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Post by johnloony on Nov 3, 2017 0:02:38 GMT
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Nov 6, 2017 0:40:08 GMT
We're back up to four vacancies in the House of Commons now. The by-elections must be called for April at the latest. Somewhat surprisingly given how long seats are often left vacant in Canadian legislatures, these by-elections have been called for... next month! There is one Conservative-held riding in BC where the Liberals think they can win with a 'star candidate' (a former mayor of the area, by the looks of things). A vacancy is pending at the end of the month in a district in New Brunswick, but it's likely that any issuing of writs for a by-election would be pre-empted by a general election call. There are municipal elections in Québec today. Partisan alignments are either different or non-existent, but the most high-profile race involves the incumbent Denis Coderre in Montréal, who is clearly a Liberal at both federal and provincial levels – and is actually facing a decent challenge for City Hall from Valérie Plante. With 20 minutes left of the voting period, turnout is said to be on the low side. ETA: Votes are still being counted, but CBC projects that Plante has won the mayoralty. |
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Nov 28, 2017 9:01:39 GMT
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 28, 2017 13:32:05 GMT
Not a shock. Greens actually spent part of the year being 2nd in PEI provincial polls and their leaders usually tops the question about "which party leader you want has PM?".
It's no surprise given NDP is stuck outside of the Assembly and PEI PC is worthless and in fact didn't managed to poll close to their last time results since last election (they did 37%, polls since then vary between 32 and 14%). Them having 3 different permanent leaders in the last four years and, with counting interim leaders, 6 in the last 7 years probably doesn't help.
Neither did having a interim leader kicking the previous leader out of the party and having the party appointing an interim leader and the caucus someone else and having the party threaten to expell the caucus doesn't help. Losers of interim leadership races defecting to Liberals neither.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Dec 12, 2017 9:27:53 GMT
There were four federal by-elections yesterday with the Liberals holding two seats (in N&L and Ontario) and the Conservatives one (in Saskatchewan). In BC there was a Liberal gain from the Tories in Surrey South-White Rock which backs up (as per the Liberal gain in Quebec recently) that they are polling better in BC and Quebec than they did at the Federal election in 2015. enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?ed=1703&lang=e |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Dec 13, 2017 4:07:24 GMT
There were four federal by-elections yesterday with the Liberals holding two seats (in N&L and Ontario) and the Conservatives one (in Saskatchewan). In BC there was a Liberal gain from the Tories in Surrey South-White Rock which backs up (as per the Liberal gain in Quebec recently) that they are polling better in BC and Quebec than they did at the Federal election in 2015. enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?ed=1703&lang=eThe new Conservative leader Andrew Scheer must be coming under a lot of pressure after losing the two seats in byelections. After all, the Liberals have been in power for two years now - the honeymoon should be over by now. To be fair to him, I would say the issues for losing are local. Lac-Saint-Jean isn't a naturally Conservative region, it's mainly than the outgoing MP had an huge personal vote. Surrey South would have been lost in 2015 if the Conservative candidate would not have been Dianne Watts, the former extremely popular mayor of Surrey (she always got reeelected in landslides). She resigned to become the leader of the BC Liberals (BC is wierd, you have BCNDP (federal NDP + left-wing Liberals) and BCLibs (most Liberals + conservative, love to self-style themselves the "free-entreprise coalition"). |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Dec 13, 2017 4:33:54 GMT
The new Conservative leader Andrew Scheer must be coming under a lot of pressure after losing the two seats in byelections. After all, the Liberals have been in power for two years now - the honeymoon should be over by now. To be fair to him, I would say the issues for losing are local. Lac-Saint-Jean isn't a naturally Conservative region, it's mainly than the outgoing MP had an huge personal vote. Surrey South would have been lost in 2015 if the Conservative candidate would not have been Dianne Watts, the former extremely popular mayor of Surrey (she always got reeelected in landslides). She resigned to become the leader of the BC Liberals (BC is weird, you have BCNDP (federal NDP + left-wing Liberals) and BCLibs (most Liberals + conservative, love to self-style themselves the "free-enterprise coalition"). Equally it sounds like the Liberals might not have gained that seat in BC had their candidate been anyone other than Gordon Hogg. The new Liberal MP in Scarborough—Agincourt is the widow of the previous incumbent but that is a seat which might otherwise be trending Conservative (let's see how it votes next year at the provincial election). Her first name is Jean so I assumed at first that she might have been a francophone male! |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Dec 14, 2017 0:11:04 GMT
Two things stand out from the by-elections: First, the low turnouts, ranging from 21% in Newfoundland to 38% in the hotly-contested riding in BC. I suspect that may reflect satisfaction with the government - people have no reason to come out and protest. It was similar during the 1997-2001 parliament here, when Blair was hugely popular. Second, how many polling districts each riding has, e.g. in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity there are over 200, with an average of sixty votes cast in each. I guess that's understandable in rural areas with lots of isolated settlements and little villages, but even the urban ridings have over 150. Why so many? They must struggle to find enough buildings to use as polling stations. In urban areas, multiple (up to 10) polling stations share the same polling station. They usually have between 250 and 500 elector each. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 15, 2017 3:26:37 GMT
In the ByElection in CalgaryLougheed UCP's Kenney is receiving (with 14/22 boots counted) ~74%!
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jan 23, 2018 21:41:03 GMT
In Quebec CAQ is neck-to-neck with PLQ at 30%, PQ at 18-25, QS not far behind.
