Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 8:13:42 GMT
please stop this constant nonsense. In comparison, I preferred AustralianSwingVoter. Who he? |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jun 21, 2024 8:18:25 GMT
Labour going after private equity and private schools (both well-represented here) and Emma standing mean this is far from the slam dunk it should be. Emma Dent Coad isn’t getting 23% of the vote or anything close to that… |
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Yaffles
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 21, 2024 8:23:41 GMT
Labour going after private equity and private schools (both well-represented here) and Emma standing mean this is far from the slam dunk it should be. Emma Dent Coad isn’t getting 23% of the vote or anything close to that… 2.3% maybe. |
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Post by John Chanin on Jun 21, 2024 8:24:03 GMT
Labour going after private equity and private schools (both well-represented here) and Emma standing mean this is far from the slam dunk it should be. Emma Dent Coad isn’t getting 23% of the vote or anything close to that… I'd be surprised if she saved her deposit, although 5-6% would not be unlikely. I think that @weld is trying to join in the conversation, and make meaningful contributions, but has both no understanding of electoral politics, or of how to communicate effectively and engage appropriately to the context. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jun 21, 2024 8:26:39 GMT
Emma Dent Coad isn’t getting 23% of the vote or anything close to that… I'd be surprised if she saved her deposit, although 5-6% would not be unlikely. I think that @weld is trying to join in the conversation, and make meaningful contributions, but has both no understanding of electoral politics, or of how to communicate effectively and engage appropriately to the context. I’m leaning toward a mixture of trolling and bias. |
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Yaffles
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Post by Yaffles on Jun 21, 2024 8:59:27 GMT
I'd be surprised if she saved her deposit, although 5-6% would not be unlikely. I think that @weld is trying to join in the conversation, and make meaningful contributions, but has both no understanding of electoral politics, or of how to communicate effectively and engage appropriately to the context. I’m leaning toward a mixture of trolling and bias. Its a shame really because every now and again he makes a good point - the Private schools policy is likely to suppress the Labour vote in wealthy areas, however how that ends up being a 23% vote share for E D-C is anyone's guess. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 9:07:14 GMT
I’m leaning toward a mixture of trolling and bias. Its a shame really because every now and again he makes a good point - the Private schools policy is likely to suppress the Labour vote in wealthy areas, however how that ends up being a 23% vote share for E D-C is anyone's guess. Sorry, that's the autism context-blindness. No, that policy will not help Emma, but it will help the ailing RBKC Tories to hold up, which they usually do - 2022 was almost an exact repeat of 2018, and although they've lost the West Central seat finally, I contend that that's more to do with Hammersmith & Fulham and Westminster where Labour are pretty dominant going into the GE. I'm not insinuating that Emma will benefit from Labour's 'tax the rich' economic populism, just that this isn't quite the right seat for those policies to see them home easily, like it might be in a rust belt constituency like Rother Valley. I think the disaffected wealthy denizens of Notting Hill and Kensington will probably hold their noses and vote for Ms Buchan here or they may stick with the Lib Dems since they already plumped for that party once. What vote Emma Dent Coad gets is due to the two g's - Gaza and Grenfell. Perhaps I am biased having spoken to Emma a fair bit during the 2022 RBKC locals, and having some sympathy for her deselection, but I can assure you my support for primary elections is for all parties, and not just to kneecap Labour with prickly characters like Faiza Shaheen or Emma Dent Coad. Apologies for the clumsy writing of this post. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 21, 2024 10:04:52 GMT
In comparison, I preferred AustralianSwingVoter. Who he? An annoying 13-year-old Australian with ADHD, probably autistic, a high level of knowledge of UK politics and elections, and very enthusiastic about commenting and making predictions. He was annoying people by repeatedly demanding responses to his posts and answers to his questions, and didn’t seem to understand that other people didn’t have the time or inclination to reply to him every time. For that reason he eventually had to be banned. He’s 21 now |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 1, 2024 10:25:50 GMT
Projecting your message on to Grenfell Tower, good grief.
Edit: she has said her campaign was not behind this.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 15:47:05 GMT
I'm not trying to kick a hornet's nest, but why have we got LD gain as an option? They have a single Councillor, as many, in fact as Emma Dent Coad has (herself).
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jul 1, 2024 17:38:12 GMT
Projecting your message on to Grenfell Tower, good grief. Edit: she has said her campaign was not behind this. Who? |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 1, 2024 17:40:56 GMT
Projecting your message on to Grenfell Tower, good grief. Edit: she has said her campaign was not behind this. Who? It seems the tweet was deleted. The original was a tweet by Emma Dent Coad with images of sentences about Keir Starmer's links to a particular company relevant to Grenfell Tower, on the tower. However she subsequently said her campaign was not behind it and she didn't like the stunt. If this post referencing deleted material is not in order do let me know. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2024 1:38:34 GMT
Having interviewed Emma, this doesn't seem like her style at all. Is Grenfell a big issue for her? Yes, it's at the end of her road. However, she knew people who died that day, and I don't think she would do this sort of crass, gutter politics shit. Whatever you think of Councillor Coad, she has been pretty consistent on standing up for Grenfell survivors for the last seven years. She has had foot in mouth disease before (e.g. repeating comments about Shaun Bailey - "token ghetto boy"), however.
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jul 5, 2024 17:56:58 GMT
One of the lowest swings in the nation.
Labour +1.6%
Tory -4.6%
Swing: 3.1%
Reform somehow received 6% of the vote.
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batman
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Post by batman on Jul 5, 2024 18:45:45 GMT
In many ways, a low swing is logical for this constituency. It has very strongly entrenched areas for both the Labour & Conservative parties. But of course there was a big swing in 2017 which has shifted the balance, and perhaps permanently.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 18:47:05 GMT
LOL Emma Dent Coad lost her deposit and only polled 1,800 votes. Faiza Shaheen she ain't.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 5, 2024 18:48:40 GMT
I think it's fair to say that even among those in the Labour Party who were not badly disposed towards Emma Dent Coad, there is a feeling that her relatively poor showing (4.4%) was just desserts for a pure spoiler candidacy.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2024 6:24:39 GMT
I think it's fair to say that even among those in the Labour Party who were not badly disposed towards Emma Dent Coad, there is a feeling that her relatively poor showing (4.4%) was just desserts for a pure spoiler candidacy. If she had any sense, she'd have defected to the Greens, but 1) she doesn't have much of it; 2) would they want her?; 3) would they allow her to stand for Parliament? |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 7, 2024 10:54:23 GMT
FWIW, I’m not sure the Lib Dems even cost Labour the seat last time. There was only a small swing to the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems nominating a Tory defector and running a hardline pro-EU campaign probably got them more votes in South rather than North Kensington. Given how small the swing was here, this looks to be the case (which often wasn’t the case in other seats where the Lib Dem vote collapsed). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 12, 2024 21:50:26 GMT
The percentage Labour majority at 6.9% is only fractionally higher in this notional Labour hold than it is in the Cities of London & Westminster
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