stb12
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 21:53:01 GMT
Kensington and Bayswater
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 1, 2024 1:10:11 GMT
Notional results since 1945. The 2019 result is the 'official' (Thrasher & Rallings) notional - the others are my own work | | Con | Lab | Lib | UM | | | | | | | | 1945 | 54.2% | 37.9% | 7.7% | | | 1950 | 59.0% | 32.9% | 7.5% | | | 1951 | 61.9% | 36.5% | 1.6% | | | 1955 | 65.6% | 34.4% | | | | 1959 | 59.8% | 26.8% | 9.7% | 3.6% | | 1964 | 55.7% | 32.3% | 12.0% | | | 1966 | 52.4% | 36.1% | 11.5% | |
| | Con | Lab | Lib/LD | Grn | | | | | | | | 1970 | 58.7% | 35.7% | 5.3% | | | 1974 | 51.4% | 27.8% | 20.5% | | | 1974 | 50.9% | 32.9% | 15.9% | | | 1979 | 56.9% | 29.8% | 10.8% | | | 1983 | 52.6% | 24.1% | 21.6% | 1.2% | | 1987 | 54.3% | 26.8% | 16.9% | 1.7% | | 1992 | 55.9% | 31.3% | 10.6% | 1.6 |
| | Con | Lab | LD | Grn | Ref/UKIP/
BXP | | | | | | | | | 1997 | 41.4% | 42.3% | 13.1% | | 1.7% | | 2001 | 40.5% | 38.1% | 15.1% | 4.0% | 1.0% | | 2005 | 42.8% | 30.5% | 19.9% | 4.6% | 1.2% | | 2010 | 48.9% | 27.1% | 19.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% | | 2015 | 52.0% | 31.8% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.4% | | 2017 | 42.1% | 43.2% | 11.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | | 2019 | 38.3% | 39.0% | 20.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 7, 2024 16:38:20 GMT
SOPN: www.rbkc.gov.uk/sites/default/files/media/documents/SoPN%20Kensington%20and%20Bayswater%20Constituency.pdf10 candidates ADAM, Mona - Green Party BUCHAN, Felicity - The Conservative Party Candidate BURCA, Marc Francis - Reform UK DENT COAD, Emma - Independent HOUNGBO, William - Liberal Democrat O`MAHONY, Una Marie - Party of Women PHILLIPS, Roger David - Christian People's Alliance POWELL, Joe - Labour Party PRINCE ANKIT LOVE, Emperor of India - no description STEVENS, John Christopher Courtenay - Rejoin EU |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 7, 2024 17:20:56 GMT
Was Emma Dent Coad's indy run expected - I seem to have missed that one...
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birkinabe
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winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 7, 2024 17:25:01 GMT
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Post by redtony on Jun 7, 2024 21:18:20 GMT
As soon as she was blocked from being on the longlist a year ago she reigned from the Labour Party and anounced she has plenty of former LP members campaigning with her But she will not get more than 4000 which will dent the labour vote but the swing to labour will ensure it is a labour win
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 9, 2024 8:04:58 GMT
Labour did very well here in the Assembly election and has a lot of votes to squeeze from 2019. Emma Dent Coad has been a Councillor for almost 20 years here, but she's unknown to the constituency's Westminster part and most of the Kensington bit (she's a Councillor in North Ken). That said, Bayswater does have a sizeable Arab population, some of whom might vote for Emma Dent Coad or someone else other than Labour over Gaza. I spoke to Cllr. Dent Coad a couple of years ago - talked about Grenfell a fair bit, but I think international issues could help her somewhat. The fall in the Tory vote (and Labour squeezing the Lib Dems after their inflated 2019 showing) will see them home and dry here.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 9, 2024 9:07:26 GMT
Emma Dent Coad is obviously not unknown to any of the Kensington part of this constituency since she was the MP for 2 years. However I do not think that she has the personal vote she is convinced she has. She is pretty charmless and I thought that was the case even when my view of her was more favourable than it is now. I think your analysis is basically correct though.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 9, 2024 9:38:06 GMT
What happened to her at the last GE remains disgraceful, but as with Faiza Shaheen she has shown she does not react well to adversity.
