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Post by redvers on Mar 24, 2021 17:43:00 GMT
Quick note that results will not be released until Saturday
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,252
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Post by peterl on Mar 24, 2021 18:16:49 GMT
Counted on Thursday, released on Saturday. Have N+L contracted out to Tower Hamlets?
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 24, 2021 18:31:32 GMT
Counted on Thursday, released on Saturday. Have N+L contracted out to Tower Hamlets? the many suggestions that elections have been contracted out to Tower Hamlets, ignore the fact that they would almost certainly fail to return the tender documents on time....
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Post by redvers on Mar 24, 2021 18:45:02 GMT
As I have inferred many a time on this thread, this NL election is just about the most farcical I have ever observed in Canada. At least above the local level.
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Post by redvers on Mar 28, 2021 1:08:33 GMT
So despite the utter mess of this election, the Liberals have been rewarded with a majority. They needed 21 seats and got 22, a gain of 2. Both the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP lost their leaders, losing 2 and 1 seats respectively. The other 3 were held by independents, all of whom were ex-Liberal MLAs. This continues a trend of Canadian governments gaining seats during the pandemic.
Be interesting if anyone can work out how different the votes were between people who voted before the first delay, and those who voted between Feb 13th and now.
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,251
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Post by Georg Ebner on Mar 28, 2021 23:38:25 GMT
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
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Post by Foggy on Mar 29, 2021 12:02:22 GMT
The Labrador peninsula was as all over the place as ever, I see. Cartwright—L'Anse au Clair had the biggest provincewide swing to the Liberals, Torngat Mountains had the largest swing to the Tories, the NDP held the constituency they'd only gained by the skin of their teeth last time, and the politically incorrect (about indigenous Canadians) ex-Liberal independent won the other seat.
Despite some surprises in individual ridings, the overall result is roughly what you'd have expected without the farce of constant delays and making up the rules as they go along. It still isn't as good for the Liberals as what polls had been indicating a few months ago, mind.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 1, 2021 12:49:03 GMT
768 provincial MPs (in late 2020):
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Post by redvers on Apr 1, 2021 13:33:57 GMT
768 provincial MPs (in late 2020): This is actually really cool
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
Posts: 5,535
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Post by Foggy on Apr 2, 2021 6:53:57 GMT
768 provincial MPs (in late 2020): Roberval sticks out there, which would suggest that by-elections are not included. Looks like the map simply takes the results of the last general election in each province or territory and puts it on a map of all of Canada. The dark green colouring for the Sask Party could also be slightly misleading to the uninitiated. Still an impressive image though.
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Post by redvers on Apr 11, 2021 13:02:27 GMT
Yukon election tomorrow. Nobody has any real idea who is going to win. There's only been 1 poll this campaign, and it showed the Liberals, the Yukon Party (the conservative party), and the NDP all on about 32% of the vote. With about 42,100 people spread over 474,391 km2, pretty hard to gauge what's going on. 11 of the 19 ridings are located in the territory's capital, Whitehorse. Liberal Premier Sandy Silver represents one of the non-Whitehorse ridings - he's hoping to lead the Liberals to their first successful re-election. The Yukon Party is hoping to come back after 5 years out of power. For the NDP, it's 21 years. Some useful reading: www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yukon-election-5-ridings-to-watch-2021-1.59804452011 result: Liberals - 11 (39.4%) Yukon Party - 6 (33.4%) NDP - 2 (26.2%)
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 11, 2021 18:26:13 GMT
I may be allowed to post once again this link with the Yukon-results 2016: drive.google.com/drive/folders/13447ShsLmiY-CB1n4TVNOx1QwGch8BS6?usp=sharing Here are the TargetLists: Lib.-vs.-YP: Lib.-vs.-NDP: YP-vs.-NDP:
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Post by redvers on Apr 11, 2021 19:52:21 GMT
Worth pointing out that, despite it being 4th on Georg's target list above, the Yukon Party has failed to field a candidate in Vuntut Gwitchin, despite losing by only 7 votes last time. However, there may be no grand reason for this other than a failure to find a candidate - there are only 163 electors in the whole district!
It's hard to really talk about safe seats for any party in Yukon. Because the electorate numbers in each district are so small, the potential personal vote is enormous - the person running the local cornerstore is going to have a good shot, whatever party they're in!
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Long may it rain
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Post by Foggy on Apr 13, 2021 5:24:04 GMT
Worth pointing out that, despite it being 4th on Georg's target list above, the Yukon Party has failed to field a candidate in Vuntut Gwitchin, despite losing by only 7 votes last time. However, there may be no grand reason for this other than a failure to find a candidate - there are only 163 electors in the whole district! And so it has come to pass that Old Crow is tied at 78 votes apiece. There'll be a judicial recount, and if it's still a tie, then there'll likely be a by-election in which the YP would probably manage to find a candidate. That happened in Nunavut in 2013/14, but the difference there is that territorial elections are officially non-partisan. Normally Canadian media outlets project which party they think will form the next government, then declare if they think it'll be a majority or minority. Sometimes this takes mere minutes. CBC has taken the unusual step of calling that the next territorial government will be a minority one, but has yet to declare which party will form it. This has taken two and a half hours since the close of polls. The current seat totals as I write are 8 Liberals, 7 for the Yukon Party and 3 for the NDP, but the YP are clearly leading the popular vote. It's the dynamics of the 2019 federal election repeating themselves in microcosm...
