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Post by greenhert on May 25, 2018 11:24:06 GMT
On current polling, Premier Kathleen Wynne is in real trouble and may lose her seat of Don Valley West, if narrowly. However, they also show that Doug Ford will not be on course to win Etobicoke North unless his "leader bonus" will generate enough extra votes (the Ontario Conservatives finished third in that riding in 2014).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 25, 2018 11:30:11 GMT
How disappointing there's been no repeat of the "evil reptilian kitten eater from another planet" incident.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 25, 2018 11:53:44 GMT
And now we have leaks than Forum Research Friday poll has the NDP just below 50%, with PC 15 to 20% behind. Numbers are NDP 47, PC 33, Liberal 14. |
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Post by Deleted on May 26, 2018 9:18:03 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 26, 2018 10:16:23 GMT
A few other polls out recently are still showing it very close, but that the NDP has momentum is beyond much doubt.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 27, 2018 6:48:48 GMT
that the NDP has momentum is beyond much doubt. Still, how much does Ford matter? Won't NDP be simply seen as a continuation of Wynne's (quite left) course? Are Rae-memories alive? |
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2018 19:15:31 GMT
It's not clear what a better than expected/good result for the Ontario Liberals would be? More than 12?
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 27, 2018 21:39:08 GMT
that the NDP has momentum is beyond much doubt. Still, how much does Ford matter? Won't NDP be simply seen as a continuation of Wynne's (quite left) course? Are Rae-memories alive? 1. He's hated by the "establishment" and Liberal voters in Toronto, as him and his brother led a war on them during their term in office. 2. Not really, NDP goes on a populist tone to be seen as quite different. 3. Not really, 1/3 of electors are too young to remember that era and Ontario is the main area immigrants go, so there is at least 1 million of electors who where not living in Canada during Rae premiership. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 27, 2018 21:47:20 GMT
It's not clear what a better than expected/good result for the Ontario Liberals would be? More than 12? Yes, in the sense that it would see them retain official caucus status (often wrongly referred to as 'party status' by the Canadian media) within the legislature. There are some ridings in Toronto and Ottawa where the main beneficiaries of any anti-Ford vote should still be the Liberal incumbents. Anecdotally, my father says he saw a lot of red lawn signs in the latter city over the past week when he was visiting my sister. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 27, 2018 22:58:04 GMT
It's not clear what a better than expected/good result for the Ontario Liberals would be? More than 12? Yes, in the sense that it would see them retain official caucus status (often wrongly referred to as 'party status' by the Canadian media) within the legislature. There are some ridings in Toronto and Ottawa where the main beneficiaries of any anti-Ford vote should still be the Liberal incumbents. Anecdotally, my father says he saw a lot of red lawn signs in the latter city over the past week when he was visiting my sister. The official party status threshold in Ontario is 8, not 12 (that's in Canadian Commons). |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 27, 2018 23:04:45 GMT
Yes, in the sense that it would see them retain official caucus status (often wrongly referred to as 'party status' by the Canadian media) within the legislature. There are some ridings in Toronto and Ottawa where the main beneficiaries of any anti-Ford vote should still be the Liberal incumbents. Anecdotally, my father says he saw a lot of red lawn signs in the latter city over the past week when he was visiting my sister. The official party status threshold in Ontario is 8, not 12 (that's in Canadian Commons). Thank you for the clarification. Of course, every party lawfully registered with Elections Ontario is technically an 'official party'.  |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 27, 2018 23:40:43 GMT
Still, how much does Ford matter? Won't NDP be simply seen as a continuation of Wynne's (quite left) course? Are Rae-memories alive? 1. He's hated by the "establishment" and Liberal voters in Toronto, as him and his brother led a war on them during their term in office. 2. Not really, NDP goes on a populist tone to be seen as quite different. 3. Not really, 1/3 of electors are too young to remember that era and Ontario is the main area immigrants go, so there is at least 1 million of electors who where not living in Canada during Rae premiership. 1. & 3. apply "only" to minorities of voters. 2.: It will perhaps indeed help NDP, that their leader appealed already last time more to the WorkingClass-people in the SW than to BoBos in Toronto (didn't she?). |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 28, 2018 2:14:52 GMT
1. He's hated by the "establishment" and Liberal voters in Toronto, as him and his brother led a war on them during their term in office. 2. Not really, NDP goes on a populist tone to be seen as quite different. 3. Not really, 1/3 of electors are too young to remember that era and Ontario is the main area immigrants go, so there is at least 1 million of electors who where not living in Canada during Rae premiership. 1. & 3. apply "only" to minorities of voters. 2.: It will perhaps indeed help NDP, that their leader appealed already last time more to the WorkingClass-people in the SW than to BoBos in Toronto (didn't she?). 1. applies mostly in Toronto. Outer Toronto likes Ford a lot (more than the usual PC candidate), due to the socalled "Ford Nation". Inner Toronto hates him (more than the usual PC candidate), for the same reasons. It's a minority, but given the weight of Toronto, it will be relevent in the result. 3. Well, young voters + immigrants is 40 to 50% of electors, it's quite relevent. And you are right for 2, it caused them to lose most of their Toronto seats (but to gain in the working class non-Toronto area, like in Oshawa). Had she not gained those seats, she would have been removed (as a net lost would have been bad). |
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2018 19:40:44 GMT
Calculated Politics has had some erratic predictions despite their regularity; it must use every poll. Today they predict 66 for the PCs (although Ford loses Etobicoke North to the NDP), 47 for the NDP, 10 for the Liberals (Don Valley West is a tossup), and a Green-leaning tossup in Guelph.