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Post by redtony on Jun 9, 2024 20:42:07 GMT
what happened to her being blocked by Labour from being the Labour candidate was out of order but thats politics for you she should have not resigned from the Labour Party and stand as an Independent candidate
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 9, 2024 20:56:21 GMT
no, it was not out of order. She has a pretty poor record on antisemitism & deserved to be blocked. She isn't as far up the antisemitism scale as, say, David Miller or Jackie Walker, but she has said some pretty iffy things to say the least and has shown as far as I am aware no contrition. I still wanted her to win in 2019 as that does not alter the fact that Sam Gyimah's campaign was mendacious & disgraceful. I do not want her to do well now. Other candidates arguably deserved to be blocked less than she did, in some cases they definitely deserved to be blocked less.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 9, 2024 22:02:45 GMT
FWIW, I’m not sure the Lib Dems even cost Labour the seat last time. There was only a small swing to the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems nominating a Tory defector and running a hardline pro-EU campaign probably got them more votes in South rather than North Kensington.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2024 5:09:48 GMT
FWIW, I’m not sure the Lib Dems even cost Labour the seat last time. There was only a small swing to the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems nominating a Tory defector and running a hardline pro-EU campaign probably got them more votes in South rather than North Kensington. Yeah, but this was bollocks. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 11, 2024 11:31:55 GMT
stb12 - just to note that in terms of the poll options this would notionally be a Labour hold, I believe.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 11, 2024 11:34:36 GMT
stb12 - just to note that in terms of the poll options this would notionally be a Labour hold, I believe. Yep, should have looked at Pete’s post more carefully! I can’t seem to find a way to edit an existing poll so have removed and readded |
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Post by Strontium Dog on Jun 11, 2024 12:33:32 GMT
Yeah, but this was bollocks. Take it up with Deltapoll. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 6:07:21 GMT
I'll get some flak for this post, but here goes. Emma has been a Councillor here for nearly 20 years and was an MP for two years. I don't see her taking many (if any) votes from the Tories. However, she'll do respectably in her base around North Kensington and among Arabs, I think (due to Gaza), which means Bayswater's addition to the seat is decent for her. Lib Dems will get destroyed here (after that fluke result in 2019). Still, I could see both the big two winning this seat. The GLA results? Labour won in West Central, but they probably had the Tories ahead in this constituency (if I'm not mistaken). The Tories still got just shy of 50% of the vote in the 2022 Kensington & Chelsea council election. VAT on private school fees will damage Labour here. I suspect that the seat of Kensington & Bayswater is one of London's most private school-dependent seats after Chelsea & Fulham and Hampstead & Highgate. The Tory vote will thus hold up well here. Something like:
CON 37%
LAB 33%
IND 23%
LD 5%
OTH 2%
CON gain from LAB (notional)
However, independent Emma may not do that well.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 21, 2024 6:35:09 GMT
I'll get some flak for this post, but here goes. Emma has been a Councillor here for nearly 20 years and was an MP for two years. I don't see her taking many (if any) votes from the Tories. However, she'll do respectably in her base around North Kensington and among Arabs, I think (due to Gaza), which means Bayswater's addition to the seat is decent for her. Lib Dems will get destroyed here (after that fluke result in 2019). Still, I could see both the big two winning this seat. The GLA results? Labour won in West Central, but they probably had the Tories ahead in this constituency (if I'm not mistaken). The Tories still got just shy of 50% of the vote in the 2022 Kensington & Chelsea council election. VAT on private school fees will damage Labour here. I suspect that the seat of Kensington & Bayswater is one of London's most private school-dependent seats after Chelsea & Fulham and Hampstead & Highgate. The Tory vote will thus hold up well here. Something like: CON 37% LAB 33% IND 23% LD 5% OTH 2% CON gain from LAB (notional) However, independent Emma may not do that well. please stop this constant nonsense. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 6:44:41 GMT
Labour going after private equity and private schools (both well-represented here) and Emma standing mean this is far from the slam dunk it should be.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jun 21, 2024 6:58:14 GMT
I'll get some flak for this post, but here goes. Emma has been a Councillor here for nearly 20 years and was an MP for two years. I don't see her taking many (if any) votes from the Tories. However, she'll do respectably in her base around North Kensington and among Arabs, I think (due to Gaza), which means Bayswater's addition to the seat is decent for her. Lib Dems will get destroyed here (after that fluke result in 2019). Still, I could see both the big two winning this seat. The GLA results? Labour won in West Central, but they probably had the Tories ahead in this constituency (if I'm not mistaken). The Tories still got just shy of 50% of the vote in the 2022 Kensington & Chelsea council election. VAT on private school fees will damage Labour here. I suspect that the seat of Kensington & Bayswater is one of London's most private school-dependent seats after Chelsea & Fulham and Hampstead & Highgate. The Tory vote will thus hold up well here. Something like: CON 37% LAB 33% IND 23% LD 5% OTH 2% CON gain from LAB (notional) However, independent Emma may not do that well. please stop this constant nonsense. In comparison, I preferred AustralianSwingVoter. |
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