Could CAQ be another ADQ? A hung parliament as in 2007? Or would be the third party low enough for enabling a majority in parliament?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 23, 2018 22:09:30 GMT
In the ByElection in CalgaryLougheed UCP's Kenney is receiving (with 14/22 boots counted) ~74%! British comedy viewers will be amused to know that he replaced one "Dave Rodney". |
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2018 14:07:16 GMT
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Hash
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Post by Hash on May 9, 2018 16:32:56 GMT
Leeds-Grenville is near my neck of the woods and I've been down there a few times. It is located in rural Eastern Ontario, along the St. Lawrence River (the border with the United States) and in between Ottawa and Kingston. The two counties of Leeds and Grenville have been a single (united) county since before Confederation. The western/northwestern part of the area (the Rideau Lakes tourist region) is more rugged, part of the Frontenac Axis, while the rest is fairly flat, fertile countryside. The main town is Brockville (pop. 21,000), a fairly pleasant town with a nice 19th century downtown along the St. Lawrence River, which forms a welcome contrast to the shitholes like Ogdensburg across the river in upstate NY. The other major populated municipalities are North Grenville (16.5k), which is high-growth Ottawa exurbia; Rideau Lakes twp. (10.3k), which is a main tourist/cottage area; and Gananoque (5.1k), a cute small town which serves as one of the main access point to the Thousand Islands.
Like much of Loyalist-settled rural Eastern Ontario, Leeds-Grenville is solid Tory country which has only rarely voted for a party other than the Tories either provincially or federally. Intriguingly, the Liberals overcame a 38 pt. Tory majority in 1984 to gain the seat in the 1988 free trade election, perhaps due to lingering UEL nationalism/anti-Americanism or opposition to free trade in the riding's old small manufacturing towns. The division of the right allowed the Liberals to hold on to the seat thereafter until 2004, although they won by narrow margins in both 1997 (7.2% on the PCs) and particularly 2000 (0.1% on Gord Brown for the CA). The Conservatives handily gained the seat in 2004 and have held it since without much trouble, their majorities consistently growing in 2006, 2008 and 2011 (when the Tories won over 60% against 18% for the NDP and 16% for the Liberals). Nevertheless, in 2015, Gord Brown won by 'only' 6.8% over the Liberals, who swept most of Brockville and Gananoque. Provincially, the Conservative stranglehold of the area is even more impressive: it seems the last time anyone other than the Tories represented this region at Queen's Park was a one-term Liberal in 1934 from Leeds and prior to that a two-term Liberal in 1872-79 from Grenville. The PCs won the seat by over 35 points in 2014 with the Liberals on just 20%, and they will presumably win it by even more next month.
Which is to say that the by-election will be boring.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 11, 2018 3:12:09 GMT
There is to be a more interesting by-election than the one detailed above.
Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for the BC riding of Burnaby South, is to resign in order to stand as an independent candidate for the mayoralty of Vancouver. His majority over the Liberals in 2015 was just 547, and he'd only won the predecessor seat of Burnaby—Douglas by 1,011 votes over the Conservatives in 2011.
If the NDP put up a boring local candidate, the other two main parties will certainly be sniffing a chance of a gain. There have though already been whispers that Jagmeet Singh, a federal leader without a current seat in any legislature, might want to put his money where his mouth is and try to represent the area in the House, at least until the next general election (when he'd probably seek a nomination in Ontario).
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2018 17:58:06 GMT
There is to be a more interesting by-election than the one detailed above. Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for the BC riding of Burnaby South, is to resign in order to stand as an independent candidate for the mayoralty of Vancouver. His majority over the Liberals in 2015 was just 547, and he'd only won the predecessor seat of Burnaby—Douglas by 1,011 votes over the Conservatives in 2011. If the NDP put up a boring local candidate, the other two main parties will certainly be sniffing a chance of a gain. There have though already been whispers that Jagmeet Singh, a federal leader without a current seat in any legislature, might want to put his money where his mouth is and try to represent the area in the House, at least until the next general election (when he'd probably seek a nomination in Ontario). I think whichever (or perhaps even both) of the opposition parties that end up losing in this, it will be a major blow to them. The Conservatives, although not polling well in BC at the moment, and having lost South Surrey-White Rock will want this as it has always been a target; the NDP will obviously want to hold it as well, yet have also polled badly recently. It's far too early to make a prediction. I'm not certain that Stewart would win the Vancouver election either. Another prospective by-election (other than the one in Outremont) is in the Saint Leonard-Saint Michel riding, although I'd struggle to see any circumstances in which the Liberals lose the seat. We still don't have a date for the Chicoutimi-Le Fjord by-election either. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 11, 2018 18:05:48 GMT
As is the norm in Canada, I think the government was waiting for multiple vacancies to pile up before they move the writ. All of those by-elections will probably be held on the same date, but that date might still be a few months away.
Outremont and Chicoutimi ought to be interesting as you say. You have to be wary of provincial/federal crossovers and equivalency, but one factor in BC could be that the NDP is now the incumbent government there. I agree that Stewart may well fail to become mayor of Vancouver too.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2018 23:30:40 GMT
EKOS has the Dippers 10 points up. NDP 41 PC 31 Liberals 19 Greens 7 Others 2 |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 25, 2018 5:30:40 GMT
And now we have leaks than Forum Research Friday poll has the NDP just below 50%, with PC 15 to 20% behind.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on May 25, 2018 7:59:41 GMT
And now we have leaks than Forum Research Friday poll has the NDP just below 50%, with PC 15 to 20% behind. Ontario Tories.  Specialists in throwing away elections... |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 25, 2018 10:01:55 GMT
Lets wait and see, some people may have second thoughts about the NDP now (though I hope not, of course)
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