring as it's ultra-safe for the NDP on their worst day and is even named after a Tommy Douglas (but not the Tommy Douglas!), whilst the Saskatoon—Meewasin by-election could even potentially be a three-way race. However, there could be some sympathy for the previous incumbent who passed away very suddenly. Unnecessary resignations have caused the other two empty seats. Sault Sainte Marie, on the border with the upper peninsula of Michigan, has been quite safely Liberal for over a decade, but has gone both Conservative and NDP at federal elections in that time. Gouin in Montréal had been strongly péquiste, but has taken to voting for Québec Solidaire in recent years. The by-election could give clues as to how much of that was a personal vote for longtime activist Françoise David, who is standing down... as long as the PQ bothers to put up a candidate. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
|
Post by maxque on Feb 8, 2017 7:36:34 GMT
By election to be held in Markham Thornhill = appointment of current Liberal member as Ambassador to China As far as I can tell, that is one of 5 current vacancies in the House. The writ will likely be moved for the by-elections within the coming couple of weeks, which means they must take place by the end of next month. Unfortunately 3 are in safe Liberal seats and 2 in safe Tory ridings, so there likely won't be much psephological interest in them. Provincially I have found 4 vacancies at present – one each in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. The Manitoban constituency is boring as it's ultra-safe for the NDP on their worst day and is even named after a Tommy Douglas (but not the Tommy Douglas!), whilst the Saskatoon—Meewasin by-election could even potentially be a three-way race. However, there could be some sympathy for the previous incumbent who passed away very suddenly. Unnecessary resignations have caused the other two empty seats. Sault Sainte Marie, on the border with the upper peninsula of Michigan, has been quite safely Liberal for over a decade, but has gone both Conservative and NDP at federal elections in that time. Gouin in Montréal had been strongly péquiste, but has taken to voting for Québec Solidaire in recent years. The by-election could give clues as to how much of that was a personal vote for longtime activist Françoise David, who is standing down... as long as the PQ bothers to put up a candidate. The PQ was leaning against, to help a future "convergence" of left-wing Independentist parties, but QS is encouraging them to run. QS tried to recruit all kinds of star candidates (including NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice, which is the federal MP for the area), but they all declined but Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (the more hardline leader of the 2012 student strikes) who is in reflexion. PQ might run Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, which ran in the last PQ leadership race, managed to get enough signatures in an upset to be on ballot and did surprisingly well with 7% on a platform of being more attractive to youth, immigrants and business community and stopping rambling about 1995 referendum. By the way, Lisée decided "no referendum in a first term" and expurged the most nationalist elements of the program, quite surprisingly. Probably a good gamble, there is obviously quite a backslash against nationalism in Quebec right now. |
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Mar 2, 2017 15:55:43 GMT
There will be five federal by-elections in Canada all on the same day-Monday 3rd April 2017.
The ridings that will have by-elections are: Ottawa-Vanier (ON), Calgary Heritage (AB), Calgary Midnapore (AB), Markham-Thornhill (ON), and Saint-Laurent (QC).
Here is a summary of these ridings:
Ottawa-Vanier (ultra-safe Liberal seat)
This has been held continuously by the Liberals in Canada since 1935 (Ottawa East and Ottawa-Vanier are essentially one and the same), even during the Liberals' lowest ebbs of 1984 and 2011. 2011, in fact, was the only time in the riding's history that the Liberal majority (over the NDP) dropped to less than 10%. It is solidly Liberal largely due to having a large Francophone population (French is spoken by nearly a third of this riding's population as a 1st language, and less than half have English as a first language). Nevertheless, thanks to its wealthy suburban parts and the fact it contains the University of Ottawa within its boundaries, both the Conservatives and New Democratic Party have small solid bases of support.
The by-election is taking place due to the death of Mauril Belanger last year from Lou Gehrig's disease at the age of 61. Communications consultant Mona Fortier is the defending candidate, the Conservatives have selected Parliament Hill staffer Adrian Papara, the NDP and the Greens have reselected their 2015 candidates, namely Emilie Taman (a University of Ottawa law professor) and Nirmala 'Nira' Dookeran (an educator and community activist).
