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Post by arnieg on Jun 28, 2024 7:58:23 GMT
MRP more realistic than a properly conducted poll? Why? 2017 and 2019 MRPs were (generally speaking) more on the money than the deluge of shite pumped out and called 'constituency polls' in 2015. A 'constituency poll' had Cambridge as a close race between Labour and the Lib Dems in 2019 FFS. People are only pumping it up because it shows them what they want to see. I trust MRPs more. If as you assert MRPs are more accurate then you need to take note that with the one exception they all show a Labour win. inglesp.github.io/apogee/?prediction-type=any&2024=othA better argument would be that MRP polls are better indicators except in seats with strong fifth/sixth party candidates. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 28, 2024 7:59:09 GMT
But this MRP has electoral calculus attached to it... nuff said.
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Post by batman on Jun 28, 2024 7:59:09 GMT
re Corbyn not being Labour not being a known fact, weld, I really don't think you're right about that. Surely the fact that Jeremy Corbyn is no longer Labour is pretty well-known nationally, and even better-known in his own constituency. I suspect you're only going to find very small numbers of voters who don't know that, either the very politically unaware (who probably won't vote anyway) or those with almost no English even though some of those will know anyway. The vast majority of voters here will be able to speak & understand English. I still have my vote in the poll as Corbyn win but I don't think you're right about this at all save for a very small number of cases. I may change my vote before Thursday depending on what I hear & read.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 8:07:06 GMT
re Corbyn not being Labour not being a known fact, weld, I really don't think you're right about that. Surely the fact that Jeremy Corbyn is no longer Labour is pretty well-known nationally, and even better-known in his own constituency. I suspect you're only going to find very small numbers of voters who don't know that, either the very politically unaware (who probably won't vote anyway) or those with almost no English even though some of those will know anyway. The vast majority of voters here will be able to speak & understand English. I still have my vote in the poll as Corbyn win but I don't think you're right about this at all save for a very small number of cases. I may change my vote before Thursday depending on what I hear & read. Fair enough, and I hope, and I'm sure all sides would agree on this, people know who and what they're voting for regardless of their candidate. As an aside, I'm working at a coffee shop in Tollington ward (on Hornsey Road) and there are legion Jeremy Corbyn posters. In the afternoon I'll be in Holborn to campaign. Across these seats, it feels like some down to the wire primary in the US House elections in the Bronx or Queens or something! |
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Post by batman on Jun 28, 2024 8:10:24 GMT
I'm very sorry you're campaigning in Holborn. I regard Andrew Feinstein as an anti-Semite & would urge you to reconsider. Yes I do know he's Jewish, that makes no difference I'm afraid.
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jun 28, 2024 8:11:02 GMT
People are only pumping it up because it shows them what they want to see. I trust MRPs more. With respect, you have ramped other candidates in other seats, sometimes in a fairly jejune manner and on much less evidence than this even when both evidence, reason and the majority of posters were saying otherwise. If Corbyn wins, my incorrect prediction is here for all to see, but I also won't grant Electoral Calculus or anyone similar any credit for getting it correct given that many of the rest of their predictions are far wilder than this and will be even more likely to be incorrect. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 8:12:49 GMT
People are only pumping it up because it shows them what they want to see. I trust MRPs more. With respect, you have ramped other candidates in other seats, sometimes in a fairly jejune manner and on much less evidence than this even when both evidence, reason and the majority of posters were saying otherwise. If Corbyn wins, my incorrect prediction is here for all to see, but I also won't grant Electoral Calculus or anyone similar any credit for getting it correct given that many of the rest of their predictions are far wilder than this and will be even more likely to be incorrect. Yes. I'm holding myself hostage to fortune. I agree, Electoral Calculus is mostly horseshit. I guess my inclination to share the poll was based on a gut feeling from my close proximity to the constituency, decent knowledge of it and its demographics, and the enthusiasm seen on both sides (or lack thereof). =/= endorsing EC shite. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 28, 2024 8:17:25 GMT
I'm very sorry you're campaigning in Holborn. I regard Andrew Feinstein as an anti-Semite & would urge you to reconsider. Yes I do know he's Jewish, that makes no difference I'm afraid. Anyone who doesn't agree with you, are an anti-semite. |
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Post by batman on Jun 28, 2024 8:23:42 GMT
No, that's a lazy & typically pathetic thing to say. You are an anti-Semite Mike, but not everybody who disagrees with me is. Far from it. And no I will not withdraw what I have said. It's the truth. You have a problem with Jews. You're an anti-Semite.
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 28, 2024 8:37:35 GMT
No, that's a lazy & typically pathetic thing to say. You are an anti-Semite Mike, but not everybody who disagrees with me is. Far from it. And no I will not withdraw what I have said. It's the truth. You have a problem with Jews. You're an anti-Semite. Your "problem". I think you are wrong, I do not agree about your views. |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 28, 2024 8:54:56 GMT
Yet again we see the absurd trope, insult that a person hates all Jews because they are critical of Israel/supportive of Palestine. It's childish and idiotic and injudicious. But it's carried on the waves by 98% of the media and hardly ever questioned and so persists and so fair minded ppl who want to stand up for international law and the Pal case, are being terrorised into being mute. No fair minded person should be doing this.
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Post by batman on Jun 28, 2024 8:59:05 GMT
To be an anti-Semite does not necessarily mean you hate all Jews. Some anti-Semites do, others like Mike don’t. But I wouldn’t expect you to understand that.
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Post by batman on Jun 28, 2024 9:03:00 GMT
You can insult me all you like after this, I won’t be replying. And that applies to at least two other forum members.
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Post by norflondon on Jun 28, 2024 9:12:11 GMT
The dodgy "poll" above has had no effect on changing odds, still 4/7 Lab. That's approx 70% probability of gaining this seat.
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 28, 2024 9:30:54 GMT
The dodgy "poll" above has had no effect on changing odds, still 4/7 Lab. That's approx 70% probability of gaining this seat. In fact it's less than 60%. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 11:07:49 GMT
And would you look at that? We have Islington North as a toss-up between Labour and Corbyn.
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Post by norflondon on Jun 28, 2024 12:48:13 GMT
cathyc, yes 4/7 agreed it's strictly 63.64%
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Post by arnieg on Jun 28, 2024 13:15:40 GMT
cathyc, yes 4/7 agreed it's strictly 63.64% Depends how 'loose' the book is. The percentage odds of each party winning will add up to something like say 105%. If so then 20/21 × 63.6% is 60.5%. |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Jun 28, 2024 13:24:55 GMT
cathyc, yes 4/7 agreed it's strictly 63.64% Depends how 'loose' the book is. The percentage odds of each party winning will add up to something like say 105%. If so then 20/21 × 63.6% is 60.5%. In this case it adds up to 111% so it takes it down even further to about 56% |
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Post by norflondon on Jun 28, 2024 13:31:59 GMT
Yep thanks. Easier to look at Betfair where there is less mark up and the book is less over-round and there we see Lab 57% Ind 46% - without adjusting
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