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Apr 13, 2021 7:10:29 GMT
Worth pointing out that, despite it being 4th on Georg's target list above, the Yukon Party has failed to field a candidate in Vuntut Gwitchin, despite losing by only 7 votes last time. However, there may be no grand reason for this other than a failure to find a candidate - there are only 163 electors in the whole district! And so it has come to pass that Old Crow is tied at 78 votes apiece. There'll be a judicial recount, and if it's still a tie, then there'll likely be a by-election in which the YP would probably manage to find a candidate. That happened in Nunavut in 2013/14, but the difference there is that territorial elections are officially non-partisan. Normally Canadian media outlets project which party they think will form the next government, then declare if they think it'll be a majority or minority. Sometimes this takes mere minutes. CBC has taken the unusual step of calling that the next territorial government will be a minority one, but has yet to declare which party will form it. This has taken two and a half hours since the close of polls. The current seat totals as I write are 8 Liberals, 7 for the Yukon Party and 3 for the NDP, but the YP are clearly leading the popular vote. It's the dynamics of the 2019 federal election repeating themselves in microcosm... The final numbers are 8-8-2 with the one undecided Riding, so who forms minority government may depend on who wins Old Crow, although according to CBC the Liberals will get the first opportunity as the incumbent administration. I’m not sure about your interpretation of how Vuntut Gwitchin will be decided; according to a Professor of politics on CBC’s coverage there will be a standard recount by the Electoral Commission today, and if there remains a tie, the candidates will immediately draw lots to determine a winner.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
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Post by Foggy on Apr 13, 2021 7:23:33 GMT
And so it has come to pass that Old Crow is tied at 78 votes apiece. There'll be a judicial recount, and if it's still a tie, then there'll likely be a by-election in which the YP would probably manage to find a candidate. That happened in Nunavut in 2013/14, but the difference there is that territorial elections are officially non-partisan. Normally Canadian media outlets project which party they think will form the next government, then declare if they think it'll be a majority or minority. Sometimes this takes mere minutes. CBC has taken the unusual step of calling that the next territorial government will be a minority one, but has yet to declare which party will form it. This has taken two and a half hours since the close of polls. The current seat totals as I write are 8 Liberals, 7 for the Yukon Party and 3 for the NDP, but the YP are clearly leading the popular vote. It's the dynamics of the 2019 federal election repeating themselves in microcosm... The final numbers are 8-8-2 with the one undecided Riding, so who forms minority government may depend on who wins Old Crow, although according to CBC the Liberals will get the first opportunity as the incumbent administration. I’m not sure about your interpretation of how Vuntut Gwitchin will be decided; according to a Professor of politics on CBC’s coverage there will be a standard recount by the Electoral Commission today, and if there remains a tie, the candidates will immediately draw lots to determine a winner. You are (or rather, the Professor is) probably correct there. The governing statutes can have different solutions to a tie across the various jurisdictions in Canada, but the precedent from Nunavut would at least be fairer. If there is to be a by-election, the 2019 PEI election also comes to mind. The PCs won 12 seats on the night there, but have since clawed their way up to 14 seats and a majority government thanks to vacancies. Another by-election could come about if Sandy Silver fails to obtain the confidence of the Assembly, but politicians stepping down from their seat when they give up leadership of their party seems to be less common in the Yukon than in the Provinces and in federal politics. With all ordinary ballots counted, the only independent (and eccentric) candidate across the whole territory garnered all of 26 votes. The Greens and didn't run this time and I'm not sure if any other party is even registered anymore. It occurs to be that YP leader – and quite possibly the next Premier – Currie Dixon's middle name ought to be Pcworld or Carphone-Warehouse.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 13, 2021 11:27:33 GMT
When you wrote "Old Crow", did you mean Vuntut Gwitchin? If so, why?
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Post by redvers on Apr 13, 2021 11:52:12 GMT
When you wrote "Old Crow", did you mean Vuntut Gwitchin? If so, why? Old name of the riding. If there's still a tie after the judicial recount, Yukon law resolves it through drawing lots. Precedent in another territory means zip.
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Post by redvers on Apr 14, 2021 0:58:38 GMT
So just to make clear where things stand as of right now.
Liberals: 8 (-3 from 2011) Yukon Party: 8 (up 2) NDP: 2 (no change)
However, the Yukon Party are way ahead on the popular vote with 39.35%. Liberals on 32.32%. NDP on 28.19%. The new Yukon Party leader regained his old seat of Copperbelt North (he did not stand in 2016), and also gained Porter Creek Centre (both are Whitehorse ridings). The Liberals did manage to hold onto Mayo-Tatchun after its previous MLA became an independent.
As mentioned, the outstanding seat is Vuntut Gwitchin with its tie between the Liberals and NDP.
One would have to assume, regardless of what happens in Vuntut Gwitchin, there's more chance of an accommodation between the Liberals and the NDP than anything else.
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 14, 2021 8:40:47 GMT
When you wrote "Old Crow", did you mean Vuntut Gwitchin? If so, why? Old name of the riding. Old Crow is the name of the village. Vuntut Gwitchin is the name of the people that live in it.
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