Calgary Heritage (ultra-safe Conservative seat)
Like the majority of ridings in Alberta, this (and its direct predecessor, Calgary Southwest) is a very safe Conservative riding indeed. It was newly created in 2015 from the former ridings of Calgary Southeast (1%) and Calgary Southwest (99% of Calgary SW, in fact!), which was represented by former Canadian PM Stephen Harper, whose resignation has triggered this by-election. Even with the Conservatives being knocked back heavily in Alberta recently, it is clear that none of the opposition parties have a realistic chance of winning.
The Conservatives' defending candidate is small business owner Bob Benzen. Physician Scott Forsyth is the Liberals' candidate; the Liberals finished a distant second in 2015 but still drastically reduced the Conservative majority from 60% to 37.8%. The NDP has selected Khalis Ahmed, the Greens Taryn Knorren, the Libertarians Darcy Gerow, and the Christian Heritage Party Jeff Willerton.
Calgary Midnapore (ultra-safe Conservative seat)
This riding is even more safely Conservative than Calgary Heritage (and so was Calgary Southeast, which it largely succeeded in 2015), even though the MP who has just resigned, Jason Kenney (he is seeking the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta), did not have nearly the profile of the aforementioned Stephen Harper. This is relatively similar to Calgary Heritage in demographic and wealth terms.
The Conservatives' defending candidate is former diplomat Stephanie Kusie. The Liberals have reselected Haley Brown, their 2015 candidate. The NDP have selected Holly Hefferman, the Greens Ryan Zudic, and the Christian Heritage Party have selected perennial candidate and anti-abortion activist Larry R. Heather, who for some reason elected to run in this riding instead of Calgary Heritage, which he contested last time as an independent (and he has contested its predecessor ridings in all federal elections since 1984).
Markham-Thornhill (safe Liberal seat)
This new riding was created out of Markham-Unionville and Thornhill in 2015; both the latter ridings still exist despite this. It was notionally marginal when created but proved to be an easy Liberal hold in the event. John McCallum, who resigned to become Canadian Ambassador to China, took up this riding when his former riding of Markham-Unionville became notionally Conservative after losing more than half of its territory to the old Markham-Thornhill in the redistribution (and gained territory from Oak Ridges-Markham, which was essentially destroyed in said redistribution, with its MP Paul Calandra standing in Markham-Southville in 2015; Mr Calandra was defeated by the Liberal candidate, Jane Philpott).
The candidates are TBC at present. I will update this when I have the necessary information; nominations close soon.
Saint-Laurent (ultra-safe Liberal seat)
One of the safest Liberal ridings in Canada; Bloc Quebecois have never been able to make a real challenge to the Liberals even in their best years. This part of Montreal is one of the most diverse seats in Canada, with only 50.7% of the population at the last census recorded as speaking either French or English as their first language; there is a considerable Arabic and Chinese population in this riding. The NDP made a good effort in 2011, achieving a 19.3% swing in their favour, but they did not even come close to unseating the Liberals' Stephane Dion. His resignation to become Canada's Ambassador to the EU and Germany has triggered this by-election.
So far, only one candidate-Quebecois Green Party Deputy Leader Daniel Green-has been confirmed at the moment. Other candidates coming soon-I will update this post when I have the essential information.