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2018 20:18:52 GMT
Forgive my ignorance, but what on Earth did the Ontario Liberals do to make themselves quite so unpopular? Or have they just been in government for too long?
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Post by Foggy on May 29, 2018 20:34:53 GMT
Forgive my ignorance, but what on Earth did the Ontario Liberals do to make themselves quite so unpopular? Or have they just been in government for too long? Despite having contacts in Ontario, I'm really not sure. The only issues the media appear to mention are ballooning provincial debt (which has happened under all 3 main parties over the past 30 years, and will continue to happen whatever the outcome of the forthcoming election), increased water bills following privatisation, the closure of an isotope factory and hesitation over how long to keep open another nuclear plant. They have, as you say, been in power for 15 years when the PCs had been in charge for 50 of the preceding 60 years, so that must be a factor too. Wynne came out of the last televised leaders' debate on Sunday night looking more reserved and responsible than her challengers. I don't think it'll cause a huge late swing back towards the incumbent, but it might keep the Liberals in double figures in terms of seats. The Tories look scared of a possible NDP victory, given all the dirt they've tried to fling at a handful of Dippers based on old social media posts, though the other parties have done the same for some PC candidates. The Guelph result should be an interesting one to look out for on election night. |
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2018 20:35:02 GMT
Forgive my ignorance, but what on Earth did the Ontario Liberals do to make themselves quite so unpopular? Or have they just been in government for too long? tbf doesn't canadian politics doesnt just swing like this. Didn't the NDP sweep seats in Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, etc. in 2011 and then just get swept aside by the liberals in 2015. Theyve had 5 or 6 parties sit as her majesty's official opposition in the last 30 uears |
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Post by Foggy on May 29, 2018 20:59:55 GMT
Forgive my ignorance, but what on Earth did the Ontario Liberals do to make themselves quite so unpopular? Or have they just been in government for too long? tbf doesn't canadian politics doesnt just swing like this. Didn't the NDP sweep seats in Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, etc. in 2011 and then just get swept aside by the liberals in 2015. Theyve had 5 or 6 parties sit as her majesty's official opposition in the last 30 uears The NDP won 1 seat in Alberta in 2011, and won it again in 2015. The Liberal gains in that province federally were from the Conservatives. The NDP had swept Alberta provincially earlier in 2015, which may be the source of your confusion here. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 29, 2018 22:04:12 GMT
Forgive my ignorance, but what on Earth did the Ontario Liberals do to make themselves quite so unpopular? Or have they just been in government for too long? They've run a low-key bad government since they took power. But that was fine for the electorate because they'd had enough of High Energy trainwreck governments. The main thing that's turned the situation toxic is energy policy: an incompetently executed privatisation and dreadfully planned green levies etc. have sent energy bills through the roof and there's a perception that the OLP don't care. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on May 29, 2018 22:44:51 GMT
Forgive my ignorance, but what on Earth did the Ontario Liberals do to make themselves quite so unpopular? Or have they just been in government for too long? They've run a low-key bad government since they took power. But that was fine for the electorate because they'd had enough of High Energy trainwreck governments. The main thing that's turned the situation toxic is energy policy: an incompetently executed privatisation and dreadfully planned green levies etc. have sent energy bills through the roof and there's a perception that the OLP don't care. Ah yes, the 'cap and trade' scheme they signed up to alongside Québec and California slipped my mind. That's been getting a lot of bad press too, though strangely the right have attacked some of the federal government's approach to environmental issues during the campaign in a rare conflagration with provincial policy areas. As you say, all these controversies fall under the heading of 'energy' at any rate, which if Ontario voters were sensible should mean we'd be on course for a Green landslide...  |
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