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
|
Post by Foggy on Mar 2, 2017 23:37:36 GMT
There will be five federal by-elections in Canada all on the same day-Monday 3rd April 2017. The ridings that will have by-elections are: Ottawa-Vanier (ON), Calgary Heritage (AB), Calgary Midnapore (AB), Markham-Thornhill (ON), and Saint-Laurent (QC). Here is a summary of these ridings: Ottawa-Vanier (ultra-safe Liberal seat) Calgary Heritage (ultra-safe Conservative seat) Calgary Midnapore (ultra-safe Conservative seat) Markham-Thornhill (safe Liberal seat) Saint-Laurent (ultra-safe Liberal seat) Thanks for the write-up. I noticed that Vanier had been called a few weeks ago, and it seems that the writ to fill the other 4 vacancies followed shortly thereafter. As I noted a few posts up, none of the seats is likely to change hands, and your description of all of them appears to confirm this!  The Meewasin by-election that I mentioned in the same post is happening today. The other 3 provincial vacancies haven't been called yet. |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
|
Post by Sibboleth on Mar 3, 2017 19:02:52 GMT
Sask NDP gain  |
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
|
Post by Foggy on Mar 4, 2017 6:45:46 GMT
Sask NDP gain I can't figure out Sask. The narrative of the last two elections was that Brad Wall walks on water and no NDP seat was truly safe. Now based on one by-election, the Dippers are claiming that people are finally fed up of Wall and that no Sask Party seat in urban areas is guaranteed to stick with him. Since AFAIK there hasn't been a credible province-wide poll for over 6 months, it's impossible to tell from afar if this is a genuine trend. The New Democrats were still 16 points behind in that last survey, for what it's worth. The performance of the minor candidates does show that (uniquely in Canada since the Greens broke through in BC, PEI and NB) there are still only two parties in Saskatchewan that matter, which has been the case for at least 14 years in that province. |
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
|
Post by Foggy on May 1, 2017 22:12:17 GMT
Whilst it wouldn't surprise me if the result were something like that province-wide, you appear to have cherry-picked one of the few polls that still shows the Greens in a distant third place on Vancouver Island. The Liberals look to be on course to finish third in the popular vote there according to most polling data, which could cost Christy Clark her majority. The Gouin by-election has been called for May 29th. |
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
|
Post by Foggy on May 1, 2017 22:35:19 GMT
Whilst it wouldn't surprise me if the result were something like that province-wide, you appear to have cherry-picked one of the few polls that still shows the Greens in a distant third place on Vancouver Island. The Liberals look to be on course to finish third in the popular vote there according to most polling data, which could cost Christy Clark her majority. I just picked the most recent poll. Then I suggest you look at the averages instead. Either the Vancouver Island subsample is tiny on that poll, it's an outlier or Ipsos is demonstrating bias against the Greens and/or towards the Liberals. EDIT: The averaging page has been updated since I last checked and is now more in line with that Ipsos poll... but the polls were wrong last time. |
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
|
Post by Foggy on May 2, 2017 3:28:49 GMT
I just picked the most recent poll. Then I suggest you look at the averages instead. Either the Vancouver Island subsample is tiny on that poll, it's an outlier or Ipsos is demonstrating bias against the Greens and/or towards the Liberals. Small sample size suspicions confirmed: The reality is of course that Andrew Weaver will have been sworn in as Premier by the end of the month. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
|
Post by maxque on May 4, 2017 19:47:59 GMT
To be fair, too, Ipsos isn't seen as a good poster in Canada.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 10, 2017 5:06:28 GMT
BritishColumbia's ongoing election is incredibly close:
The Liberals are ~3% ahead, but presently the SeatDistribution is 43:42:2 Greenies (whose leader recently said, that he can cooperate well with the Lib-woman, while not at all with the NDP-man; but his supporters will/would make much pressure to end the reign of the unpopular PM).
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 10, 2017 5:20:10 GMT
With most counted it stands:
LIB 41.5 = 43
NDP 39.5 = 41
GRN 16.5 = 3
OTH 3.5
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 10, 2017 6:01:39 GMT
Decisive seats:
LIB ahead:
Coquitlam-BurkeMountain
NDP ahead:
Courtenay-Comox
MapleRidge-Mission
Vancouver-FalseCreek
The PostalVotes will be counted in some days...
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 10, 2017 6:33:33 GMT
41.2% = 41-45 LIB
39.8% = 39-43 NDP
16.4% = 3 GREENS
A fifth seat is in play: Richmond-Queensborough.
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 10, 2017 7:03:36 GMT
NDP has 41, Lib too and are leading in 2.
Perhaps PostalVotes will produce change.
Certainly a ReCount will happen in Court.-C., where the Lib.s lost their 44/87 by 9 votes!
|
|
Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
|
Post by Georg Ebner on May 10, 2017 7:22:53 GMT
Provisorical result:
43 LIBERALS
41 NDP
03 GREENS
A woman, who is realiter a man ("TransGender", with an awful face, the first candidate of that sort), narrowly lost in Vancouver-FalseCreek.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 10, 2017 8:37:11 GMT
What an appalling remark.
|
|
|
|
Post by MeirionGwril on May 10, 2017 10:36:02 GMT
OMG - George Ebner has an awful face too
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 10, 2017 10:59:40 GMT
Moderator notice. As with the Prince Philip thread, I am not going to edit comments unless they are obscene or libelous, unless requested by Ian.
That said, the remark is in very poor taste and I would encourage Georg to reflect upon his comment and whether he feels it is necessary.
|
|
